Geos Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 November looks to roar in with a trough. The exact placement is somewhat up for grabs, but it definitely looks like a cold first few days of the new month. 12z EURO. What else might this month bring for the sub forum? ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 27, 2014 Author Share Posted October 27, 2014 0z EURO nudged the trough west a bit. MI and southern ON taking the brunt of the coldest 850's on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 i'll pass on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 i'll pass on that you should really consider relocating south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 you should really consider relocating south. zzzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 i'll pass on that If it isn't going to snow, I agree. I'd rather it be warm for a bit longer if we aren't going to get snow from cold snaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 If it isn't going to snow, I agree. I'd rather it be warm for a bit longer if we aren't going to get snow from cold snaps. Agreed. I'll take the warmth up to December to keep the lakes warm. Make December/January prime LES months and enough cold air for synoptic systems to be primarily snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 From a snow perspective, November has just been one flukey anomaly in Detroit lately. It just doesnt want to snow in November like it used to, but it snows the rest of the winter (particularly February) way more than it used to. The sample size isnt exactly tiny anymore either. The 20th century average for Detroit was approximately 3" of snow in November and 40" on the season...but look at what has happened lately... season.....November...season total 20th century....3.0"......40.0" avg 2013-14..........1.2"......94.9" 2012-13..........0.4"......47.7" 2011-12..........0.6"......26.0" 2010-11.............T........69.1" 2009-10.............0.......43.7" 2008-09..........2.2"......65.7" 2007-08..........0.5"......71.7" 2006-07..........0.1"......30.3" 2005-06..........4.3"......36.3" 2004-05..........0.1"......63.8" 2003-04..........0.4"......24.1" 2002-03..........1.6"......60.9" 2001-02.............0.......33.7" 2000-01..........1.3"......39.0" 1999-00.............T........23.7" 1998-99.............0.......49.5" 1997-98..........4.6"......23.4" 1996-97..........4.1"......38.3" 1995-96..........1.3"......27.6" 1994-95.............T........33.5" 1993-94..........0.6"......45.8" 1992-93..........0.9"......52.2" 1991-92..........2.2"......43.5" 1990-91.............T........31.4" 1989-90..........2.4"......41.8" Note that in the last 25 years, only 3 of the Novembers have had snowfall above the 20th century average, with the other 22 Novembers below that average!!! In contrast, 13 of those 25 winters had snowfall above the 20th century average, but the lone 3 Novembers that were snowier than the 20th century average, all led to winters with total snowfall below that average! If we take it a step further...8 of the last 12 winters have had ABOVE normal snowfall, but 11 of those 12 seasons had BELOW average November snowfall. The 1 year that averaged above normal in November was below average on the season! Going one last step further...6 of the last 7 winters have had above normal snowfall, most WELL above. ALL 7 of those years had November snowfall below the 20th century average. The average season snow for the last 7 years is 59.7", about 150% of the 20th century average....while average November snowfall in those 7 years is just 0.7", or about 30% of the 20th century average. Starting around 1990, November snowfall suddenly seemed to be on the decline, and though it was partially due to several mild Novembers, even the cold Novembers seem to have a hard time getting much snow (look at last Nov...-4.0F but just 1.2" of snow). Then of course in the 2000s, snowfall suddenly, and rapidly, began increasing as whole, yet November snowfall continued to decline even further. What gives? Who knows. Could just be a fluke. But Novembers trending less snowy and Februarys trending much snowier are trends that are not dying in recent years. For fun...look at some of these old-time winters when a disproportionate amount of that seasons snow had fallen by the end of November...and compare to the above list, especially post 2000. season.....November...season total 1891-92...........6.8".......39.6" 1900-01...........6.2".......41.7" 1920-21...........5.4".......36.1" 1921-22...........8.3".......42.7" 1932-33.........10.1".......25.9" 1933-34.........10.5".......42.6" 1940-41...........9.1".......26.8" 1943-44...........3.1".......22.8" (*4.1" of the 22.8" fell by Nov 30) 1947-48...........3.1".......26.6" 1950-51...........9.2".......42.2" 1958-59...........4.5".......37.2" 1971-72...........4.2".......29.0" 1978-79...........6.1".......35.6" 1979-80...........3.2".......26.9" 