JoMo Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Some of the Old GFS 18z Ensembles still have spread and timing issues but do show precip with the weekend system. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 12, 2014 Author Share Posted November 12, 2014 I think I like the new GFS.... Good fantasy storm production! That escalated quickly. Haha. All I can say is wow if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Will be interesting to see if the 00z run hones in on this idea or it goes back to the direction it came from. The folks up MSP way can tell you that the northern shift can be a bear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Will be interesting to see if the 00z run hones in on this idea or it goes back to the direction it came from. The folks up MSP way can tell you that the northern shift can be a bear. Definitely. Climo supports a farther north track this time of year. A lot of the 12z Euro ensemble members were farther north so I'm a bit worried it may end up in central or NE Kansas into NW MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 You know it won't snow here this weekend when Ron Hearst starts mentioning 3-6" of snow this early for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Well hello there sir. Saw your son the other day. Hope he told you hello from me. Hello 24/7 good to hear from you. And yes my son said he saw you and delivered your greetings to me that day. Hope all is going well for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Here's the 00z PGFS snow output for the weekend system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Whether it happens or not remains to be seen but the PGFS has been consistent with this for at least the last 5 or 6 runs. A couple of our local mets here in NWAR are still riding the fence with 1-2 inch amounts "at most". Dan Skoff on KNWA did show the water vapor imagery of the storm well of the west coast. He thinks it's going to come in stronger than the models predict so he's waiting until Thursday before he issues a snow map. He's always very bullish and excited about snow where the other 2 local mets are more laid back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Whether it happens or not remains to be seen but the PGFS has been consistent with this for at least the last 5 or 6 runs. A couple of our local mets here in NWAR are still riding the fence with 1-2 inch amounts "at most". Dan Skoff on KNWA did show the water vapor imagery of the storm well of the west coast. He thinks it's going to come in stronger than the models predict so he's waiting until Thursday before he issues a snow map. He's always very bullish and excited about snow where the other 2 local mets are more laid back. Tulsa Mets are saying mix or flurries.. not much excitement at all. But still remains to be seen. PGFS keeps things interesting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Well... this time of year, before Thanksgiving, I'd be pretty happy with flurries.... Hope it's more though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 00z Euro goes north with the initial precip on Saturday. Central to NE KS and NW MO the hardest hit areas. Back end of the system comes out Sunday with a bit of additional precip. 'snow' map has 2" from roughly just south of Tulsa east across to south of Fayetteville and north of a line from there. Heaviest amounts end up in much of Kansas and northwest of Joplin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 12, 2014 Author Share Posted November 12, 2014 Cool. I'm still pulling for the PGFS. Haha. Euro is still very consistent though with the 2 inch amounts that it has been showing. I'm becoming more and more convinced that I'll see at least 2 inches of snow anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 12Z PGFS 102 hours Jomo hit the jackpot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 12, 2014 Author Share Posted November 12, 2014 12Z PGFS 102 hours Jomo hit the jackpot! That's a much better run than the 6z was! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 And the 12Z GFS @102 hours as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Well maybe he will "Win it all" ,but I do hope he shares some of his winnings. ☺ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 12, 2014 Author Share Posted November 12, 2014 I did some research on the Parallel GFS last night. It is supposed to be better at resolving precip amounts than its predecessor. I hope that's what we're seeing in the differences between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Let's see what the mighty Euro says at noon. I don't like what JoMo posted last night on the 00z run that it's shifting north into KS and Central MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I did some research on the Parallel GFS last night. It is supposed to be better at resolving precip amounts than its predecessor. I hope that's what we're seeing in the differences between the two. Yea. And 3 days out now.. you would think the models would start lining up more. And we are about to enter the good ole NAM and see what it's putting on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Let's see what the mighty Euro says at noon. I don't like what JoMo posted last night on the 00z run that it's shifting north into KS and Central MO. Yea I think the euro won't change much from 0z with its trend... and that I don't like as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 12, 2014 Author Share Posted November 12, 2014 Yea I think the euro won't change much from 0z with its trend... and that I don't like as well. I'm kind of afraid of that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 12z Euro moved a bit farther north this run. Heaviest from central and northern KS to NW MO. Generally less than 2" around Tulsa and NE OK....Only area showing 2" is across the far NE counties of NE OK along the border. Around 2" around Fayetteville and points north (there's a slightly heavier band SE of I-44). Greatest snow is NW of Ft. Scott, KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 12z Euro moved a bit farther north this run. Heaviest from central and northern KS to NW MO. Generally less than 2" around Tulsa and NE OK....Only area showing 2" is across the far NE counties of NE OK along the border. Around 2" around Fayetteville and points north (there's a slightly heavier band SE of I-44). Greatest snow is NW of Ft. Scott, KS. To be expected this time of year. I'm not shocked at this run at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I think we'd all be satisfied with 2" of snow in mid November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 It will probably end up less than 2", as far as actual accumulations go. However, I think there's a pretty good shot at most people in our area seeing actual snow in the air or at least flurries. Good 'mood' weather to get you into the winter spirit, plus it's always nice to see a bit of snow to get the whole worry that it won't snow at all out of the way. There are signals that the cold will probably lose it's grip for a time, and that there may be a pattern shuffle as there have been changes the last few runs on the Euro ensembles. More on that after the 12z ensemble run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 12, 2014 Author Share Posted November 12, 2014 I think we'd all be satisfied with 2" of snow in mid November. Most definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 It will probably end up less than 2", as far as actual accumulations go. However, I think there's a pretty good shot at most people in our area seeing actual snow in the air or at least flurries. Good 'mood' weather to get you into the winter spirit, plus it's always nice to see a bit of snow to get the whole worry that it won't snow at all out of the way. There are signals that the cold will probably lose it's grip for a time, and that there may be a pattern shuffle as there have been changes the last few runs on the Euro ensembles. More on that after the 12z ensemble run. Yea I think a bit of snow could still fly around. I expect a few snow showers or mixed showers.. better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 So the Euro ensembles have been shifting things up and that continues with today's 12z run. The trough that has been near us or to our east will eventually shift off to the northeast. The ridge over the west up into Alaska will break down and push east across the Plains, but it should be very transient. Troughing redevelops in the west and up into Alaska which is a reversal of the ridge that delivered us the cold air. It remains there through the end of the run. The general outlook is for temps to warm to normal/above normal by the 23rd or 24th or so. This will probably result in several days around or above normal, with the coldest air in the western US into NW Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 12, 2014 Author Share Posted November 12, 2014 So the Euro ensembles have been shifting things up and that continues with today's 12z run. The trough that has been near us or to our east will eventually shift off to the northeast. The ridge over the west up into Alaska will break down and push east across the Plains, but it should be very transient. Troughing redevelops in the west and up into Alaska which is a reversal of the ridge that delivered us the cold air. It remains there through the end of the run. The general outlook is for temps to warm to normal/above normal by the 23rd or 24th or so. This will probably result in several days around or above normal, with the coldest air in the western US into NW Canada. Good analysis man! Boy the temperatures are sure starting to crash already. Only made 34 here for a couple of hours. Was supposed to be 39. Now back to 30 already. Gonna be a long cold night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 JoMo is just full of good news today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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