TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 again I have to disagree.. the 0z cmc and GFS are big steps closer to the 0z euro idea when you compared to to previous runs... you DID look at previous GFS runs right ? You type in a very odd fashion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 26, 2014 Author Share Posted October 26, 2014 I am a very odd person You type in a very odd fashion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 26, 2014 Author Share Posted October 26, 2014 well it is now obvious that the threat for an BIG Middle Atlantic / east coast Low OCT 31- NOV 1is not going to happen . There appears to be growing support for a significant Low over eastern Great Lakes....and much of NY state & New England for snow to rain OCT 31- NOV 1 The pressure gradient between the cold HIGH over MN/ WI and the Low over Newfoundland gets pretty strong and strong N winds should drops temps below 32 morning of NOV 1-2 from NC to Maine and over KY WVA OH as well. Many areas could get Mid 20s in Middle Atlantic and even colder over New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 You type in a very odd fashionI watched him type at the first conference and I didn't see anything notable about it. I guess we'll never know what the deal is. It adds character. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 This thread has legs again. Complicated and interesting setup unfolding. The MA is back in the game for rain and wind. SNE will likely enjoy this storm for a number of reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 This thread has legs again. Complicated and interesting setup unfolding. The MA is back in the game for rain and wind. SNE will likely enjoy this storm for a number of reasons.certainly interesting, many should know by now to not write things on or off on day +6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 and we are back in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 and now its back And it's gone on the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 12z GFS is showing this; although it is not as strong and moves it out to sea from NC. This very well may have merit. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_102_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=102&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141028+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Ops will probably stay on the roller coaster for another 3 days. How deep the trough digs, how the pieces of energy interact, does h5 closes off and if so where/when, and does the trough go netural then negative are really difficult questions. Euro ens mean last night shows the closed h5 contour over western md/pa. A cluster of lp's from the euro members showed up in MD/VA. Majority were east of course but the low location plot definitely took a turn towards upping the chances for a closer to the coast solution and more impact further south. Euro op from last night speaks for itself. 12z GFS dug all the way to nc/sc and closed off but the tough never went negative so out she goes. Phasing on the gfs was messy and untimely. 12z GGEM was right in between the GFS and Euro ops. But still messy on the phase. The short story is there is still a pretty wide range of possible outcomes. Anything from a non event (other than wind) to pretty decent storm up the coast could easily happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 This is a weird solution. It's odd for a northern stream closed 500mb low moving off the Virginia coast isn't able to bomb faster than the GFS is suggesting. I guess it's just a progressive trough that digs a little too late. 12z Euro is a little reasonable but still takes a lot of precip off shore. I'd expect H5 would be more of a positively tilted open trough if this scenario were to verify. New York and New England look like the best probability for a big hit, judging by the ensembles and last nights Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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