wildweatherman179 Posted November 15, 2014 Author Share Posted November 15, 2014 TSA has done a solid job with forecasting this event again as usual. Looks like today will be a non-event for most of us, but tomorrow continues to look interesting. I have to agree with you. Looks like they've updated their totals again for tomorrow. Good looking accumulations map for November. Couple more chances left for increase or decrease but I like where the euro has had things the whole time with the exception of one or 2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 I know it is the NAM, but I don't like this morning's run. We shall wait and see what the GFS runs show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Tulsa's amounts have upped a bit. PGFS looks similar to last run, maybe a bit more in NW AR and SW MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 12z Euro is pretty similar to last night in our area.... but has noticeably more snow in central and western OK including Tulsa. (Still in the 1-3" range) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Light rain mixed with sleet falling in Bentonville right now. Temp is 33-34 ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Light rain mixed with sleet falling in Bentonville right now. Temp is 33-34 ish. Interesting.. I had just a few sleet pellets here 30 mins ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 I've been enjoying the light snow on the Minnesota/Ohio State game. 12z Euro has some pretty big changes showing up from last nights run as early as 132 hours. As of this run, there's going to be more blocking at the pole and everything in Canada has shifted south, which means Canada doesn't warm and has a source of cold air available. Also by late in the run, the overall 500 MB pattern has almost reversed from the 00z run in Canada.That's quite a huge jump from a model that usually doesn't make such large scale changes from run to run. I guess the story here is that things may be highly variable after Day 4 or 5 or so as the model tries to sort out what's going to happen. We will have to watch the evolution of the trough that looks to develop to our south and southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 15, 2014 Author Share Posted November 15, 2014 I was looking at that and it really doesn't look like a warm pattern. I have just heard a lot of people saying it was going to warm up a lot into December. I don't really see a reason that it would from the patterns I have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Winter weather advisories out for OKC, up to Ponca City so far....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KBPPradmet11 Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Looking through the afternoon AFDs... Winter Weather Advisories are coming for northern Oklahoma, NW Arkansas, and much of southwest Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Yep, there's the one for NE OK and NW AR. 1-2" expected with locally more, primarily north and west of Tulsa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Not liking the trends with the NAM at all.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Not liking the trends with the NAM at all.... It does make me question things for sure.. I dont like it either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 It does make me question things for sure.. I dont like it either. Now, the 18Z parallel GFS is pulling north and putting Tulsa in a hole of low amounts. Wonder why it's doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Now, the 18Z parallel GFS is pulling north and putting Tulsa in a hole of low amounts. Wonder why it's doing that. From the map on Tropical Tidbits it still looks like 1-3". Maybe isolated 4" amounts in SW MO and far NWAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 15, 2014 Author Share Posted November 15, 2014 Same on WxBell. I haven't noticed any differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 The amounts will change from run to run, and there will be mesoscale features/bands that could locally produce more snow and their location won't be determined until it happens. But it still looks good for a general 1-3" over the area. The bigger band of general snowfall may make movements north or south on the models. If you are located on the northern or southern edge of the expected band then the small fluctuations can make the difference between 1" and nothing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Thanks Jomo!! So, we are on our first Snow Watch Party of the 2014-2015 year for our area!! Woohoo!! I'm hoping for everyone to at least get 2-3 inches!! Come on snow-gods, make it happen!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 The amounts will change from run to run, and there will be mesoscale features/bands that could locally produce more snow and their location won't be determined until it happens. But it still looks good for a general 1-3" over the area. The bigger band of general snowfall may make movements north or south on the models. If you are located on the northern or southern edge of the expected band then the small fluctuations can make the difference between 1" and nothing at all. Yea getting close to Nowcasting.. Rader trends and such.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 15, 2014 Author Share Posted November 15, 2014 Thanks Jomo!! So, we are on our first Snow Watch Party of the 2014-2015 year for our area!! Woohoo!! I'm hoping for everyone to at least get 2-3 inches!! Come on snow-gods, make it happen!! Yeah! As someone mentioned last night, I said my snow weenie prayers. If we have been following this storm for as long as we all have ad there's no snow, I may be pretty upset. Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Good luck to everyone! I too hope everyone gets 2-3 inches but hope I personally get the most!!! Ha!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Such good timing this chance of snow came on the weekend now i can go crazy waiting for the first flake..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 15, 2014 Author Share Posted November 15, 2014 How many of us are going to get any sleep tonight? I know I probably won't! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 I was just looking at the water vapor imagery that Srain posted a day or two ago in the Texas thread. Is the storm currently just digging into the 4 corners region? That's what it looks like to me. Often times the satellite/water vapor give us a pretty good idea of where the storm will head. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 This is a linked image. (over the next 10 days) So we want to shift the 3-4 foot amounts south, right? lol... This is off the 18z PGFS, it has a storm system in the Day 8-10 range that goes bonkers. Huge ice/snow storm. Probably not going to happen but pretty crazy to look at though... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Actually the signals are there for a significant Southern Plains storm next weekend and possibly another near Thanksgiving Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 ^^^ And still Tulsa is in a 2 inch donut!! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Actually the signals are there for a significant Southern Plains storm next weekend and possibly another near Thanksgiving Day. Yep, the signal has been there for a storm, but there's probably a better chance of it being rain over a larger area vs a huge ice/snow storm. Shift that sucker south and give me a huge snowstorm and I'd be set. I'm just happy about the snow tomorrow, and that there's actual systems to track this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 15, 2014 Author Share Posted November 15, 2014 If (big IF) the pattern stays colder than most people thought it would just 2 days ago, we may see a winter storm like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 The AO is showing indication of tanking again. While is is still too far out to know what the sensible weather will be, I am leaning toward a very stormy period during the busy Thanksgiving period with possibly some significant societal impacts across a large area from our Region into the Dixie area and on N and E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.