1980-81...........3.4".......38.4" (*6.3" of the 38.4" fell by Nov 30) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Just looking at those numbers, I would say you don't want greater than an inch of snow in November because there aren't too many years that end up above normal afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Just looking at those numbers, I would say you don't want greater than an inch of snow in November because there aren't too many years that end up above normal afterwards. That would be a trend, for sure. Didnt used to be the case, but for about a quarter century now...it is. And again, id say thats not exactly a small sample size. This is a bit OT, but as said, the November and February quirks of recent years are both equally intriguing. 20th century average Feb snowfall: 9". Recent years Feb snowfall... 2014- 23.4" **9th snowiest Feb** 2013- 23.5" **8th snowiest Feb** 2012- 10.2" 2011- 31.7" **2nd snowiest Feb** 2010- 27.0" **6th snowiest Feb** 2009- 8.5" 2008- 24.2" **7th snowiest Feb** 2007- 14.1" 2006- 3.8" 2005- 12.9" 2004- 0.9" **3rd least snowy Feb** 2003- 19.2" **12th snowiest Feb** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Makes you wonder how many November near misses there have been in Detroit over the years. Here's one that comes to mind. LAF found itself on the wrong side of this one as well as most of the snow fell farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 That would be a trend, for sure. Didnt used to be the case, but for about a quarter century now...it is. And again, id say thats not exactly a small sample size. This is a bit OT, but as said, the November and February quirks of recent years are both equally intriguing. 20th century average Feb snowfall: 9". Recent years Feb snowfall... 2014- 23.4" **9th snowiest Feb** 2013- 23.5" **8th snowiest Feb** 2012- 10.2" 2011- 31.7" **2nd snowiest Feb** 2010- 27.0" **6th snowiest Feb** 2009- 8.5" 2008- 24.2" **7th snowiest Feb** 2007- 14.1" 2006- 3.8" 2005- 12.9" 2004- 0.9" **3rd least snowy Feb** 2003- 19.2" **12th snowiest Feb** All those older years you posted with high snow totals their seasonal snow totals were at or below average. I would consider that a huge sample size going back to the 1800s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Makes you wonder how many November near misses there have been in Detroit over the years. Here's one that comes to mind. LAF found itself on the wrong side of this one as well as most of the snow fell farther north. 20041126_072_total.png First time I ever drove in snow, drove from Mount Pleasant to Detroit and then to Port Huron that evening. 6 hours in the car when it should have only been 3 1/2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Basically a heavy snow in November represents a winter redux or even cancel......Reminds me of the big blizzard a few years back on the east coast around Halloween. It was the only true snow of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 All those older years you posted with high snow totals their seasonal snow totals were at or below average. I would consider that a huge sample size going back to the 1800s. I purposely picked the years with a disporportionate amount of the seasons snow in Nov to make for a really crazy comparison to recent years. There were many years where snowy Novembers made for good snow seasons too...but overall, I definitely agree with you. The weather in November the winter remembers has been a big joke here lol. Heres a better way of looking at it.. Detroit...Avg Nov...Avg Season 1880s......1.9".......45.5" 1890s......3.9".......42.7" 1900s......1.9".......46.3" 1910s......1.6".......39.6" 1920s......3.4".......46.1" 1930s......3.0".......32.9" 1940s......2.6".......27.8" 1950s......4.7".......37.8" 1960s......2.1".......31.8" 1970s......4.5".......45.6" 1980s......2.3".......45.2" 1990s......1.4".......37.9" 2000s......1.1".......45.3" 2010s......0.6".......54.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Makes you wonder how many November near misses there have been in Detroit over the years. Here's one that comes to mind. LAF found itself on the wrong side of this one as well as most of the snow fell farther north. 