Geos Posted November 2, 2014 Author Share Posted November 2, 2014 Temps are tanking tonight. Many locations at or below freezing in the area already at 7:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Not sure if it's been mentioned anywhere in this sub, but the new 13km GFS (current version is 27km) is going operational Dec 17th. The parallel version of the 13km is already running, and is available on WxBell. Probably available at other model sites as well, but I haven't looked. Should be interesting to see how the new version performs this season. You can also find the parallel gfs at tropicaltidbits.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Already down to 29 here. Forecast is calling for 23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 27 already here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 31°F for the low so far makes tonight the first freeze IMBY and it's going to be a hard one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 2, 2014 Author Share Posted November 2, 2014 Down to 26° here with some light ground fog starting to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 25 here. With what looks like pretty ideal radiational cooling conditions, I have to think we have a shot to get down around 20 or, gasp, upper teens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 25 here. With what looks like pretty ideal radiational cooling conditions, I have to think we have a shot to get down around 20 or, gasp, upper teens? Looks like only 21. Or does that channel 18 guy keep a thermometer in the freezer just for these occasions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Looks like only 21. Or does that channel 18 guy keep a thermometer in the freezer just for these occasions? You got it wrong...he keeps it in the oven. But yeah, 21˚ looks to be the low this morning at LAF. Hit that on my "trusty" thermometer as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Wasn't sure what these were when i saw them yesterday///not my pictures...from the NwS Fallstreaks...High to mid level clouds, such as altocumulus, are often composed of tiny water droplets that are much colder than freezing, but have yet to freeze. These "supercooled" water droplets need a "reason" to freeze, which usually comes in the form of ice crystals. Planes passing through the cloud layer can bring these ice crystals. Once the ice crystals are introduced, the water droplet quickly freeze, grow and start to fall. A hole is left behind, which will start to expand outward as neighboring droplets start to freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 00z Euro shows a compact, but very vigorous clipper rolling into northern IL on Thursday. Temp profiles are cold enough for snow over a decent swath. Euro lays down several inches over southern Wisconsin, and snow would fall as far south as northern IL. EDIT: Wow, the Euro shows a nice 60kt CCB immediately behind the compact low Thursday. Powerful little system if this pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 DTW dropped to 26F this morning for the first hard freeze, the standouts were 15F at ARB and 18F at White Lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 00z Euro shows a compact, but very vigorous clipper rolling into northern IL on Thursday. Temp profiles are cold enough for snow over a decent swath. Euro lays down several inches over southern Wisconsin, and snow would fall as far south as northern IL. EDIT: Wow, the Euro shows a nice 60kt CCB immediately behind the compact low Thursday. Powerful little system if this pans out. I saw that. Looks like the Euro Ensembles don't dismiss the idea of that system as well, though the mean looks a little more progressive. Something to watch this week, anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 I saw that. Looks like the Euro Ensembles don't dismiss the idea of that system as well, though the mean looks a little more progressive. Something to watch this week, anyways. 11:2 0z EC 120 hours mslp.gif 11:2 0z EC 120 hours 850T.gif Early November clippers that drop snow are pretty rare around here, would be a nice to kick off the snow season (though the recent Halloween snow technically kicked it off as well). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 6z GFS is/was pretty fun...as it goes to town with deepening the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Got down to 24F this morning, by far the coldest morning of the season so far. I guess November is coming in like a lion, forget about March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 With the recent talk about November snows and how they are suddenly decreasing in Detroit while seasonal snowfall is rapidly increasing, & that only 3 years in the last 2 decades had above normal Nov snow, all of which led to a slightly below normal snow season....it would seem a foregone conclusion that for whatever reason, its a no-brainer. if you want a snowy winter here, dont hope for a snowy November. But the longterm results couldnt be more different. I looked up the top 20 snowiest and least snowiest Novembers and their corresponding snow seasons, and the results...well... For the 20 snowiest Novembers, the range was actually not very large, as #1 was only 11.8" but #20 was 6.5". For the top 20 least snowy Novembers, I had to actually to the top 23 (due to tie), as there were 3 Novembers with no snow, 15 Novembers with a T of snow, & 5 Novembers with 0.1" of snow. The top 20 snowiest Novembers had an average seasonal snowfall of.......52.0". The top 23 least snowy Novembers had an average seasonal snowfall of..32.9" So "the weather in November the winter remember" was actually quite a reasonable quote from the 1870s through the 1980s. But for some reason in the last 25 years, that script has for no explained reason, completely flipped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 With the recent talk about November snows and how they are suddenly decreasing in Detroit while seasonal snowfall is rapidly