November 2014 General Discussion

[buckeye]

Absolutely fantastic day today.  Made it up to 65, which was several degrees higher than the point had.  MLI at 67 atm. 

 

Got the last of the mowing/mulching done and everything's put away for the year.  Yard looks great.  Now, bring on the snow!

 

Gorgeous here too!   Second best option, second only to a raging blizzard.

[michsnowfreak]

Thanks, that's exactly what I was wondering. 

Look at 1975 & 1976.....

 

1975 with a mean temp of 46.8F, WAY above normal, saw 6.5" of snow. The next year, 1976, saw a mean temp of 33.5F, WAY below normal and 13.3F COLDER than the year before, with only 1.4" of snow.

 

Really, instead of doing all that work, I could have stopped right here by just posting this -

 

NOV.......temp....snow

1975......46.8F.....6.5"

1976......33.5F.....1.4"

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Miserable day here with overcast skies, an east wind and a temperature of 45F. Looks to be nice tomorrow for Remembrance Day before the arctic air moves in. I hope the sunshine materializes!

[BuffaloWeather]

60 and sunny today. Felt absolutely incredible after a long stretch of cloudy days. Went for a nice run today as I had off of work. Tomorrow I also have off and looking forward to going Frisbee golfing. Supposed to be 65-68 and sunny!! Then reality sets in.

[Geos]

Won't be long now before the cold arrives. Doppler radar picking up the front moving across SE WI right now.

 

[IWXwx]

I just thinking about those in lake effect areas that hope for above normal water temps to enhance LES.  With the prospect of sub freezing temps for the foreseeable future, you better strike while the iron is hot, because lake temps are going to be dropping like a rock.  Early freeze up this year?

[michsnowfreak]

I just thinking about those in lake effect areas that hope for above normal water temps to enhance LES. With the prospect of sub freezing temps for the foreseeable future, you better strike while the iron is hot, because lake temps are going to be dropping like a rock. Early freeze up this year?

I was thinking the SAME thing. It could be an epic snowpack year with the dense base being layer down...IF the lake doesn't freeze soon.

[Whitelakeroy]

I was thinking the SAME thing. It could be an epic snowpack year with the dense base being layer down...IF the lake doesn't freeze soon.

If you recall last year at one point Lake MI reached a near peak ice cover but then a major storm came and the winds opened up a good amount of the lake again allowing for some good LES. 

 

We want to keep a stormy pattern and not a prolonged arctic highs sitting on us with light winds or winds from the constant/same direction.  The stormy pattern is important cause you need the winds to shift directions so that ice will continue to break up and compact the ice.

 

In the end we should have more ice than normal and at times they may nearly freeze over (unless of course this cold pattern reverses) but as long as we can keep the good stormy pattern the Great Lakes should be OK.

[IWXwx]

If you call last year winds make te

 

If you recall last year at one point Lake MI reached a near peak ice cover but then a major storm came and the winds opened up a good amount of the lake again allowing for some good LES. 

 

We want to keep a stormy pattern and not a prolonged arctic highs sitting on us with light winds or winds from the constant/same direction.  The stormy pattern is important cause you need the winds to shift directions so that ice will continue to break up and compact the ice.

 

In the end we should have more ice than normal and at times they may nearly freeze over (unless of course this cold pattern reverses) but as long as we can keep the good stormy pattern the Great Lakes should be OK.

 

I understand, I was just thinking out loud about the difference between what you described about last winter's ice conditions vs. warmer, more open water, leading to a greater chances of major dumpages.

[Mogget]

Sleet in SW Madison now.

[Whitelakeroy]

I understand, I was just thinking out loud about the difference between what you described about last winter's ice conditions vs. warmer, more open water, leading to a greater chances of major dumpages.

The simplified key to LES is the right delta T's, good stretch of open water, some decent steady winds and not having a dry air mass ... get this right an you will have some major LES.  The more moist the air mass is the better the chance of significant events.

 

Too warm of lake an there are times the lake shore communities would warm up causing the snow to melt along the shore in the early events.  I had this happen at MTU before in November where inland/south in the UP it was snowing and at Houghton it was rain or rain/snow mix.

[Harry Perry]

The simplified key to LES is the right delta T's, good stretch of open water, some decent steady winds and not having a dry air mass ... get this right an you will have some major LES.  The more moist the air mass is the better the chance of significant events.

 

Well said. The amount of snow that accumulates generally west of 131 (west wind events - sometimes all the way to I-69 by where I live) is just amazing.

Last year I found a vehicle on craigslist to purchase in Muskegon. It was the first week of December, certainly cold area wide. Had a good amount of snow on the ground already here (6"?? or so), but it was a cold, windy and dry evening. So a quick look at the radar showed relatively light returns in the NW flow areas, but nothing substantial, so.. I decided to make the trip.