20041126_072_total.png Thats most definitely the only real near-miss that sticks in my head for November....and then I suppose a runner up would be Nov 30, 2011. Regardless...the Nov decline and Feb rise in snow anomalies that seem to continue to hit Detroit are uncanny in their persistence. And obviously, if there is one month of the snow season that snow is on the decline, no better month than November LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Best October/November temperature combinations for Columbus for winter snow and mean. Sample Size 1878-2013. Winter Mean Correlation and Average Mean (Average is 31.3) Cold October with Cold November: 29.5 Warm October with Cold November: 29.8 Cold October Alone: 30.0 Cold November Alone: 30.2 Cold October with Warm November: 30.5 Normal October with Cold November: 30.6 Normal October with Normal November: 30.6 Normal October Alone: 30.9 Normal November Alone: 31.3 Warm October Alone: 31.9 Warm November Alone: 32.6 Warm October with Normal November: 32.8 Warm October with Warm November: 33.4 Normal October with Warm November: 33.5 Winter Snowfall Correlation and Average (Average is 28.8) Cold October with Warm November: 39.3 Cold October with Cold November: 31.7 Cold October Alone: 30.2 Normal October with Cold November: 29.4 Cold November Alone: 29.1 Warm October with Cold November: 28.2 Normal October Alone: 26.8 Normal October with Normal November: 25.6 Cold October with Normal November: 25.4 Normal November Alone: 23.8 Warm November Alone: 22.9 Warm October Alone: 22.0 Warm October with Normal November: 19.6 Normal October to Warm November: 17.9 Warm October with Warm November: 13.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 Over the last 16 November, the average snowfall has been 1.2". 30 year average is 3.2". I remember quite a few near misses in November, especially after the 20th. More or less I'm routing for average temperatures and I'm hoping the lake continues to stay below normal, so when that first synoptic storm comes along, there won't be mixing/accumulation issues near it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 My garden will be toast Friday night. The models have been trending colder in recent runs and the surface high is currently forecast to be right on top of eastern Iowa at 12z Saturday. Mid 20s should not be difficult to hit. Favored locations could see low 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 20 degrees this morning. Leaves around the area are mostly bare now. Most of the corn is now harvested as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 beautiful day to be outside this afternoon. temp has maxed out here at 34 so far but virtually no wind is making it feel nice. went out in the woods to dump food for the deer and took a few pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 beautiful day to be outside this afternoon. temp has maxed out here at 34 so far but virtually no wind is making it feel nice. went out in the woods to dump food for the deer and took a few pics. DSCF3722.JPG DSCF3723.JPG DSCF3726.JPG Wow, nice pics. Probably won't look like that around here until early to mid December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Wow, nice pics. Probably won't look like that around here until early to mid December. thx! mid and upper 40's coming sunday and Monday so it will likely melt most of it. next snow chances are from Wednesday on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 The CR airport hit 18 this morning, as did Dubuque and Davenport. Waterloo hit 15. Here in the city I probably hit the low 20s. The garden is finished, so now I'm just waiting for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Makes you wonder how many November near misses there have been in Detroit over the years. Here's one that comes to mind. LAF found itself on the wrong side of this one as well as most of the snow fell farther north. 20041126_072_total.png I got 6 inches out of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I still take it with a grain of salt...but...remember the old days when the longterm models showed cold that moderated once it got closer? Well, in what has now been a year-long stretch of cold weather domination in the Lakes/Midwest, the opposite seems to rings true most of the time. The first half of November (save the first few days) had looked so torchy a few days ago, and now for several runs of both GFS/Euro that has NOT been the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 The upcoming semi zonal pattern looks kind of bleh, typical early November weather around here. EDIT: Semi ninja'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Not sure if it's been mentioned anywhere in this sub, but the new 13km GFS (current version is 27km) is going operational Dec 17th. The parallel version of the 13km is already running, and is available on WxBell. Probably available at other model sites as well, but I haven't looked. Should be interesting to see how the new version performs this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Both GFS and ECMWF ensembles have maintained eastern U.S. troughing over the last few runs. Looks like the next 15 days may trend below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 1, 2014 Author Share Posted November 1, 2014 Topped out at 41° today. Some sun, but not a lot. I would say 75% or so of the trees are mostly to completely bare now. Looks like typical early November coming up in the next week. Not too cold or too warm. Lakes Huron and Michigan definitely got churned up and cooled. --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.