The Waterboy Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Magnitude 4.8 earthquake hit at 3:40 pm in Conway Springs, KS. About 35 miles SSW of Wichita. Did anyone feel it? Reports say it was felt all the way to Little Rock. I didn't feel anything here in Rogers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I did not feel anything here either. The last one I felt was the one down by Tulsa and it was a 5.2 or something a couple years ago. That was weird. Here's the 18z PGFS run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 12, 2014 Author Share Posted November 12, 2014 Nice little 2.5-3 inch band of snow there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I felt that earthquake here in Downtown Tulsa!! Crazy! I thought I was having a migraine with everything on my desk shaking, LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 12, 2014 Author Share Posted November 12, 2014 I didn't feel anything but I move around a lot throughout the day. If NWS Tulsa has their temperatures right, many won't see the freezing mark again until Friday afternoon. Been a long time since I've seen 24+ hours below freezing in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Just barely notice this...but I had a Interesting little half hour...Had some very very light ice crystals falling out this cold air mass earlier I tried to get a pic but it was to small and to light to see on camera. Still it was cool to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Just barely notice this...but I had a Interesting little half hour...Had some very very light ice crystals falling out this cold air mass earlier I tried to get a pic but it was to small and to light to see on camera. Still it was cool to see. Looks like some returns along the Red River right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Looks like some returns along the Red River right now. Ahhh ok yea there is a few down that way. Maybe you will see a few flakes if your are down that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 00z PGFS weekend system snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 00z PGFS weekend system snow Nice to see it hasnt gave up yet. Looking more likely flakes could be in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I will not complain about 2" in November!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I will not complain about 2" in November!! Indeed! even any accum for this time of year would be uncommon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Another small bump north on the 00z Euro. Pretty similar to last run, but just a bit farther north with all the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 12z Euro continues it's move north with the Saturday system. The system on Sunday came in a bit wetter. Looks like a nice band near the AR/MO state line, with snow extending back from central OK to the NE across NE OK and far NW AR and southern MO. South of a Pittsburg, KS and north of a Ft. Smith AR line is the 2" line with the heaviest across Benton county in Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 JoMo, What's the definition of "heavier" bands along the state line? Apparently more than 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 JoMo, What's the definition of "heavier" bands along the state line? Apparently more than 2 inches. There's an evident heavier band of precip, but knowing where it's going to be is going to be a mesoscale situation on seeing where it sets up and it'll probably move around on the models until it happens. On the 12z Euro, the heavier band is probably 3-5" on the 'snow' map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 There's an evident heavier band of precip, but knowing where it's going to be is going to be a mesoscale situation on seeing where it sets up and it'll probably move around on the models until it happens. On the 12z Euro, the heavier band is probably 3-5" on the 'snow' map. I think it's time for me to just look at Sunday. First system goes way north as it looks now. Though until it hits land and sampled there remains questions. I wonder how well models end up doing with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 I think it's time for me to just look at Sunday. First system goes way north as it looks now. Though until it hits land and sampled there remains questions. I wonder how well models end up doing with it. Same for me, I suppose I'll just enjoy my dusting of 'mood snow' and wait til December gets here. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Tulsa's forecast totals: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 Tulsa's forecast totals: Well, it's an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 12z Ensembles don't look too bad into the Day 11-15 time range. Looks like a warm up to normal or above normal for a few days and then a cool down to normal or below normal as there looks to be a southern storm system. Thanksgiving looks cooler than normal at this point but there really isn't any signal for an Arctic outbreak or huge warm-up in that period of time. It definitely looks better than yesterdays Ensembles. Interested to see what the Weeklies show here in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 New Tulsa graphic: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 New Tulsa graphic: ,Well I think that's not to bad of an estimate at this point. But I'm thinking maybe a little more into SW Mo could be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Here's the 18z PGFS. It has the Sunday band of snow across far NE OK into SW MO. Take that band, increase it a bit and push it farther south over NW AR and you basically have what the 12z Euro showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 Woohoo! I'll take it! I've been too busy to check anything today so thanks JoMo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Here's the 18z PGFS. It has the Sunday band of snow across far NE OK into SW MO. Take that band, increase it a bit and push it farther south over NW AR and you basically have what the 12z Euro showed. Interesting to see what changes tonight at 0z and Tmrw should really tell a lot more. Should get a better handle on things.. maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Springfield's afternoon discussion says an inch or 2 north of the Arkansas border on Saturday. They don't mention the Sunday system at all. Tulsa says primarily rain on Saturday due to thermal profiles and not enough evap cooling. They have better snow chances on Sunday. Little Rock says Saturday storm is primarily in MO and Sunday storm primarily in southern Arkansas. HUH??? So, basically no one agrees on much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Weeklies.... Not counting what's going to happen during the next 10-15 days... The weeklies go through Dec 14th and they have a distinct look of a ridge in the east (over or east of the Hudson Bay) and troughing in the west and southwest and south central US. There are also signs that blocking returns over the pole during the first week of December. There's lots happening on the control run. It doesn't seem like a stable pattern. Didn't really gain much insight, not that they've been all that accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 Weeklies.... Not counting what's going to happen during the next 10-15 days... The weeklies go through Dec 14th and they have a distinct look of a ridge in the east (over or east of the Hudson Bay) and troughing in the west and southwest and south central US. There are also signs that blocking returns over the pole during the first week of December. There's lots happening on the control run. It doesn't seem like a stable pattern. Didn't really gain much insight, not that they've been all that accurate. Maybe we can get a STJ and a storm involved when the troughing shifts to to the west. With blocking over the pole, cold air should be close by as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Seems like EURO has handled this system best of all. What I am most interested in is if the PGFS outperforms the GFS with snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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