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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2014-15 Discussion


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It's really impressive to see the warm pool in the NPAC still hanging tough. It will be cool to see if it does since most models decimate the resilient ridge out there. I'm going to watch it very closely this winter to see if it's a cause or an effect of the ocean temps up there. I don't think in the couple of years it has been there that I have ever heard definitively whether it's a cause, effect or both with feedback mixed in there somewhere. Thoughts?

 

The warmer N. Pac has probably been because of the high pressure/La Nina most likely and it can be broken down by a strong persistent trough in the area. If storminess forms in Oct/Nov and hangs out in the GOA, then the warm water will probably be gone. 

 

Looking at the CFS over the last 30 days or so have featured a warming trend in the N. Pac. (the warmer water is farther south and west when compared to previous runs) which probably indicates the Aleutian low being farther south and west as time has went on.

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The warmer N. Pac has probably been because of the high pressure/La Nina most likely and it can be broken down by a strong persistent trough in the area. If storminess forms in Oct/Nov and hangs out in the GOA, then the warm water will probably be gone.

Looking at the CFS over the last 30 days or so have featured a warming trend in the N. Pac. (the warmer water is farther south and west when compared to previous runs) which probably indicates the Aleutian low being farther south and west as time has went on.

I see what you are saying I think. The warm pool was more of a leftover or persistence feature of La Niña/PDO cycle and since we've never switched to Niño over the years, it has persisted along with the resilient ridge out west.

Further south and west (mmore west than south) would be a pretty ideal location for the low to sit all winter. If it happens, I would like our chances a lot more.

I suppose if someone wanted to we could start a 2015-16 thread. I don't usually think much of winter at this point in the year but it has been a really boring summer except for the flooding early on, TS Bill and a couple of tornadoes in my area. I'm over it and ready for fall I guess.

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Pretty much, I was looking for a graphic to represent what I thought may possibly happen this winter, and I found this link. The last graphic ("Early Thoughts") is similar to what I was thinking.

 

http://epawaweather.com/2015/07/22/why-el-nino-might-not-be-as-super-for-winter-2015-2016/

 

You get the Aleutian low far enough west, and that brings the ridging farther west and we get a trough into the eastern and central US that brings down the cold. Combine that with the active STJ and we end up doing well around these parts.

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Latest constructed analog is out, these images will change:

 

Shows a fairly basin wide event fading to a more central-western based event over the winter.

 

lead2.gif

 

 

 

Fairly large Aleutian low area, with the STJ cutting across the south and southeast:

cahgt_anom.4.gif

 

 

 

This leads to below normal temps in the south and east.

 

cat2m_anom.4.gif

 

 

With above normal precip:

 

caprec_anom.4.gif

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Based on the maps alone, I'd give myself equal chances of above, below and normal in both the temps and precip categories. If the Arctic air is cut off throughout the majority of the winter, it won't be too exciting. Hopefully it can still deliver an impressive cold shot or two like 2009-10 did and a slow crawling snowstorm or 3.

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Based on the maps alone, I'd give myself equal chances of above, below and normal in both the temps and precip categories. If the Arctic air is cut off throughout the majority of the winter, it won't be too exciting. Hopefully it can still deliver an impressive cold shot or two like 2009-10 did and a slow crawling snowstorm or 3.

 

I was looking at 2009-2010 yesterday after seeing the SST analog map. That ended up being a decent winter, mainly because the AO was deeply negative which delivered cold air shots to go along with the active STJ.

 

The Christmas Eve blizzard was pretty big for OK and KS, and far W MO, but the rest of the area found themselves right on top of the track of low pressure. You can see the system over TX and the upstream system over MT. They phased, but it was too far west and only OK/KS really saw the heavier snow. You can also see the Aleutian low which led to the downstream ridge in BC.

 

dwm500_test_20091224.gif

 

 

 

 

The Jan 28th-29th storm was a nice area wide system that dropped around 5-8" of snow across the area. This one was a SW low moving out and slowly falling apart after a northern stream system delivered a cold front. 

 

dwm500_test_20100129.gif

 

 

The biggest system for our area was the March 20-21st storm. This was a 'bowling ball' type storm. Fayetteville saw nearly 14" of snow during this storm with 2"/hr rates. 

 

dwm500_test_20100321.gif

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Yeah. I checked it back after I posted that to make sure I was remembering the right winter. The setup from your maps almost matches perfectly so I suppose I was spot on. I'll never forget the January storm. Hardest snow I've ever driven through that night followed by being the coldest I've ever been at work the following night. State temperature record fell that day also. The March storm (I may be wrong on which one. It was one of the 2 storms. Jan or Mar) dropped amounts as high as 27" to my northwest about 50 miles. Probably the biggest snow/liquid ratio storm I've ever witnessed. I personally got over 18". Those 2 storms were really just perfect circumstances coming together here. May not happen again but the maps capture the pattern perfectly and lay over the models well.

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It's fun to reminisce the past events sometimes.....

