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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2014-15 Discussion


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Just barely notice this...but I had a Interesting little half hour...Had some very very light ice crystals falling out this cold air mass earlier I tried to get a pic but it was to small and to light to see on camera. Still it was cool to see.

Looks like some returns along the Red River right now.

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12z Euro continues it's move north with the Saturday system. The system on Sunday came in a bit wetter. Looks like a nice band near the AR/MO state line, with snow extending back from central OK to the NE across NE OK and far NW AR and southern MO.

 

South of a Pittsburg, KS and north of a Ft. Smith AR line is the 2" line with the heaviest across Benton county in Arkansas.

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JoMo,

What's the definition of "heavier" bands along the state line? Apparently more than 2 inches.

 

There's an evident heavier band of precip, but knowing where it's going to be is going to be a mesoscale situation on seeing where it sets up and it'll probably move around on the models until it happens. On the 12z Euro, the heavier band is probably 3-5" on the 'snow' map. 

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There's an evident heavier band of precip, but knowing where it's going to be is going to be a mesoscale situation on seeing where it sets up and it'll probably move around on the models until it happens. On the 12z Euro, the heavier band is probably 3-5" on the 'snow' map.

I think it's time for me to just look at Sunday. First system goes way north as it looks now. Though until it hits land and sampled there remains questions. I wonder how well models end up doing with it.

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I think it's time for me to just look at Sunday. First system goes way north as it looks now. Though until it hits land and sampled there remains questions. I wonder how well models end up doing with it.

Same for me, I suppose I'll just enjoy my dusting of 'mood snow' and wait til December gets here. Lol

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12z Ensembles don't look too bad into the Day 11-15 time range. Looks like a warm up to normal or above normal for a few days and then a cool down to normal or below normal as there looks to be a southern storm system. Thanksgiving looks cooler than normal at this point but there really isn't any signal for an Arctic outbreak or huge warm-up in that period of time.

 

It definitely looks better than yesterdays Ensembles. 

 

Interested to see what the Weeklies show here in a few hours. 

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Here's the 18z PGFS. It has the Sunday band of snow across far NE OK into SW MO. Take that band, increase it a bit and push it farther south over NW AR and you basically have what the 12z Euro showed.

 

18zpgfs13.png

Interesting to see what changes tonight at 0z and Tmrw should really tell a lot more. Should get a better handle on things.. maybe

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Springfield's afternoon discussion says an inch or 2 north of the Arkansas border on Saturday. They don't mention the Sunday system at all.

Tulsa says primarily rain on Saturday due to thermal profiles and not enough evap cooling. They have better snow chances on Sunday.

Little Rock says Saturday storm is primarily in MO and Sunday storm primarily in southern Arkansas.

HUH???

So, basically no one agrees on much of anything.

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Weeklies.... Not counting what's going to happen during the next 10-15 days...

 

The weeklies go through Dec 14th and they have a distinct look of a ridge in the east (over or east of the Hudson Bay) and troughing in the west and southwest and south central US. There are also signs that blocking returns over the pole during the first week of December. There's lots happening on the control run. It doesn't seem like a stable pattern. Didn't really gain much insight, not that they've been all that accurate.

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Weeklies.... Not counting what's going to happen during the next 10-15 days...

The weeklies go through Dec 14th and they have a distinct look of a ridge in the east (over or east of the Hudson Bay) and troughing in the west and southwest and south central US. There are also signs that blocking returns over the pole during the first week of December. There's lots happening on the control run. It doesn't seem like a stable pattern. Didn't really gain much insight, not that they've been all that accurate.

Maybe we can get a STJ and a storm involved when the troughing shifts to to the west. With blocking over the pole, cold air should be close by as well.

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