JoMo Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Less and less.. cross your fingers for a few flurries... 00z PGFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 14, 2014 Author Share Posted November 14, 2014 So in the longer timeframe after Tuesday/Wednesday, I'm guessing the models are still pretty shaky as to the pattern development in the aftermath of the trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Yeah, the 00z GFS/PGFS showed a more 'relaxed' type of pattern with a few systems. It didn't look as warm as previous runs so it might be kind of seasonable. In the really long range, the PGFS decided to drop the Arctic on us again towards Thanksgiving. 00z Euro continues the trend of the other models with even less precip showing up now. Looks like a flurry event (or maybe not even that) for most of us now. Might see an inch or so if you live in central KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Looks like the 12z PGFS is back in business for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 14, 2014 Author Share Posted November 14, 2014 Yeah. It and the old GFS looking better at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Yeah. It and the old GFS looking better at 12z. I took a look and indeed looks a bit better this morning. I still think most of us will at least see snow in the sky. I wonder if this is a blip or a new trend.. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 GGEM way south this morning from just glancing at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 12z Euro came in drier for Sat and wetter for Sunday. Has the 4-state area in a stripe of snow. The northern 1/2 of OK, the 4 far NW counties in NW AR, all of SW MO and SE Kansas from Pittsburg, KS south are all in the 2" range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 14, 2014 Author Share Posted November 14, 2014 12z Euro came in drier for Sat and wetter for Sunday. Has the 4-state area in a stripe of snow. The northern 1/2 of OK, the 4 far NW counties in NW AR, all of SW MO and SE Kansas from Pittsburg, KS south are all in the 2" range... Yeah, looks a little better. Looked at the latest NAM run a few minutes ago. It pretty much reflects the euro at this time. First wave light and mostly in KS, then second wave Sunday a little heavier and further south. I know it's just the NAM but it was worth looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 14, 2014 Author Share Posted November 14, 2014 Just quick glancing at precip on the quick stamps from the 12z ECMWF, it looks like most of the precip Sunday falls below freezing, and there could still be some 2 inch+ amounts in east central Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas. It wouldn't surprise me to see more than 2 inches for a 50 by 300 mile stripe along and north of I -40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 12z Euro came in drier for Sat and wetter for Sunday. Has the 4-state area in a stripe of snow. The northern 1/2 of OK, the 4 far NW counties in NW AR, all of SW MO and SE Kansas from Pittsburg, KS south are all in the 2" range... Thats a big change from 00z.. Lets make it a new trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Just quick glancing at precip on the quick stamps from the 12z ECMWF, it looks like most of the precip Sunday falls below freezing, and there could still be some 2 inch+ amounts in east central Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas. It wouldn't surprise me to see more than 2 inches for a 50 by 300 mile stripe along and north of I -40. How cold is the euro during this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 14, 2014 Author Share Posted November 14, 2014 How cold is the euro during this time? Couldn't really tell. Just has the 35 and 32 degree lines with the precip north of the 32 line. I'll check again later when I have time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 How cold is the euro during this time? Low 30's, cooling to upper 20's by 00z 850's look fine as well (until you get about 1/2 the way down the AR/OK border) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Thanks guys. Well I guess time to see if it holds for more than one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Is the storm being sampled yet or is it still offshore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Is the storm being sampled yet or is it still offshore? It's over BC/Washington state as of the 12z initialization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 12z Euro ensembles look Seasonably cool for Thanksgiving. The period after next Thurs looks interesting, especially as we get into next weekend. We should have a trough building over us. The models don't really know what to do with the energy yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 14, 2014 Author Share Posted November 14, 2014 Hey JoMo, I'll probably look stupid for this, but where are you finding the ensemble maps on WxBell? All I can find are the ensembles+deterministic graphs, which have narrowed the spread down and increased back to 2 inches over the stripe I mentioned earlier. Let's see them increase again at midnight hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Hey JoMo, I'll probably look stupid for this, but where are you finding the ensemble maps on WxBell? All I can find are the ensembles+deterministic graphs, which have narrowed the spread down and increased back to 2 inches over the stripe I mentioned earlier. Let's see them increase again at midnight hopefully. The "ECMWF EPS (Ensemble 0.25)" link is the Euro ensemble mean and control. The Euro ensembles are typically out by 2:30 or 2:45. Keep in mind that the surface temp maps and control accumulated snowfall are located up at the top under "USA Precip + 2-m Temperature (Anomalies). The "ECMWF EPS 50-Member Stamps" shows each individual ensemble member (pressure, precip, and snow). For the surface temps/anomalies, as well as a comparison to the previous run. (which is good for seeing if it's warmer/colder or what's changed on the precip maps.... (also on the bottom of this page are the surface temps for the ensemble mean/control as well as the accumulated snowfall on the control) You will want the ECMWF link listed up at the top after "USA Precip + 2-m Temperature (Anomalies) : " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 18z PGFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 That is almost identical to the 12z PGFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 18z PGFS... Well snow is in the area if you take that for face.. at least it didnt change much from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 14, 2014 Author Share Posted November 14, 2014 Thank you JoMo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Doug Heady going with 2+" from Joplin south.... on Sunday. 1-2" in SE KS and around the Bartlesville area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 I'm going to optimistically predict 3.1 inches/snow for Tulsa. I'm liking the trend toward a bit more energy for the Sunday event. Should be a couple of decent bands. Remember to recite the Snow Weenie's prayer religiously over the next couple of days, friends. Anything over an inch ain't bad for the middle of November in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 00z PGFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 15, 2014 Author Share Posted November 15, 2014 It's getting a little bigger. Very slightly but still bigger than earlier. I think there's even a 3 inch stripe in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 The 00z Euro has less precip, and is farther north into SW MO and SE KS. There's some 2" amounts showing up in Benton county (far NW AR county) and across the far NE corner of OK, but overall, less precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 TSA has done a solid job with forecasting this event again as usual. Looks like today will be a non-event for most of us, but tomorrow continues to look interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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