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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2014-15 Discussion


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TSA has done a solid job with forecasting this event again as usual. Looks like today will be a non-event for most of us, but tomorrow continues to look interesting.

I have to agree with you. Looks like they've updated their totals again for tomorrow. Good looking accumulations map for November. Couple more chances left for increase or decrease but I like where the euro has had things the whole time with the exception of one or 2 runs.

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I've been enjoying the light snow on the Minnesota/Ohio State game.

 

12z Euro has some pretty big changes showing up from last nights run as early as 132 hours. As of this run, there's going to be more blocking at the pole and everything in Canada has shifted south, which means Canada doesn't warm and has a source of cold air available. Also by late in the run, the overall 500 MB pattern has almost reversed from the 00z run in Canada.That's quite a huge jump from a model that usually doesn't make such large scale changes from run to run. I guess the story here is that things may be highly variable after Day 4 or 5 or so as the model tries to sort out what's going to happen. We will have to watch the evolution of the trough that looks to develop to our south and southwest.

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The amounts will change from run to run, and there will be mesoscale features/bands that could locally produce more snow and their location won't be determined until it happens. But it still looks good for a general 1-3" over the area. The bigger band of general snowfall may make movements north or south on the models. If you are located on the northern or southern edge of the expected band then the small fluctuations can make the difference between 1" and nothing at all.

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The amounts will change from run to run, and there will be mesoscale features/bands that could locally produce more snow and their location won't be determined until it happens. But it still looks good for a general 1-3" over the area. The bigger band of general snowfall may make movements north or south on the models. If you are located on the northern or southern edge of the expected band then the small fluctuations can make the difference between 1" and nothing at all.

Yea getting close to Nowcasting.. Rader trends and such..

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Thanks Jomo!! So, we are on our first Snow Watch Party of the 2014-2015 year for our area!! Woohoo!! I'm hoping for everyone to at least get 2-3 inches!! Come on snow-gods, make it happen!!

Yeah! As someone mentioned last night, I said my snow weenie prayers. If we have been following this storm for as long as we all have ad there's no snow, I may be pretty upset. Haha.

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This is a linked image. (over the next 10 days) So we want to shift the 3-4 foot amounts south, right? lol... This is off the 18z PGFS, it has a storm system in the Day 8-10 range that goes bonkers. Huge ice/snow storm. Probably not going to happen but pretty crazy to look at though... lol

 

gfsp_asnow_us_41.png

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Actually the signals are there for a significant Southern Plains storm next weekend and possibly another near Thanksgiving Day.

 

Yep, the signal has been there for a storm, but there's probably a better chance of it being rain over a larger area vs a huge ice/snow storm. Shift that sucker south and give me a huge snowstorm and I'd be set. ;)

 

I'm just happy about the snow tomorrow, and that there's actual systems to track this year.

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The AO is showing indication of tanking again. While is is still too far out to know what the sensible weather will be, I am leaning toward a very stormy period during the busy Thanksgiving period with possibly some significant societal impacts across a large area from our Region into the Dixie area and on N and E.

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