Tulsa keeps a list of sig weather events here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/?n=sigwxevents

Springfield has one here:

http://www.weather.gov/sgf/event_reviews

OKC:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=events

Little Rock?:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk/?n=bigevents.htm

Yes. It definitely is. The winters of 2008-09, (huge ice and sleet storm) and 2009-10, (above mentioned events) pretty much made me a huge snow addict and winter weather nerd for good. :-) If I recall correctly, 2002-03 had some slow-crawling monsters also. I think I picked up an 8-9" snowstorm that year too. Hard to forget when you make your seasonal average in 36 hours. Thanks for the links.

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Yes. It definitely is. The winters of 2008-09, (huge ice and sleet storm) and 2009-10, (above mentioned events) pretty much made me a huge snow addict and winter weather nerd for good. :-) If I recall correctly, 2002-03 had some slow-crawling monsters also. I think I picked up an 8-9" snowstorm that year too. Hard to forget when you make your seasonal average in 36 hours. Thanks for the links.

 

I'm not sure how good 2002-2003 was down that way, but it was my fav winter of the 2000's.  An 8-12" snowstorm on Christmas Eve. An inch or so on Jan 2nd, Couple inches on Jan 15-16th. Some more light snow on Feb 5-6, Couple inches on Feb 9th, and 10-12" on Feb 23rd. 

 

2002-2003 was a moderate El Nino, with the warmest waters farther west relative to average. The CPC July numbers are in and 2015 had the warmest El Nino region 4 (0.83) since 1950, with 2002 coming in second (0.77) and 1997  (0.61). Be interesting to see what happens since most of the models are moving east to west with the warmest water as winter wears on.

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I'm not sure how good 2002-2003 was down that way, but it was my fav winter of the 2000's. An 8-12" snowstorm on Christmas Eve. An inch or so on Jan 2nd, Couple inches on Jan 15-16th. Some more light snow on Feb 5-6, Couple inches on Feb 9th, and 10-12" on Feb 23rd.

2002-2003 was a moderate El Nino, with the warmest waters farther west relative to average. The CPC July numbers are in and 2015 had the warmest El Nino region 4 (0.83) since 1950, with 2002 coming in second (0.77) and 1997 (0.61). Be interesting to see what happens since most of the models are moving east to west with the warmest water as winter wears on.

I use Fayetteville and Tulsa both for records. 2002-03 at Fayetteville listed at 15.9 total with 5.0 in the December storm and the February storm had 9.9. An inch fell in January and I believe there was a small ice storm in there too somewhere. Tulsa fared a bit better with 20.4 on that season total from the same events. There was something for everyone that year. That February storm spun in place over the area forever it seemed like before it ejected off and plowed the coast a few days later. (President's day?) That's what made it so memorable to me. It wasn't too cold that year but it sure was fun. I'd take another year like that in a minute or a 72-73. Not that I was alive then but it was a big year. My parents still talk about it and the late 70s winters of course.

Hopefully the Niño can keep evolving west.

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Fascinating article. Sorry if this has already been posted elsewhere. I like the sound of this but more important the historical data to support it.

http://www.wsi.com/blog/traders-things-that-make-you-go-hmmmm-regarding-the-upcoming-winter

Yeah. Saw the analysis of this article the other day in another subforum. It goes well with some of the years I've been analyzing also. I had no idea about this correlation at all though until I read the commentary on it. I just knew that something made 2009-10 very special for a mod-strong el nino. Now it makes a lot more sense. I very much like that not one of those years has us in a warmer than normal average. Bring it on is all I can say. If there's cold, surely snow will follow.

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JB in the Saturday summary is saying that the euro looks like some of the better winters we have ever seen here. Good to have the euro on our side.

 

Yeah, the Euro seasonal looked pretty good from what I heard and it sounds like it looked a lot like the constructed SST analog forecast that was posted last page. 

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1972-73, 2009-10, and 1976-77 are all still on the table as far as "ENSO only" type analogs are concerned. This is based completely on the strength and evolution of enso region 1+2. The Niño very obviously is headed to basin wide or west central based.

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Any insight on what the state of the QBO does in regards to winter weather? Looks to be headed to positive in the middle of winter which is total opposite of 2009-10.

 

Negative QBO is generally seen as better for blocking patterns. But DT did some work and finds that -8 to +8 or what he calls 'neutral' is good. 

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Negative QBO is generally seen as better for blocking patterns. But DT did some work and finds that -8 to +8 or what he calls 'neutral' is good.

Thank you. I've just been thinking out loud, so to speak. Hope it doesn't bother anyone. Slow day at work.

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Sat outside for awhile in the middle of the night last night and watched the meteors. Low dew points, cool air and a northeast breeze made it feel like fall for a change. It was an incredibly beautiful night. I can't wait til the next 2-3 weeks goes by.

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El Nino region 1+2 is starting to cool. That's good news as we don't want an east-based event.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

 

 

The August UKMET continues the thinking as all the other models with the warmest waters not east-based and this is just NDJ, the other models shift west with time as we go farther into winter.

 

2cat_20150801_sst_months46_global_deter_

 

500 MB map shows the Aleutian low in a pretty good spot, with a jet across the southern US.

 

2cat_20150801_z500_months46_global_deter

 

This results in temps below normal in the south US.

 

2cat_20150801_temp2m_months46_global_det

 

And above normal precip:

 

2cat_20150801_prec_months46_global_deter

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