michsnowfreak Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 ya never can tell. They had two inches of snow "on the ground" last Saturday around Mt. Morris MI. I would had thought the ground was way to warm to accumulate that much last weekend. NWS Chicago posted this pic of the lake effect snow in NW IN on Halloween. Snow not only on the grass, but on pavement as well. Warm ground can play a role of course but if it's coming down hard enough, I'm not sure the ground can be warm enough to stop it from sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 next Tues has the chance of not getting above freezing here... something to look forward too. Looks like our days in the 50Fs are numbered... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 Just making it above 50° in this area. Clouds have been on the increase since 11am or so. Yeah I think these days are numbered too, DLL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Made it to 60 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Windy as hell out there right now beneath these light showers. Made it to 60 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 6, 2014 Author Share Posted November 6, 2014 Getting some RN- now. Breezy here, but nothing like last Friday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 With November looking like a near-lock to be below normal here (sorry, CFS), its time to start the countdown....Detroit may, for the first time in my life, make the top 20 coldest years on record. The last time a year made the top 20 coldest was 1980, & while we have quite the peppering in there from that timeframe (1967, 1972, 1978, 1979, & 1980 all are in Detroits top 20 coldest years), prior to 1967, you have to go to 1940 then 1926 for a year in the top 20 coldest! (8 of the 20 are from the 1800s). And only 4.5" of snow is needed to make 2014 the snowiest calendar year on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Getting some RN- now. Breezy here, but nothing like last Friday! LOT actually issued a wind advisory for the IN lakeshore counties for tomorrow. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN ABOUT 5MB BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS WITH LOCAL WRF ARW AND NAM BOTH DEPICTING A BULLSEYE OF 4-5MB/3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW MIDDAY. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL SUPPORT STRONG NW TO NNW WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COULD BRIEFLY FLIRT WITH WIND ADV CRITERIA ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT PEAK GUSTS IN THE 30-40MPH RANGE SO HELD OFF ON AN ADV MOST AREAS. THE ONE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE LAKE IN NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE THE ADDED INSTABILITY DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS AND LESS FRICTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTS OF 45-55MPH NEAR THE LAKE. HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS NEAR THE LAKE. THE HIGH END GALE TO BRIEFLY NEAR STORM FORCE NW-NNW WINDS SHOULD DRIVE WAVES ALONG EASTERN LAKE CO IN AND PORTER COUNTY INTO THE 14-18FT RANGE. AFTER COORDINATION WITH INDIANA DUNES STATE PARK HAVE OPTED TO ISSUED A LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS FOR THURSDAY. THE DUNES NOTED THAT THERE WAS QUITE A BIT OF DAMAGE FROM THE HALLOWEEN STORM AND THAT STORM ALSO WASHED AWAY A LOT OF THE SAND BARS THAT TYPICALLY OFFER UP PROTECTION IN THESE EVENTS...WHICH MEANS AREAS COULD BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO PROBLEMS WITH TOMORROW'S HIGH WIND/WAVE EVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 With November looking like a near-lock to be below normal here (sorry, CFS), its time to start the countdown....Detroit may, for the first time in my life, make the top 20 coldest years on record. The last time a year made the top 20 coldest was 1980, & while we have quite the peppering in there from that timeframe (1967, 1972, 1978, 1979, & 1980 all are in Detroits top 20 coldest years), prior to 1967, you have to go to 1940 then 1926 for a year in the top 20 coldest! (8 of the 20 are from the 1800s). And only 4.5" of snow is needed to make 2014 the snowiest calendar year on record. I think that should be an absolute lock barring some kind of near-historic early winter 98-99 type pattern. Seems like the opposite of that time period already. I know it's pretty far off from materializing, and it could turn out to just be just potential, but winter looks to be getting one of the earliest starts around here in quite some time. Sure there have been seasons that will have had earlier winter storms, but I'm talking consistently winter-like temperatures and patterns. Almost as often as not, it doesn't start truly feeling like winter until nearly Christmas time. It would be cool if it actually felt like mid-winter by then. I know it was a horrendous decade for "Christmastime snow" and whatnot at Detroit, but only 26" of snow total fell before December 25th from 1992 to 1999. Last year alone we had 15.0" of snow total by December 25th, which of course turned out to only be the tip of the iceberg of a truly once in a lifetime type winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Euro been flip-flopping a bit with the Mon-Tue system, but the 0z run is a decent snowfall for northern IA/southern WI/northern IL/southern lower MI. Ensembles not quite as enthused and a bit north of the OP...though there are some individual members that hit ORD pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Been a very long time since we had a soaking rain. Digging down the soil is very dry and powder like in the top soils to a depth of 6" Even the lower clay based soils are dry to some extent. Looking towards the future the precipitation pattern while active in frequency it is very lacking qualitatively. This worries me heading into the winter months.... This fall has been somewhat tranquil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 6, 2014 Author Share Posted November 6, 2014 Getting a very cold rain right now with a strong NW breeze. 