2014-15 Lakes/Ohio Valley Snowfall Contest

[IWXwx]

Hey Tim, I just noticed, where's your picks?!

[Geos]

Hey Tim, I just noticed, where's your picks?!

 

Yeah really!?

 

Nice tables.

[michsnowfreak]

I agree...nice tables!

[Chicago WX]

I forgot, to be honest.    I'll refigure the group stuff later today.

 

Alpena, MI (APN) 80.0"

Chicago, IL (ORD) 51.5"

Cleveland, OH (CLE) 77.0"

Columbus, OH (CMH) 40.5"

Detroit, MI (DTW) 50.0"

Fort Wayne, IN (FWA) 41.5"

Grand Rapids, MI (GRR) 85.0"

Green Bay, WI (GRB) 55.5"

Indianapolis, IN (IND) 34.0"

La Crosse, WI (LSE) 38.5"

London, ON (YXU) 82.0"

Louisville, KY (SDF) 27.5"

Marquette, MI (MQT) 175.0"

Milwaukee, WI (MKE) 55.5"

Minneapolis, MN (MSP) 52.0"

Moline, IL (MLI) 37.5"

Paducah, KY (PAH) 20.0"

Peoria, IL (PIA) 30.5"

St. Louis, MO (STL) 24.0"

Toronto, ON (YYZ) 46.5"

 

Tiebreakers are going out of region, just for kicks.

 

Tiebreaker #1 • total snowfall in December 2014 for Buffalo, NY (BUF) 28.0"

 

Tiebreaker #2 • total snowfall in January 2015 for Boston, MA (BOS) 23.0"

 

Tiebreaker #3 • total snowfall in February 2015 for Washington DC (DCA) 10.0"

[Gilbertfly]

90.1 for Dec in Buffalo? You might want to check your numbers

 

He may been on to something...lol

[Gilbertfly]

90.1 for Dec in Buffalo? You might want to check your numbers

 

 

He may been on to something...lol

 

 

......I just verified with numerous databases and statisticians....and I have come to the conclusion that it is still November and not December yet....so my above post means absolutely nothing (status quo)

[IWXwx]

I'm in the running.

[Roger Smith]

Actual amount at BUF in December for the tie-breaker was 9.9" (per CF6). So far GRR closing in on 50" most of which fell in November or past week.

[Roger Smith]

The second tiebreaker (BOS snow in January) was 34.3"

 

These are the current seasonal snowfall totals as per climate reports today (excluding Oct).

 

Alpena, MI (APN) 31.6"
Chicago, IL (ORD) 33.0"
Cleveland, OH (CLE) 42.6"
Columbus, OH (CMH) 14.0"
Detroit, MI (DTW) 32.0"
Fort Wayne, IN (FWA) 26.5"
Grand Rapids, MI (GRR) 64.3"
Green Bay, WI (GRB) 20.6"
Indianapolis, IN (IND) 7.1"
La Crosse, WI (LSE) 24.2"
London, ON (YXU) est 50"

Louisville, KY (SDF) 4.8"
Marquette, MI (MQT) 112.7"
Milwaukee, WI (MKE) 28.9"
Minneapolis, MN (MSP) 20.9"
Moline, IL (MLI) 33.5"
Paducah, KY (PAH) 3.5"
Peoria, IL (PIA) 17.6"
St. Louis, MO (STL) 4.5"
Toronto, ON (YYZ) est 25"
 

Very rough estimates for YYZ and YXU that I may update if I can find the right info.

[snowstormcanuck]

The second tiebreaker (BOS snow in January) was 34.3"

 

These are the current seasonal snowfall totals as per climate reports today (excluding Oct).

 

Alpena, MI (APN) 31.6"

Chicago, IL (ORD) 33.0"

Cleveland, OH (CLE) 42.6"

Columbus, OH (CMH) 14.0"

Detroit, MI (DTW) 32.0"

Fort Wayne, IN (FWA) 26.5"

Grand Rapids, MI (GRR) 64.3"

Green Bay, WI (GRB) 20.6"

Indianapolis, IN (IND) 7.1"

La Crosse, WI (LSE) 24.2"

London, ON (YXU) est 50"

Louisville, KY (SDF) 4.8"

Marquette, MI (MQT) 112.7"

Milwaukee, WI (MKE) 28.9"

Minneapolis, MN (MSP) 20.9"

Moline, IL (MLI) 33.5"

Paducah, KY (PAH) 3.5"

Peoria, IL (PIA) 17.6"

St. Louis, MO (STL) 4.5"

Toronto, ON (YYZ) est 25"

 

Very rough estimates for YYZ and YXU that I may update if I can find the right info.

 

YYZ through 1am today is at 23.5" on the year. Will go up by 3-4" once today's snowfall is incorporated.

[Chicago WX]

Last month of the contest underway. Here are the snowfall totals to date, through March 1 (or Feb 28 for ON), for all of the cities/sites. Normal Nov-Mar total snowfall in ( ). Locations in green have already got to or exceeded their normal Nov-Mar total snowfall.