I left from Marshall at 4 in the afternoon, and by the time I got to Martin it was already dark... And snowing... Quite heavily! I got on Radarscope to see yet again, only light returns (5-10dbz). I continued on and by the time I got to Coopersville, all hell broke loose. It was snowing so heavily that I couldn't see 2' in front of my headlights. Cars in the ditch everywhere. Nearly rear ended someone myself. It was nuts. Had the heated seats on and ended up getting so worked up and sweaty, I rolled my window down and lost my hat out the window. Have no idea how that happened, but felt it should be shared.

By the time we got to Muskegon... 7pm... There was approximately a foot on the ground, and it was still dumping. Again, checking the radar and only showing light returns. I was baffled. Ended up staying in Muskegon that night at a hotel. Woke up and it was like Christmas. Still snowing heavy, picked up about 7" of fluff overnight. For a minute, I highly considered moving west.

Got back to Battle Creek. Still dry and windy. Not a flake more dropped since I had left.

Lake effect is some powerful stuff. If you want a snowstorm, pretty much pick your date and head to the west coast of Lake Michigan. You'll get a snow storm while it's sunny everywhere else.

[TugHillMatt]

 

Well said. The amount of snow that accumulates generally west of 131 (west wind events - sometimes all the way to I-69 by where I live) is just amazing.

Last year I found a vehicle on craigslist to purchase in Muskegon. It was the first week of December, certainly cold area wide. Had a good amount of snow on the ground already here (6"?? or so), but it was a cold, windy and dry evening. So a quick look at the radar showed relatively light returns in the NW flow areas, but nothing substantial, so.. I decided to make the trip.

I left from Marshall at 4 in the afternoon, and by the time I got to Martin it was already dark... And snowing... Quite heavily! I got on Radarscope to see yet again, only light returns (5-10dbz). I continued on and by the time I got to Coopersville, all hell broke loose. It was snowing so heavily that I couldn't see 2' in front of my headlights. Cars in the ditch everywhere. Nearly rear ended someone myself. It was nuts. Had the heated seats on and ended up getting so worked up and sweaty, I rolled my window down and lost my hat out the window. Have no idea how that happened, but felt it should be shared.

By the time we got to Muskegon... 7pm... There was approximately a foot on the ground, and it was still dumping. Again, checking the radar and only showing light returns. I was baffled. Ended up staying in Muskegon that night at a hotel. Woke up and it was like Christmas. Still snowing heavy, picked up about 7" of fluff overnight. For a minute, I highly considered moving west.

Got back to Battle Creek. Still dry and windy. Not a flake more dropped since I had left.

Lake effect is some powerful stuff. If you want a snowstorm, pretty much pick your date and head to the west coast of Lake Michigan. You'll get a snow storm while it's sunny everywhere else.

 

I get even more here just outside of Muskegon. Where I live, we can also get the northwest events that Muskegon sometimes misses if it is too northerly of a flow. Sometimes it is the opposite, where on radar it looks like it should be snowing heavily, but not much is falling. Usually that is if the wind is strong and tearing the clouds apart. Last winter was pretty sweet in these parts.

 

Just by what you describing, it sounds like more a SW flow event. Those are AWESOME around here and can dump a foot of snow in 6 hours. It has happened every winter I have been here over the past 5 years.

[Chitown Storm]

If the forecast holds for the next 7 days (which looks very doable), MPX will tie its longest sub-freezing temp stretch ever in the month of November at 8 days. The highest temp forecasted is today (27F). High of 18 next Tuesday.

[Chicago WX]

Is it mid-January already?

 

TONIGHT  

MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE  
MID 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND  
30 MPH.    
WEDNESDAY  
MUCH COLDER. PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.  
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.    
WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.  
NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.    
THURSDAY  
PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST  
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.    
THURSDAY NIGHT  
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20.    
FRIDAY  
MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S.    
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY  
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER  
20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.    
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY  
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT  
CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.    
SUNDAY NIGHT  
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.    
MONDAY  
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.  
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S.

 

 

That's the LAF zone forecast. Pretty impressive for mid-November. Normal high/low temps during the period go from 53˚/36˚ tomorrow to 50˚/34˚ for next Monday.

[Chitown Storm]

Some additional eye-opening stats: while 'ice out' historical data is much more prevalent, 'ice in' data is also a big deal on the lakes in these parts. The upcoming cold streak is expected to create a good deal of ice on lakes in the MPX zone. If that happens, it would be the 2nd earliest ever. The earliest was in 1991 when lakes froze over during the Halloween blizzard that dumped 28" of snow. We're definitely entering a wicked stretch.

[daddylonglegs]

About 2 inches of snow...32F and strong winds....brrrr

 

Looking at NWS forecast... i won't be ABOVE 30F for at least the next week... ouch!

[Gilbertfly]

Numerous smaller flocks of geese hightailing it south overhead today ...  decent start to the day, but the chill is setting in. 

[BuffaloWeather]

67 and sunny today. Went for a 6 mile run, felt great.

[Whitelakeroy]

Some additional eye-opening stats: while 'ice out' historical data is much more prevalent, 'ice in' data is also a big deal on the lakes in these parts. The upcoming cold streak is expected to create a good deal of ice on lakes in the MPX zone. If that happens, it would be the 2nd earliest ever. The earliest was in 1991 when lakes froze over during the Halloween blizzard that dumped 28" of snow. We're definitely entering a wicked stretch.

