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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2014-15 Discussion


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Ya know I say this all the time also to people I know, how hard is it for them to view a radar and see what the heck is happening lol! You cant rely on models alone all the time

Especially when the event is happening. Once the precip is here it is time to look out the window, at ground reports and at the radar, and make the model data less of a priority. They do not seem to be doing that here and it is mystifying to me.

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Especially when the event is happening. Once the precip is here it is time to look out the window, at ground reports and at the radar, and make the model data less of a priority. They do not seem to be doing that here and it is mystifying to me.

Yea man it makes no sense, its really odd when they could just do what you said ya know lol. Tulsa is also very wishy washy it seems to me most times, their forecasts are odd and out there sometimes lol. I understand its a science thats nearly impossible to get correct all the time but cmon use some common sense.

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On a side note, this storm seems odd I dont really know how to describe it. Its snowing fairly good again but its like flat and not really totaling up to much. I cant describe it, just really odd feeling and looking snow. Maybe its just me, probly time for me to lay down and nap again lol....stupid cold

 

Looks like the really heavy snow bands are setting up just southeast of here. A couple of miles southeast actually

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I am at home now on the far north side of OKC, and it is snowing hard. It is at least moderate if not heavy. There is only a dusting, but, with sun almost down and temps in the 20s, it should accumulate quickly if it keeps up at this rate. The roads were fine driving home with the snow still swirling around rather than accumulating but I suspect that will change quickly too. Heck, I hesitate to say it but even the radar suddenly looks great for this to keep for at least a few more hours.

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Wow! What a difference an hour makes. I just went out for some food, and OKC (at least the north side of town) has been transformed. Literally, an hour ago, roads were mostly dry with snow swirling around. There was certainly icy patches but traffic was moving relatively normally. Now, everything is snow-covered and just in the course of my very short trip to pick up dinner, I saw two accidents (fender benders with no obvious injuries... except to the vehicles) and I can confirm conditions are horrendous. Just eyeballing here, but about an inch of snow has accumulated (and we literally had a tenth or two at 5:10 pm when I got home so we are close an inch per hour here). Snow is still coming down moderate to heavy with visibilities at 1/2 to 3/4 per mile (and that is a liberal estimate... it is definitely closer to 1/2 mile and maybe even 1/4 mile).

I hereby retract and apologize for all earlier snark. Like any addict, as a snow weenie, I am incapable of being patient during times of tricky forecasts. Having said that, I heartily recommend that any and all who are experiencing this get your butts outside and enjoy. We may not see snow like this for a couple of years, and we definitely won't see it for the next 8 or 9 months so please, please, please enjoy. God bless and Godspeed.

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It should be doing something here, based on radar, but it isn't. They quickly cancelled school for tomorrow though, after the problems this morning, lol.

 

So let's see, if I grade this winter by month:

 

December = F

January = F

February = C

 

Looks like Winter was about a D. 

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It should be doing something here, based on radar, but it isn't. They quickly cancelled school for tomorrow though, after the problems this morning, lol.

 

So let's see, if I grade this winter by month:

 

December = F

January = F

February = C

 

Looks like Winter was about a D. 

 

 Dec.-  F

Jan  -  F

Feb.-  B+ .

    Although the first two weeks  were a bust but, from the 14th on it was an A+ .   We had several snows during that time with snow on the ground throughout the rest of the month . The total amount of snow was  10 inches which is more than the normal for the whole winter ,  In just two weeks  :lmao:

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It should be doing something here, based on radar, but it isn't. They quickly cancelled school for tomorrow though, after the problems this morning, lol.

So let's see, if I grade this winter by month:

December = F

January = F

February = C

Looks like Winter was about a D.

I give December and January a G. Lol

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Snow is tapering off here now. I haven't measured yet, but it looks like close to 3" out there right now.

 

 

About the same here too.  I was getting worried this afternoon, but kept telling friends the snow was still coming.  The radar just had that look, with the precip shield still off to the SW and yet to move E.  I slid coming out of intersections a couple of times on the way home, and I was being very cautious, so roads are definitely pretty bad here.  Wish our whole OK/AR/MO region could get in all at once on a big storm.  In that respect, this Winter has definitely been a disappointment.  Not a shutout, but disappointing still.

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Probly 2.5" here maybe a tad more, hard to tell because of the wind whipping stuff around everywhere. I think this is some of the most beautiful snow I have ever seen, it reminds me of snow I once saw in a noreaster in New Jersey in the late 80's. Its mega sparkly and really dry and flat. Anyone else notice that lol? The texture is really odd but man its so neat!

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Probly 2.5" here maybe a tad more, hard to tell because of the wind whipping stuff around everywhere. I think this is some of the most beautiful snow I have ever seen, it reminds me of snow I once saw in a noreaster in New Jersey in the late 80's. Its mega sparkly and really dry and flat. Anyone else notice that lol? The texture is really odd but man its so neat!

