OKwx2K4 Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 What an absolutely fantastic day for mid August! Best. August. Day. Ever! Let's hope Doug Heady's pattern has this storm coming back around in late December. I about skyrocketed out of bed this morning with a thunder boom that sounded like a dynamite blast right outside my bedroom window! It is good to hope for signs of any pattern starting up besides the various placement of the 40 day death ridge. Definitely an awesome August day for sure. If there is merit to the pattern you mention, it would have to repeat itself in October as well if I'm not mistaken. It is possible because after the next typhoon induced cold front I think we go back to a July look (only cooler) for September. We shall see. I look forward to having to wear sleeves tomorrow morning at work though. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokey_mountain_vols Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 It was a very cool day today here in Tulsa. Was pretty shocked. starting to feel like fall!!!! Sent from my HTC6525LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 What an absolutely fantastic day for mid August! Best. August. Day. Ever! Let's hope Doug Heady's pattern has this storm coming back around in late December. I about skyrocketed out of bed this morning with a thunder boom that sounded like a dynamite blast right outside my bedroom window! I had the thunder thing happen at about 5 AM. Loudest thunder I have heard in a long time, shook the whole house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 IRI Plume for El Nino has updated for August: Peaks at around 2.3 average for all models. The same peak as 1997-1998. The dynamic models actually peak higher at 2.5, while the statistical models peak at 1.9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 IRI Plume for El Nino has updated for August: Peaks at around 2.3 average for all models. The same peak as 1997-1998. The dynamic models actually peak higher at 2.5, while the statistical models peak at 1.9. Awesome stuff. So my guess is to take the under vs 97-98? I don't honestly think we'll make it that high but who knows. That is still a pretty huge spread to the eye at least. Anyone have any new thoughts or ideas for the upcoming winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Early cool season preview? The low of 50F at Will Rogers World Airport in Oklahoma City OKC appears to be the lowest temperature there in August since 1915. The only other dates with 50F or lower minimum temperatures in August at OKC are: 8/23/1891: 49F 8/24/1891: 50F 8/29/1893: 50F 8/30/1915: 49F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 I went for a run around the OU campus this morning, and it felt great out. Beautiful morning, and coming from Ohio it didn't seem too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Had a garden-variety thunderstorm move through here just after 6 a.m. from the WAA regime. Some moderate rainfall and occasional lightning. Expecting some sort of complex to move in from the west late this evening...we'll see if it makes it here before dying out, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 72, cloudy and dry at lunchtime in August. You can't beat that with a stick folks! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 I was going to post the 30 day CFSv2 map to show if there was any change from the ones I posted back in July, but I compared them and there is very little change at all. The Aleutian low is maybe a hair farther NE on the Dec map but the other maps are nearly the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 It appears the main action should pass well to the north tonight. Tomorrow should be hot & dry, with rain potentially moving in from the north overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Had a well-defined OFB blow through here at around 10 a.m. which knocked temps down by almost 10 degrees, but it's still only a matter of time before it gets into the 90s today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Just a couple of boundaries on radar this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Weatherbell has an updated winter forecast. Mentioned Dec might be warm, with Feb probably being the coldest month. Around here temp wise... -1 to -3 in Southern Missouri. From the AR/OK border south including all of AR and OK -3 to -5. Snowfall looks to be around normal around most of our area, with areas from probably just south of Tulsa to Fayetteville and points south at 150% of normal, or above normal. Analogs, 1957-58, 2014-15, 1997-98, 2002-03, 1972-73. With some other years factored in as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 JoMo what time frame are the temps? Is that the winter as an average or just one month? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 JoMo what time frame are the temps? Is that the winter as an average or just one month? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A From: Dec-Feb Expect a 'back loaded' winter, but if December is colder than expected, than the temps will need to be adjusted colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Cool tks man. Pretty cold forecast. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Great analogs in there too. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Yeah, it's more of a Euro/SST CA modeled winter, or that's the primary guidance, believing that the CFS v2 is too far east with the Aleutian low and too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Yeah, it's more of a Euro/SST CA modeled winter, or that's the primary guidance, believing that the CFS v2 is too far east with the Aleutian low and too warm. This is excellent news. Thank you again for the update! There are some winners in that list and some losers also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Ready to start meteorological fall folks! Got my WxBell subscription started up today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Moved to new thread with new SST CA forecast! http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46801-okarksmo-winter-2015-16-discussion/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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