38° currently. There's been a little snow mixing in on the backside of the rain area in eastern WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 12z GFS trying to cook one up for next Mon-Tue...1000 low in the TX panhandle at 102 hours...but then gets strung-out/weaker as it moves northeast. Still, some snow for parts of IA, WI, and IL though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 12z GFS trying to cook one up for next Mon-Tue...1000 low in the TX panhandle at 102 hours...but then gets strung-out/weaker as it moves northeast. Still, some snow for parts of IA, WI, and IL though. Yeah pretty good thump away from the lake. Good 6" event that cyclone needs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Yeah pretty good thump away from the lake. Good 6" event that cyclone needs lol lol, yeah. It'd be nice to get that one out of the way for him...rather quickly. EDIT: 12z parallel/upgraded GFS is stronger...more north...more consolidated. Nice hit for parts of MN, IA, WI, and MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Squirrels quite busy today. Other than the usual robins, cardinals, and house sparrows...I really haven't seen any of the other birds around...blackbirds, ducks, geese etc. ... normally it's a pretty active time of year for them around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 6, 2014 Author Share Posted November 6, 2014 Squirrels quite busy today. Other than the usual robins, cardinals, and house sparrows...I really haven't seen any of the other birds around...blackbirds, ducks, geese etc. ... normally it's a pretty active time of year for them around here Same here. I've seen the smaller song birds around, but not the Geese and ducks much. Maybe they know something is up and are already further south! About 39° with a wind chills sub 30° right now in Racine. Almost cold enough for snow this morning. Maybe next time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Yeah the upgraded GFS really nails the SE corner of MN, northern IA and central WI. Let's see how good the semi-completed upgrade really is. I heard it wasn't going to be fully upgraded until December. lol, yeah. It'd be nice to get that one out of the way for him...rather quickly. EDIT: 12z parallel/upgraded GFS is stronger...more north...more consolidated. Nice hit for parts of MN, IA, WI, and MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 12z GGEM/EURO are in line with the Parallel 12z GFS. Climo would obviously support the GGEM/EURO's solution. But the height falls for this time of year, and temps aloft, are still very anomalous. So no solution can be ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 +NAO supports north and west part of this forum for that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 6, 2014 Author Share Posted November 6, 2014 AO is about to take a dive, so that might influence the system as well. Just cloudy, cold and windy this afternoon. Only managed 0.02" of rain from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 hourly for next week looks about a month early.... imby (60440).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 beautiful morning. everything is so quiet and still. temp down to 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 beautiful morning. everything is so quiet and still. temp down to 20. Now that is a thing of beauty!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 Scraping the car windows in the morning is becoming more and more common now. Low of 29° this morning. Up near 40° now. Such a peaceful scene where you are Bo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 There's absolutely no relief what so ever from the cold weather on the 12z GFS, through 384hr... There's also several other opportunities for synoptic snows (on the same GFS run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 There's absolutely no relief what so ever from the cold weather on the 12z GFS, through 384hr... There's also several other opportunities for synoptic snows (on the same GFS run). Cold November means a warm December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Cold November means a warm December. Until it doesn't.... I do have to say, this might be the most intense and early starts to winter I have ever witnessed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 i know its the 12z GFS and a week out...but oh my God..i know it always shows it way too cold in this range, but man...incredible. I'd have to dig up records for next week, but its got to be close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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