Yeah. It is really beautiful. I'll take it as a last snow of the season if it is the last one. The last decent band appears to be getting ready to pass over me now.

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With this one behind us (and with severe season and summer holding no particular interest for me), I am curious if anyone thinks we have one last shot at wintry weather.  The 6z GFS kind of hints at the possibility of something wintry in the 8 to 10 day range.  Anybody have any thoughts on it?  In New Jersey, there was a reasonable possibility that it could snow into the first week or two of April (if a lot of things went just right).  I know the snow season won't go that long here, but is mid-March out of the realm of possibility for something frozen in these parts?  

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With this one behind us (and with severe season and summer holding no particular interest for me), I am curious if anyone thinks we have one last shot at wintry weather.  The 6z GFS kind of hints at the possibility of something wintry in the 8 to 10 day range.  Anybody have any thoughts on it?  In New Jersey, there was a reasonable possibility that it could snow into the first week or two of April (if a lot of things went just right).  I know the snow season won't go that long here, but is mid-March out of the realm of possibility for something frozen in these parts?  

 

Nope, mid-March is not out of the realm of possibility.  Actually, some of Oklahoma's biggest snowfalls have occurred in March.  There was a storm on March 27-28, 2009 that dropped a ton of snow on NW Oklahoma.  Here's the NWS link to that event: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=events-20090327

 

I would say for OKC area, the limit for winter weather is about April 1.

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Well we had snow a couple of years ago in May here in SW MO, but that is very, very rare. In general, the end of March is the end of real snow chances here, too. Mid-March snows tend to be very big dumps that are melted in a couple of days. They can draw in the moisture that storms in the dead of winter typically can't access. 

 

Anyway, I am just ready for spring! :) 

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Here are a couple of take-aways I having from this winter:

1. Don't get too excited in October - although I wouldn't begin to argue with the experts and research done on Eurasia snow cover in October it appears that there are more important factors that must come into play as well. Plus November was so amazingly cold we all got too excited too early.

2. Don't give up on Jan 31st - things looked awful before February but we somehow squeaked out a 4th quarter rally. It wasn't a great comeback but we stopped the shutout and put some respectable points on the board.

Anyone else have any others to add?

I'm kinda bummed we all disappear until Oct/Nov. That's only 8 months away though!!!!

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Here are a couple of take-aways I having from this winter:

1. Don't get too excited in October - although I wouldn't begin to argue with the experts and research done on Eurasia snow cover in October it appears that there are more important factors that must come into play as well. Plus November was so amazingly cold we all got too excited too early.

2. Don't give up on Jan 31st - things looked awful before February but we somehow squeaked out a 4th quarter rally. It wasn't a great comeback but we stopped the shutout and put some respectable points on the board.

Anyone else have any others to add?

I'm kinda bummed we all disappear until Oct/Nov. That's only 8 months away though!!!!

I hang around. I just don't like posting to myself. I know JoMo is always around, too. I love weather of all types. Maybe we will see more activity this season. 

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Here are a couple of take-aways I having from this winter:

1. Don't get too excited in October - although I wouldn't begin to argue with the experts and research done on Eurasia snow cover in October it appears that there are more important factors that must come into play as well. Plus November was so amazingly cold we all got too excited too early.

2. Don't give up on Jan 31st - things looked awful before February but we somehow squeaked out a 4th quarter rally. It wasn't a great comeback but we stopped the shutout and put some respectable points on the board.

Anyone else have any others to add?

I'm kinda bummed we all disappear until Oct/Nov. That's only 8 months away though!!!!

 

 

1. The snow cover indexes failed terribly this year. The AO was supposed to average negative, but instead was mostly positive this winter. The -EPO played a big role in getting the cold into the US, yet again this year.

 

2. It became pretty apparent that the 'epic' winter that was advertised from many meteorologists and many forecasts wasn't going to happen. December was well above normal and January was above normal to near normal (for NW AR) but due to Feb, we ended up below normal. (Joe D'Aleo's analogs were not too bad at all and he didn't do bad, JB was too cold)

 

DJF2015.png

 

 

 

3. It's been really hard to get a storm to 'wrap up', I suspect that is due to the strong +PDO causing the flow to be more from the NW and ridging to prevail in the west. Any time a storm would try to come out from the southwest, it would be crushed by the northern steam. We saw a lot of positive tilted troughs and overrunning situations, something that is more typical in La Nina years. 

 

 

 

Individual severe threads are created during storm season in the subforum, and we have some very knowledgeable severe weather people from other forums that post in those threads. Summer is boring around here though so everyone wanders off and hibernates until late fall, lol 

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