JoMo Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 It's really impressive to see the warm pool in the NPAC still hanging tough. It will be cool to see if it does since most models decimate the resilient ridge out there. I'm going to watch it very closely this winter to see if it's a cause or an effect of the ocean temps up there. I don't think in the couple of years it has been there that I have ever heard definitively whether it's a cause, effect or both with feedback mixed in there somewhere. Thoughts? The warmer N. Pac has probably been because of the high pressure/La Nina most likely and it can be broken down by a strong persistent trough in the area. If storminess forms in Oct/Nov and hangs out in the GOA, then the warm water will probably be gone. Looking at the CFS over the last 30 days or so have featured a warming trend in the N. Pac. (the warmer water is farther south and west when compared to previous runs) which probably indicates the Aleutian low being farther south and west as time has went on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 The warmer N. Pac has probably been because of the high pressure/La Nina most likely and it can be broken down by a strong persistent trough in the area. If storminess forms in Oct/Nov and hangs out in the GOA, then the warm water will probably be gone. Looking at the CFS over the last 30 days or so have featured a warming trend in the N. Pac. (the warmer water is farther south and west when compared to previous runs) which probably indicates the Aleutian low being farther south and west as time has went on. I see what you are saying I think. The warm pool was more of a leftover or persistence feature of La Niña/PDO cycle and since we've never switched to Niño over the years, it has persisted along with the resilient ridge out west. Further south and west (mmore west than south) would be a pretty ideal location for the low to sit all winter. If it happens, I would like our chances a lot more. I suppose if someone wanted to we could start a 2015-16 thread. I don't usually think much of winter at this point in the year but it has been a really boring summer except for the flooding early on, TS Bill and a couple of tornadoes in my area. I'm over it and ready for fall I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 Pretty much, I was looking for a graphic to represent what I thought may possibly happen this winter, and I found this link. The last graphic ("Early Thoughts") is similar to what I was thinking. http://epawaweather.com/2015/07/22/why-el-nino-might-not-be-as-super-for-winter-2015-2016/ You get the Aleutian low far enough west, and that brings the ridging farther west and we get a trough into the eastern and central US that brings down the cold. Combine that with the active STJ and we end up doing well around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 That link does a much better job explaining it than I ever could but I'm thinking what it said as well. I just didn't sound as intelligent doing so. Good post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Latest constructed analog is out, these images will change: Shows a fairly basin wide event fading to a more central-western based event over the winter. Fairly large Aleutian low area, with the STJ cutting across the south and southeast: This leads to below normal temps in the south and east. With above normal precip: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Based on the maps alone, I'd give myself equal chances of above, below and normal in both the temps and precip categories. If the Arctic air is cut off throughout the majority of the winter, it won't be too exciting. Hopefully it can still deliver an impressive cold shot or two like 2009-10 did and a slow crawling snowstorm or 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Based on the maps alone, I'd give myself equal chances of above, below and normal in both the temps and precip categories. If the Arctic air is cut off throughout the majority of the winter, it won't be too exciting. Hopefully it can still deliver an impressive cold shot or two like 2009-10 did and a slow crawling snowstorm or 3. I was looking at 2009-2010 yesterday after seeing the SST analog map. That ended up being a decent winter, mainly because the AO was deeply negative which delivered cold air shots to go along with the active STJ. The Christmas Eve blizzard was pretty big for OK and KS, and far W MO, but the rest of the area found themselves right on top of the track of low pressure. You can see the system over TX and the upstream system over MT. They phased, but it was too far west and only OK/KS really saw the heavier snow. You can also see the Aleutian low which led to the downstream ridge in BC. The Jan 28th-29th storm was a nice area wide system that dropped around 5-8" of snow across the area. This one was a SW low moving out and slowly falling apart after a northern stream system delivered a cold front. The biggest system for our area was the March 20-21st storm. This was a 'bowling ball' type storm. Fayetteville saw nearly 14" of snow during this storm with 2"/hr rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Yeah. I checked it back after I posted that to make sure I was remembering the right winter. The setup from your maps almost matches perfectly so I suppose I was spot on. I'll never forget the January storm. Hardest snow I've ever driven through that night followed by being the coldest I've ever been at work the following night. State temperature record fell that day also. The March storm (I may be wrong on which one. It was one of the 2 storms. Jan or Mar) dropped amounts as high as 27" to my northwest about 50 miles. Probably the biggest snow/liquid ratio storm I've ever witnessed. I personally got over 18". Those 2 storms were really just perfect circumstances coming together here. May not happen again but the maps capture the pattern perfectly and lay over the models well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 It's fun to reminisce the past events sometimes..... Tulsa keeps a list of sig weather events here: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/?n=sigwxevents Springfield has one here: http://www.weather.gov/sgf/event_reviews OKC: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=events Little Rock?: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk/?n=bigevents.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Yah those are fun to look at. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 It's fun to reminisce the past events sometimes..... Tulsa keeps a list of sig weather events here: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/?n=sigwxevents Springfield has one here: http://www.weather.gov/sgf/event_reviews OKC: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=events Little Rock?: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk/?n=bigevents.htm Yes. It definitely is. The winters of 2008-09, (huge ice and sleet storm) and 2009-10, (above mentioned events) pretty much made me a huge snow addict and winter weather nerd for good. :-) If I recall correctly, 2002-03 had some slow-crawling monsters also. I think I picked up an 8-9" snowstorm that year too. Hard to forget when you make your seasonal average in 36 hours. Thanks for the links. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Yes. It definitely is. The winters of 2008-09, (huge ice and sleet storm) and 2009-10, (above mentioned events) pretty much made me a huge snow addict and winter weather nerd for good. :-) If I recall correctly, 2002-03 had some slow-crawling monsters also. I think I picked up an 8-9" snowstorm that year too. Hard to forget when you make your seasonal average in 36 hours. Thanks for the links. I'm not sure how good 2002-2003 was down that way, but it was my fav winter of the 2000's. An 8-12" snowstorm on Christmas Eve. An inch or so on Jan 2nd, Couple inches on Jan 15-16th. Some more light snow on Feb 5-6, Couple inches on Feb 9th, and 10-12" on Feb 23rd. 2002-2003 was a moderate El Nino, with the warmest waters farther west relative to average. The CPC July numbers are in and 2015 had the warmest El Nino region 4 (0.83) since 1950, with 2002 coming in second (0.77) and 1997 (0.61). Be interesting to see what happens since most of the models are moving east to west with the warmest water as winter wears on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 I'm not sure how good 2002-2003 was down that way, but it was my fav winter of the 2000's. An 8-12" snowstorm on Christmas Eve. An inch or so on Jan 2nd, Couple inches on Jan 15-16th. Some more light snow on Feb 5-6, Couple inches on Feb 9th, and 10-12" on Feb 23rd. 2002-2003 was a moderate El Nino, with the warmest waters farther west relative to average. The CPC July numbers are in and 2015 had the warmest El Nino region 4 (0.83) since 1950, with 2002 coming in second (0.77) and 1997 (0.61). Be interesting to see what happens since most of the models are moving east to west with the warmest water as winter wears on. I use Fayetteville and Tulsa both for records. 2002-03 at Fayetteville listed at 15.9 total with 5.0 in the December storm and the February storm had 9.9. An inch fell in January and I believe there was a small ice storm in there too somewhere. Tulsa fared a bit better with 20.4 on that season total from the same events. There was something for everyone that year. That February storm spun in place over the area forever it seemed like before it ejected off and plowed the coast a few days later. (President's day?) That's what made it so memorable to me. It wasn't too cold that year but it sure was fun. I'd take another year like that in a minute or a 72-73. Not that I was alive then but it was a big year. My parents still talk about it and the late 70s winters of course. Hopefully the Niño can keep evolving west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted August 7, 2015 Share Posted August 7, 2015 Fascinating article. Sorry if this has already been posted elsewhere. I like the sound of this but more important the historical data to support it. http://www.wsi.com/blog/traders-things-that-make-you-go-hmmmm-regarding-the-upcoming-winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted August 7, 2015 Share Posted August 7, 2015 Fascinating article. Sorry if this has already been posted elsewhere. I like the sound of this but more important the historical data to support it. http://www.wsi.com/blog/traders-things-that-make-you-go-hmmmm-regarding-the-upcoming-winter Yeah. Saw the analysis of this article the other day in another subforum. It goes well with some of the years I've been analyzing also. I had no idea about this correlation at all though until I read the commentary on it. I just knew that something made 2009-10 very special for a mod-strong el nino. Now it makes a lot more sense. I very much like that not one of those years has us in a warmer than normal average. Bring it on is all I can say. If there's cold, surely snow will follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 JB in the Saturday summary is saying that the euro looks like some of the better winters we have ever seen here. Good to have the euro on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 JB in the Saturday summary is saying that the euro looks like some of the better winters we have ever seen here. Good to have the euro on our side. Yeah, the Euro seasonal looked pretty good from what I heard and it sounds like it looked a lot like the constructed SST analog forecast that was posted last page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 So when is the general thought on when we break this heat? Forecasts were all for a cooler than normal August here. They were pretty much way off it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Any insight on what the state of the QBO does in regards to winter weather? Looks to be headed to positive in the middle of winter which is total opposite of 2009-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 1972-73, 2009-10, and 1976-77 are all still on the table as far as "ENSO only" type analogs are concerned. This is based completely on the strength and evolution of enso region 1+2. The Niño very obviously is headed to basin wide or west central based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Any insight on what the state of the QBO does in regards to winter weather? Looks to be headed to positive in the middle of winter which is total opposite of 2009-10. Negative QBO is generally seen as better for blocking patterns. But DT did some work and finds that -8 to +8 or what he calls 'neutral' is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Negative QBO is generally seen as better for blocking patterns. But DT did some work and finds that -8 to +8 or what he calls 'neutral' is good. Thank you. I've just been thinking out loud, so to speak. Hope it doesn't bother anyone. Slow day at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 JAMSTEC has updated: http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html Based on SST's, it looks like the Aleutian low is just a tad farther NW than the July update: Temps coming in colder across the southern half of the US or so: Drier this run though: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 That's beautiful! Getting better and better every time we see it. Pretty much matches what I would expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Sat outside for awhile in the middle of the night last night and watched the meteors. Low dew points, cool air and a northeast breeze made it feel like fall for a change. It was an incredibly beautiful night. I can't wait til the next 2-3 weeks goes by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 El Nino region 1+2 is starting to cool. That's good news as we don't want an east-based event. The August UKMET continues the thinking as all the other models with the warmest waters not east-based and this is just NDJ, the other models shift west with time as we go farther into winter. 500 MB map shows the Aleutian low in a pretty good spot, with a jet across the southern US. This results in temps below normal in the south US. And above normal precip: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Nice. Tks for the update. I'm getting my thermometer honed in lol. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Cool. Thank you again for the info. Many places have a decent shot at tying or breaking a record low mean temp tomorrow. That near 50 degree low is going to feel so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 More and more confident now that we shatter the record low mean for the date tomorrow or today. NAM probably is a little cold biased but has a nice 48 degree reading sitting on my location in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 What an absolutely fantastic day for mid August! Best. August. Day. Ever! Let's hope Doug Heady's pattern has this storm coming back around in late December. I about skyrocketed out of bed this morning with a thunder boom that sounded like a dynamite blast right outside my bedroom window! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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