 

Alpena, MI (APN) 42.1" (76.8") 

Chicago, IL (ORD) 43.5"  (35.2")

Cleveland, OH (CLE) 65.7" (64.6")

Columbus, OH (CMH) 31.6" (26.2")

Detroit, MI (DTW) 45.5" (40.9")

Fort Wayne, IN (FWA) 40.1" (32.2")

Grand Rapids, MI (GRR) 75.0" (72.6")

Green Bay, WI (GRB) 28.5" (48.1")

Indianapolis, IN (IND) 25.5" (25.3")

La Crosse, WI (LSE) 28.4" (41.4")

London, ON (YXU) 57.5" (71.4")

Louisville, KY (SDF) 15.7" (12.3")

Marquette, MI (MQT) 150.8" (181.2")

Milwaukee, WI (MKE) 38.0" (44.5")

Minneapolis, MN (MSP) 25.3" (51.4")

Moline, IL (MLI) 39.0" (30.7")

Paducah, KY (PAH) 16.5" (9.0")

Peoria, IL (PIA) 27.0" (24.0")

St. Louis, MO (STL) 16.8" (17.3")

Toronto, ON (YYZ) 35.7" (40.8")

 

Tiebreakers are going out of region, just for kicks.

 

Tiebreaker #1 • total snowfall in December 2014 for Buffalo, NY (BUF) 11.3"

 

Tiebreaker #2 • total snowfall in January 2015 for Boston, MA (BOS) 34.3"

 

Tiebreaker #3 • total snowfall in February 2015 for Washington DC (DCA) 9.8"

[Gilbertfly]

Wisco is killing me here lol...

 

nailed the DC number for Feb though...

 

thanks for the update!

[Chicago WX]

Congrats to Josh on winning the 2014-15 snowfall contest!       

 

Score is the average of departures/errors from actual Nov-Mar total snowfall for all sites. Lowest number wins.

 

1) michsnowfreak: 7.87

2) OHweather: 8.45

3) weatherbo: 8.78

4) Chicago WX: 9.75

CLIMO: 10.00

GROUP MEAN: 10.04

5) andyhb: 10.12

6) Trent: 10.46

7) blizzardof96: 10.54

8) Brewers: 10.72

9) BuffaloWeather: 10.78

10) Stebo: 11.05

11) slow poke: 11.07

12) Roger Smith: 11.21

13) Central Illinois: 11.87

14) Geos: 12.63

15) IWXwx: 13.50

16) KokomoWX: 13.52

17) Gilberfly: 13.56

18) SchaumburgStormer: 14.51

19) Toronto4: 15.34

20) dmc76: 18.96

 

Thanks again to everyone for playing.

 

Numbers for contestants are departure/error from actual snowfall. Green highlighted is for best "score" for each site, red is for worst "score". Click chart below to enlarge.

 

Kudos to both KokomoWX for nailing FWA and weatherbo for YYZ. 

 

[dmc76]

I better not quit my day job

[weatherbo]

Congrats to Josh on winning the 2014-15 snowfall contest!       

 

Score is the average of departures/errors from actual Nov-Mar total snowfall for all sites. Lowest number wins.

 

1) michsnowfreak: 7.87

2) OHweather: 8.45

3) weatherbo: 8.78

4) Chicago WX: 9.75

CLIMO: 10.00

GROUP MEAN: 10.04

5) andyhb: 10.12

6) Trent: 10.46

7) blizzardof96: 10.54

8) Brewers: 10.72

9) BuffaloWeather: 10.78

10) Stebo: 11.05

11) slow poke: 11.07

12) Roger Smith: 11.21

13) Central Illinois: 11.87

14) Geos: 12.63

15) IWXwx: 13.50

16) KokomoWX: 13.52

17) Gilberfly: 13.56

18) SchaumburgStormer: 14.51

19) Toronto4: 15.34

20) dmc76: 18.96

 

Thanks again to everyone for playing.

 

Numbers for contestants are departure/error from actual snowfall. Green highlighted is for best "score" for each site, red is for worst "score". Click chart below to enlarge.

 

Kudos to both KokomoWX for nailing FWA and weatherbo for YYZ. 

 

2014-15 snow contest results FINAL.jpg

interesting, 3 of the biggest snowlovers I can think of offhand on the board places in the top 4.

 

thx for the work Tim!  

[IWXwx]

interesting, 3 of the biggest snowlovers I can think of offhand on the board places in the top 4.

 

thx for the work Tim!  

 

This. They are a lot of fun even though I suck.

 

I also noticed that one our severe wx gurus fisnished 5th (Andy).

[michsnowfreak]

interesting, 3 of the biggest snowlovers I can think of offhand on the board places in the top 4.

 

thx for the work Tim!  

We are the snowlovers, but also the realists

 

Tim, I will take my 1st place prize (500% of annual snowfall) beginning November 1st. You may distribute it anyway you wish over the 5 month period November 1, 2015 - March 31, 2016

[OHweather]

Thanks for doing all of that work! Surprised I did so well after blowing the forecast for my local climate site (CLE). Definitely like this format more than the traditional over/under

[Roger Smith]

Thanks for the contest and congrats to the winners. GRR had a lousy second half.