I remember that 1991 storm as I was at Tech ... we got a big t-storm in the middle of the night with a lightning strike (it was considered to be a possible ball lightning strike) that caught a house in town on fire.  The thunder woke up just about everyone in 3 different dorms and was the talk at every class that day.  Then on the back side we got 8" of snow that turned into a massive 3 dorm snowball fight that evening 

[josh_4184]

 

Well said. The amount of snow that accumulates generally west of 131 (west wind events - sometimes all the way to I-69 by where I live) is just amazing.

Last year I found a vehicle on craigslist to purchase in Muskegon. It was the first week of December, certainly cold area wide. Had a good amount of snow on the ground already here (6"?? or so), but it was a cold, windy and dry evening. So a quick look at the radar showed relatively light returns in the NW flow areas, but nothing substantial, so.. I decided to make the trip.

I left from Marshall at 4 in the afternoon, and by the time I got to Martin it was already dark... And snowing... Quite heavily! I got on Radarscope to see yet again, only light returns (5-10dbz). I continued on and by the time I got to Coopersville, all hell broke loose. It was snowing so heavily that I couldn't see 2' in front of my headlights. Cars in the ditch everywhere. Nearly rear ended someone myself. It was nuts. Had the heated seats on and ended up getting so worked up and sweaty, I rolled my window down and lost my hat out the window. Have no idea how that happened, but felt it should be shared.

By the time we got to Muskegon... 7pm... There was approximately a foot on the ground, and it was still dumping. Again, checking the radar and only showing light returns. I was baffled. Ended up staying in Muskegon that night at a hotel. Woke up and it was like Christmas. Still snowing heavy, picked up about 7" of fluff overnight. For a minute, I highly considered moving west.

Got back to Battle Creek. Still dry and windy. Not a flake more dropped since I had left.

Lake effect is some powerful stuff. If you want a snowstorm, pretty much pick your date and head to the west coast of Lake Michigan. You'll get a snow storm while it's sunny everywhere else.

LES doesn't always show well on radar due to being so low in the atmosphere, especially farther away from the radar site. 

[beavis1729]

Obviously not in our sub-forum...but today's high in Denver was only 16, breaking the record low max of 19 set in 1916.

And tomorrow, the high may only be 12. The normal high is 54. Crazy stuff.

[huronicane]

Obviously not in our sub-forum...but today's high in Denver was only 16, breaking the record low max of 19 set in 1916.

And tomorrow, the high may only be 12. The normal high is 54. Crazy stuff.

 

I'm living that right now. Snow is flying here and it's a bit chilly out. Aiming for an inch or two of snow. Zero or below zero the next couple nights. Need to get my flannel sheets out.

[Geos]

A much more mild 33° here compared to eastern Colorado!

[cyclone77]

First flakes since Oct 4th today.  Picked up 0.17" of rain before it changed over to sleet and light snow very briefly before precip moved out. 

[daddylonglegs]

la crosse

 

BEHIND THIS TROUGH...MUCH COLDER 850 MB TEMPERATURES /-18C TO
-20C/ MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS HAS RETURN INTERVAL OF
ONCE IN 30 YEARS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SINCE THIS IS SO
ANOMALOUS AND THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THIS
COLDEST AIR WILL ARRIVE...STAYED WITH THE SUPER BLEND FOR NOW.

[BuffaloWeather]

61 degrees at 10:10 PM on Nov 11th, not bad.

[Geos]

Partial clearing has allowed the temp to dip to 30°. 21° in the point for tonight.

[Chicago WX]

MQT up to 31.5" of snow on the month. Already the snowiest November since 2008 when a total of 43.6" was recorded that month. As well, this November currently stands as the 14th snowiest on record. 

 

Top 10 snowiest Novembers for Marquette:

1) 48.9" in 1991

2) 43.6" in 2008

3) 42.0" in 1988

4) 41.7" in 1989

5) 40.4" in 1903

6) 40.3" in 2005

7) 40.0" in 1911

8) 39.3" in 2001

9) 38.4" in 2002

10) 38.0" in 2000

 

Note: the official site moved into a "more favorable snow location" in the late 70's, so most of the records are from 1979 and onward.

[Jonger]

MQT up to 31.5" of snow on the month. Already the snowiest November since 2008 when a total of 43.6" was recorded that month. As well, this November currently stands as the 14th snowiest on record. 

 

Top 10 snowiest Novembers for Marquette:

1) 48.9" in 1991

2) 43.6" in 2008

3) 42.0" in 1988

4) 41.7" in 1989

5) 40.4" in 1903

6) 40.3" in 2005

7) 40.0" in 1911

8) 39.3" in 2001

9) 38.4" in 2002

10) 38.0" in 2000

 

Note: the official site moved into a "more favorable snow location" in the late 70's, so most of the records are from 1979 and onward.

 

Given the forecast and pattern, it seems likely that Marquette will beat the all time record. They will probably be within 8 inches of the record by Saturday, with half the month remaining.