DTWXRISK Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 woof well sort of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 25, 2014 Author Share Posted October 25, 2014 SURFACE MAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Eh...We all know the Euro likes cutting ULLs off too far South and East. It'll probably trend north and west overtime...if we even get a cut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 25, 2014 Author Share Posted October 25, 2014 yes yes I know the 0z OCT 25 op ECMWF is kind of extreme and outlier. BUT given how the euro nailed the new England Long Island NYC Noreaster earlier in the week from 192 hours out .... and given how the euro ens do show some support and the 0z CMC and GFS seem to be moving Towards the Euro... well time to wake up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 25, 2014 Author Share Posted October 25, 2014 Um .. that bias ONLY exists for the sw cutoff lows ..It does not exist for the 500 Low over the eastern US. Also IF the ridge over the Rockies is truly that massive the euro could be right Eh...We all know the Euro likes cutting ULLs off too far South and East. It'll probably trend north and west overtime...if we even get a cut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Um .. that bias ONLY exists for the sw cutoff lows ..It does not exist for the 500 Low over the eastern US. Also IF the ridge over the Rockies is truly that massive the euro could be right Just a few weeks ago we saw the same SE ULL cut off solution when they had the severe outbreak across the South. It trended NW with time. So it's not just with SW U.S. ULL solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 There are some big differences between the Euro and other globals too. The ridge in the west is much less amplified on GFS and CMC solutions. I personally think this thread is a bit premature considering it doesn't have much support from other globals and it's only after one run of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 25, 2014 Author Share Posted October 25, 2014 again I have to disagree.. the 0z cmc and GFS are big steps closer to the 0z euro idea when you compared to to previous runs... you DID look at previous GFS runs right ? There are some big differences between the Euro and other globals too. The ridge in the west is much less amplified on GFS and CMC solutions.I personally think this thread is a bit premature considering it doesn't have much support from other globals and it's only after one run of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 25, 2014 Author Share Posted October 25, 2014 0z CMC 168 HRShttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014102500/gem_z500a_sd_us_29.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 0z CMC 168 HRS http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014102500/gem_z500a_sd_us_29.png There's virtually NO blocking on the Canadian model...it's much more progressive than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 12z GFS closes off the low over maine. I'd say cutoff somewhere between Georgia and main a good bet. I don't see blocking to the northeast of the storm too force it to cut off in any particular spot, this is just as hard if not harder to forecast 7 days in advance than a winter setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Wrote up a discussion re this possibility in the New England subforum, in the October thread. The idea certainly has merit in my mind. Though the analytic technique may be different, the result points to the same conclusion: There is a recent trend that is converging on a negative geopotential anomaly, if perhaps transient in nature, to pass through centered on the OV, MA, NE regions - D6-9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 12z Euro cuts off the ULL further north this go around. Should be interesting how this progresses as we go through the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Euro looks a little whacky to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Euro looks a little whacky to say the least. Extratropical Ana is going to throw a wrench in all the guidance until that energy/5H short wave is accurately modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Euro looks a little whacky to say the least. 168 to 192 the storm moves 300 miles due west. It would top Sandy was far as sharp left turns go. And probably snow mixing in in Richmond. Craziest solution I've seen so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Extratropical Ana is going to throw a wrench in all the guidance until that energy/5H short wave is accurately modeled. Fantastic point! You can actually trace the Ana dynamics back in time and see that it originates with her... This is a two stream phase scenario, where Ana's S/W remnants weaken the resistance and induces the polar stream to dive to where it subsumes in the TV region (or thereabouts...) The two then have a lewd party somewhere between the Apps and EC... That's the gist of the more amp solutions ... but that whole interplay is excessively complex; what exactly comes of it is rather difficult to assess so early in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 168 to 192 the storm moves 300 miles due west. It would top Sandy was far as sharp left turns go. And probably snow mixing in in Richmond. Craziest solution I've seen so far this year. Discussing details at this time frame has about as much worth as running naked backward through an Ebola ward ... but, having said that, I don't think that's really what is going on between those two panels. Obviously others on the board have paid products and can see the runs more discretely, but that actually looks like an abandoned center seaward and a new cyclogenesis closer to the deep layer forcing more centric to better trough mechanics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Discussing details at this time frame has about as much worth as running naked backward through an Ebola ward ... but, having said that, I don't think that's really what is going on between those two panels. Obviously others on the board have paid products and can see the runs more discretely, but that actually looks like an abandoned center seaward and a new cyclogenesis closer to the deep layer forcing more centric to better trough mechanics This is probably a more accurate depiction than what amped thought. 24 hour lapse frames can be misleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Discussing details at this time frame has about as much worth as running naked backward through an Ebola ward ... but, having said that, I don't think that's really what is going on between those two panels. Obviously others on the board have paid products and can see the runs more discretely, but that actually looks like an abandoned center seaward and a new cyclogenesis closer to the deep layer forcing more centric to better trough mechanics Yeah probably 2 different storms. That actually happens a lot with Miller As, the ULL forms a second low when it hits the coast. Plausible, but tough to duplicate solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 25, 2014 Author Share Posted October 25, 2014 Kory it is hard to say where how far south the ULL will drop... in between 24 hr panels.... looking at the pay euro sites its not much different. Euro is locking onto something Significant... big snows for Appalachian poss Shenandoah valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Kory it is hard to say where how far south the ULL will drop... in between 24 hr panels.... looking at the pay euro sites its not much different. Euro is locking onto something Significant... big snows for Appalachian poss Shenandoah valleyStill a week away...WAY too soon to be pinpointing "big snows" for certain areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 12z euro ensembles show little support for the op. Individual members showing a storm are in the minority and those that do are east. Small cluster of 1k+/- mb lows a good bit off the nc/delmarva coast. Still a ways out but I was hoping for a better ensemble run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 12z euro ensembles show little support for the op. Individual members showing a storm are in the minority and those that do are east. Small cluster of 1k+/- mb lows a good bit off the nc/delmarva coast. Still a ways out but I was hoping for a better ensemble run. DT not saying your wrong, but haven't you always said that if the ensembles don't agree with it's op run, it means the op run is usually incorrect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 26, 2014 Author Share Posted October 26, 2014 Yes I have often said that.., at the time I made this post ..saturday morning the 0z euro ensemble were much closer to the 0z operational run of the ECMWF DT not saying your wrong, but haven't you always said that if the ensembles don't agree with it's op run, it means the op run is usually incorrect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 26, 2014 Author Share Posted October 26, 2014 i dont think I was pinpointing ANYTHING Still a week away...WAY too soon to be pinpointing "big snows" for certain areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Still a week away...WAY too soon to be pinpointing "big snows" for certain areas. He was just explaining what the euro showed. sheesh!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 And it's gone on the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Phasing looks like it's occurring late. But there is a Greenland block developing this period. Still think it's worth watching. Especially for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 GFS has showed a clipper with mountain snow for central NY, NE for the past several runs. A similar model hiccup occurred last year in mid November. It produce a better looking imaginary storm. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41628-mid-november-pretend-snowstorm/page-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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