increasing, & that only 3 years in the last 2 decades had above normal Nov snow, all of which led to a slightly below normal snow season....it would seem a foregone conclusion that for whatever reason, its a no-brainer. if you want a snowy winter here, dont hope for a snowy November. But the longterm results couldnt be more different. I looked up the top 20 snowiest and least snowiest Novembers and their corresponding snow seasons, and the results...well... For the 20 snowiest Novembers, the range was actually not very large, as #1 was only 11.8" but #20 was 6.5". For the top 20 least snowy Novembers, I had to actually to the top 23 (due to tie), as there were 3 Novembers with no snow, 15 Novembers with a T of snow, & 5 Novembers with 0.1" of snow. The top 20 snowiest Novembers had an average seasonal snowfall of.......52.0". The top 23 least snowy Novembers had an average seasonal snowfall of..32.9" So "the weather in November the winter remember" was actually quite a reasonable quote from the 1870s through the 1980s. But for some reason in the last 25 years, that script has for no explained reason, completely flipped. I think part of it is, due to the overall warming trend, the window has narrowed in terms of early (and sometimes late) season snowfalls, but the moisture is still there in the winter, so the primary three months of winter are still primed for snows, if not moreso than they used to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 You got it wrong...he keeps it in the oven. But yeah, 21˚ looks to be the low this morning at LAF. Hit that on my "trusty" thermometer as well. Not out of the question that something colder occurred intrahour, but in any case, 21 is very impressive for so early. Looks like the West Lafayette coop got down to 19, a new record for the day. Edit: unless 19 was the low for the previous night. I get confused by that. Went back and looked at WLAF coop records and it got down to 20 on October 11, 1906. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 I think part of it is, due to the overall warming trend, the window has narrowed in terms of early (and sometimes late) season snowfalls, but the moisture is still there in the winter, so the primary three months of winter are still primed for snows, if not moreso than they used to be. I think it has more to do with luck... Winter temps have dropped from the 1990's to the 2000's over most of the country. A degree of global temp rise isn't going to matter that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 6z GFS is/was pretty fun...as it goes to town with deepening the storm. 11:2 6z GFS 126 hours.gif Ensemble support for something too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Ensemble support for something too. 12z run wasn't as fun. But, ducks on the pond... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 12z 13km GFS slightly north of the 00z Euro, but still delivers a compact/strong clipper system that would drop several inches over much of WI. Even areas well south get in on some wind-blown snow shower and flurry action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 I think part of it is, due to the overall warming trend, the window has narrowed in terms of early (and sometimes late) season snowfalls, but the moisture is still there in the winter, so the primary three months of winter are still primed for snows, if not moreso than they used to be. fwiw, there has been no decrease locally in April snows...just November. while we did have a slew of warm Novembers in the 2000s, our overall local climate is not warming. The last two Novembers have been colder than normal with below normal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 2, 2014 Author Share Posted November 2, 2014 Been awhile since I've seen a Clipper in early November that brings snow. That would be interesting if that were to pan out for someone in the region. A chilly 23° here for a low this morning. The cold knocked a lot of the remaining leaves off the trees this morning. DLL ~ I've seen clouds like that on a few occasions. They make for great photos! I think they are more common in the cooler months vs. summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 It looks like a nicely placed high-latitude block over NW Canada will fill central Canada with some pretty cold air this week...an Aleutian low is forecast by the GFS and Euro ensembles to be pretty persistent starting late this week which may try to pump up ridging on the west coast and allow the cold over central Canada to come into the central US. It looks pretty likely the next two weeks will be below normal across most of the region, especially starting late this week. Whether or not it snows, is harder to tell, but some lake effect snow and perhaps a clipper as some models have been suggesting might drop some snow on some in the subforum. The big question that will have to be answered IMO is whether or not ridging can develop near the west coast and stop Pacific air from flooding the country...that may make the difference between just somewhat below normal temps over the next couple of weeks and potentially periods of well below sprinkled in if ridging can develop on the west coast. We'll see...doesn't look torchy any time soon though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 12z run wasn't as fun. But, ducks on the pond... 12z JMA is a nice hit for eastern areas. Weenies gon weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 You're pulling out the JMA on November 2nd? We might have to cancel your Meteorologist status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 You're pulling out the JMA on November 2nd? We might have to cancel your Meteorologist status. Can't cancel something that I'm not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 You're pulling out the JMA on November 2nd? We might have to cancel your Meteorologist status.lol for many reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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