GaWx Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 I saw several asking about whether or not an Oct. purely nontropical nor'easter is any kind of sign for the winter. My intitial answer was that I had no idea since I'd never studied it or read any study about it. So, due to curiosity, I just looked at old sfc wx maps 1968-2004. Besides fully nontropical, I usually looked for lowest SLP to be down to or near 1000 mb before getting to near New England as well as a good pressure gradient/windy going inland a bit into the mid-Atlantic. So, there is some subjectivity regarding which storms to count. This analysis was centered on the area from VA northward. Findings fwiw: Storms during Nino's: 8 storms out of 13 Nino's (a whopping 0.62/year..so better than even chance) - 11/2/69 (counted because I also looked at the first few days of Nov. of each year) - 10/7/72 - 10/14/77 - 10/25/82 - 10/27/87 - 10/17/91 - 10/19/97 - 10/16/02 Storms during non-Nino's: only 5 storms in 24 non-Nino's or only 0.21/year or only ~1/3 the Nino rate) - 10/25/80 - 10/22/88 - 11/1/88 (counted because I also looked at the first few days of Nov. of each year) - 10/26/90 - 10/31/93 (I would have counted 10/22/2014 had I been looking at 2014. I looked at only 1968-2004.) - Only 2 of the 13 were during La Nina, the ones in 1988, vs. the 8 of the 13 during El Nino. Also, 2 of the 3 neutral were neutral positive while the 3rd one was dead neutral. So, this goes along with the idea that +ENSO appears much more favorable than -ENSO for these Oct. nontropical nor'easters. - 10/14+ favored over 10/13 and earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 10/19/1996 Was enhanced by a TC that stayed far away from the storm. 10/25/2005 was enhanced by wilma, but wilma went way OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 23, 2014 Author Share Posted October 23, 2014 10/19/1996 Was enhanced by a TC that stayed far away from the storm. 10/25/2005 was enhanced by wilma, but wilma went way OTS Amped, Thank you. Upon further review, I decided to include 10/19/1996. However, I won't add 10/20/2005 right now because I wasn't doing past 2004 since this link stopped there. Otherwise, I'd also add 10/22/14. Also, I'd want to my own assessment since I'm trying to be consistent. It is entirely possible that I wouldn't include 10/25/2005. http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/data_rescue_daily_weather_maps.html New tally: Storms during Nino's: 8 storms out of 13 Nino's (a whopping 0.62/year..so better than even chance) - 11/2/69 (counted because I also looked at the first few days of Nov. of each year) - 10/7/72 - 10/14/77 - 10/25/82 - 10/27/87 - 10/17/91 - 10/19/97 - 10/16/02 Storms during non-Nino's: only 6 storms in 24 non-Nino's or only 0.25/year or well under half the Nino rate) - 10/25/80 - 10/22/88 - 11/1/88 (counted because I also looked at the first few days of Nov. of each year) - 10/26/90 - 10/31/93 - 10/19/96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 I am relatively new to this weather talk, but always have loved weather, 19yrs of age. However, what does this all mean in terms of this upcoming winter. Was this nor'easter a good/bad sign? Thanks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 23, 2014 Author Share Posted October 23, 2014 I am relatively new to this weather talk, but always have loved weather, 19yrs of age. However, what does this all mean in terms of this upcoming winter. Was this nor'easter a good/bad sign? Thanks man. I can't say. All I can say is that it isn't inconsistent with an oncoming Nino. The main thing that this analysis taught me is how much more favorable this is during warm ENSO vs others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Amped, Thank you. Upon further review, I decided to include 10/19/1996. However, I won't add 10/20/2005 right now because I wasn't doing past 2004 since this link stopped there. Otherwise, I'd also add 10/22/14. Also, I'd want to my own assessment since I'm trying to be consistent. It is entirely possible that I wouldn't include 10/25/2005. http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/data_rescue_daily_weather_maps.html New tally: Storms during Nino's: 8 storms out of 13 Nino's (a whopping 0.62/year..so better than even chance) - 11/2/69 (counted because I also looked at the first few days of Nov. of each year) - 10/7/72 - 10/14/77 - 10/25/82 - 10/27/87 - 10/17/91 - 10/19/97 - 10/16/02 Storms during non-Nino's: only 6 storms in 24 non-Nino's or only 0.25/year or well under half the Nino rate) - 10/25/80 - 10/22/88 - 11/1/88 (counted because I also looked at the first few days of Nov. of each year) - 10/26/90 - 10/31/93 - 10/19/96 I remember the October 25th 1982 storm...I was thinking at the time what if we get another storm like that in February...I was optimistic after that...February 11th 1983 we got a huge storm on the east coast...This year I feel the same and will be disappointed if there isn't a similar storm with snow during the winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 I know it's out of the scope of the years you reviewed, but mid-October 2009 (centered around the 16th or so) saw what I believe was a nor'easter that affected (at least) VA up through New England over the course of a few days. I was at home and in CT for what was a chilly, windy, rainy, and overall fairly awful weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 I would be interested to see these years listed in relation to the PDO state. Good work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.