[Chicago WX]

We are the snowlovers, but also the realists

 

Tim, I will take my 1st place prize (500% of annual snowfall) beginning November 1st. You may distribute it anyway you wish over the 5 month period November 1, 2015 - March 31, 2016

 

50"/50"/50"/50"/50" work for you? I'll see what I can do, though I may need to ask Bo if he has a room to rent. 

 

Thanks for the kind words everyone. See you all next snow season.

[hm8]

 

 

CLIMO: 10.00

GROUP MEAN: 10.04

 

 

 

GLOV Member Ensemble Model couldn't even beat climo

[weatherbo]

Wasn't sure where to post this, so gonna stick it here.

Last Winter's snowfall map from MQT.  My tally  was 225" give or take a few inches.

Just west of me was 250"+.  No site received 300" this past year which is pretty rare.

 

[weatherbo]

for fun

2014-15's snow totals

 

 

[Trent]

Wasn't sure where to post this, so gonna stick it here.

Last Winter's snowfall map from MQT. My tally was 225" give or take a few inches.

Just west of me was 250"+. No site received 300" this past year which is pretty rare.

10552635_1078473882182502_3735651865004998738_n.png

It's fascinating how little snow Marquette (the city) gets in comparison to nearby areas. I'd imagine Buffalo proper beats out Marquette proper quite a bit. Marquette gets so much fame for its snow because of the observing site, but wow the MQT totals aren't even representative of Marquette at all!

[weatherbo]

It's fascinating how little snow Marquette (the city) gets in comparison to nearby areas. I'd imagine Buffalo proper beats out Marquette proper quite a bit. Marquette gets so much fame for its snow because of the observing site, but wow the MQT totals aren't even representative of Marquette at all!

exactly. check out the link.  The city itself just isn't in a favorable spot, plus its elevation is a factor(although a 100" a season is still a respectable amount, imo.).  The city can have a foot of snow on the ground and 5 miles away 3'.  MQT the office, really had no choice but to be where they are or else the radar beam would have trouble.  The rise in elevation is pretty dramatic within just a few miles.  Marquette sits in a bowl essentially.

http://www.weather.gov/mqt/seasonsnowfallmaps

[josh_4184]

for fun

2014-15's snow totals

Annual_snow14-15.png

Sigh don't remind me on last years winter, Winter started November and ended end of November for me. Although the prospect of a el-nino winter does little for LES confidence. 

[snowstormcanuck]

for fun

2014-15's snow totals

Annual_snow14-15.png

 

That downslope area in NE lower is rough.

[michsnowfreak]

The Marquette thing is fascinating, as was mentioned, because Marquettes snowy rep comes from Negaunee's numbers. In Spring, Marquette will have bare ground when the official snow depth in Marquette is still like a foot. Living in northern MI, a snow lover would definitely want to scope out the right areas. Obviously everyone has long winters, but why live so far north and in a non-snowbelt lol. I cannot count the number of times the last decade that the snow has been deeper in Detroit than in NE Lower.

[weatherbo]

The Marquette thing is fascinating, as was mentioned, because Marquettes snowy rep comes from Negaunee's numbers. In Spring, Marquette will have bare ground when the official snow depth in Marquette is still like a foot. Living in northern MI, a snow lover would definitely want to scope out the right areas. Obviously everyone has long winters, but why live so far north and in a non-snowbelt lol. I cannot count the number of times the last decade that the snow has been deeper in Detroit than in NE Lower.

Negaunee is only 12 miles from Marquette and the weather office is only 7 miles from Marquette.  Downtown, sitting right on the water does escape some of the heavier totals but 5 miles from downtown and it's feet deep, so yeah, IMO, Marquette does live up to its snowy reputation. Looking at yearly snow maps, it's just the immediate coast within a couple miles that is spared.  And Marquette is actually really small, basically a college campus and a small downtown.

  My gripe is that Marquette county is so Large, and the majority of people do live near the town, so remote places like  where I live in far northern Marquette county that average 250"+ snow annually vs the100" in the city, get stuck with the Marquette proper forecast.  I can get a foot of snow and not even have an advisory because the city is only going to get 2-4".  Kinda screwy  from a general public perspective but people that live here know all these little things.

[josh_4184]

The Marquette thing is fascinating, as was mentioned, because Marquettes snowy rep comes from Negaunee's numbers. In Spring, Marquette will have bare ground when the official snow depth in Marquette is still like a foot. Living in northern MI, a snow lover would definitely want to scope out the right areas. Obviously everyone has long winters, but why live so far north and in a non-snowbelt lol. I cannot count the number of times the last decade that the snow has been deeper in Detroit than in NE Lower.

If I lived over on the NE side of Norther Lower I would not be able to take it knowing that about 80-100 to my West is getting 100+ more inches of snow a year.