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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2014-15 Discussion


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Not so fast on the bust in OK everyone.  HRRR and latest NAM (for what it's worth) have snow forming over the I-44 corridor in the state, with general 2-4" totals this afternoon.  Radar looks like it is starting to fill in SW of here.  I'm actually feeling good about this right now.

 

We'll see how I feel later this afternoon.....

Thank you! :) That is what I was seeing, too. The actual last piece of energy for most of us is still back in W TX. 

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It's headed your way. Just started sleeting in Rogers around 9:15. Roads getting icy already.

Funny cause it just started here now lol, sleet freezing rain mix. And my weather station just decided to poo out on me, go figure lol. Last I looked it said 32 still

 

Just heard a rumble of thunder!

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This system is still expected to be primarily SE of I-44 when it comes to our area, it's actually kind of eerie looking at the HRRR and seeing all the precip along and SE of it, like it's an actual dividing line. 

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This system is still expected to be primarily SE of I-44 when it comes to our area, it's actually kind of eerie looking at the HRRR and seeing all the precip along and SE of it, like it's an actual dividing line. 

Do you think I have a chance at seeing some snow from this? Tulsa still says 1-2" of the white stuff later. Stuff supposed to be over with by early tonight though instead of noon tomorrow now.

 

For now I am going to go lay back down, I am sick bad bad. I think from getting soaked in that zr the last time taking pics did this, the stuff I do for all you people jeeesh lmao....J/K. Your all like friendly good neighbors to me now, we ae one big forum family haha

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Do you think I have a chance at seeing some snow from this? Tulsa still says 1-2" of the white stuff later. Stuff supposed to be over with by early tonight though instead of noon tomorrow now.

 

For now I am going to go lay back down, I am sick bad bad. I think from getting soaked in that zr the last time taking pics did this, the stuff I do for all you people jeeesh lmao....J/K. Your all like friendly good neighbors to me now, we ae one big forum family haha

 

yeah, as the cold air deepens, it will switch over. You still have several more rounds to go through 

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Not so fast on the bust in OK everyone.  HRRR and latest NAM (for what it's worth) have snow forming over the I-44 corridor in the state, with general 2-4" totals this afternoon.  Radar looks like it is starting to fill in SW of here.  I'm actually feeling good about this right now.

 

We'll see how I feel later this afternoon.....

 

I hope you are right.  I am totally not feeling it right now.  The radar looks a bit better to our immediate south and west, but it appears to be mostly light sleet and it appears to be developing at the expense of the heavier snow band further south and west, which looks to be breaking up a bit.  

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This will go down as a huge bust for OK. 24 hours out, closing schools looked warranted, but not now. YIKES. They bit a little too soon.

 

Everybody falls into this trap from time to time.  A week ago Monday, we had a similar situation (snow arrived around 8 am so schools opened on schedule).  Then, snow got heavy, and the OKC school district had a heck of a time getting kids home and caught a LOT of grief from parents.  This time, to avoid that happening again, they cancelled school much too soon (they announced in time for it to be on the late news, and now, kids are sitting at home for no apparent reason and parents are grumbling for the exact opposite reason.  Honestly, I don't think it is a forecasting problem so much as it is a communication problem.  Forecasters need to do a better job of explaining the uncertainties and what could "go wrong" with a forecast.  Mind you, they will never get the general public to listen, but they can certainly get school officials and business owners and other decision makers to understand so they can make better choices.  

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Everybody falls into this trap from time to time.  A week ago Monday, we had a similar situation (snow arrived around 8 am so schools opened on schedule).  Then, snow got heavy, and the OKC school district had a heck of a time getting kids home and caught a LOT of grief from parents.  This time, to avoid that happening again, they cancelled school much too soon (they announced in time for it to be on the late news, and now, kids are sitting at home for no apparent reason and parents are grumbling for the exact opposite reason.  Honestly, I don't think it is a forecasting problem so much as it is a communication problem.  Forecasters need to do a better job of explaining the uncertainties and what could "go wrong" with a forecast.  Mind you, they will never get the general public to listen, but they can certainly get school officials and business owners and other decision makers to understand so they can make better choices.  

Meanwhile some schools in SW MO had classes and now are trying to dismiss early and send the students home in the middle of this mess. It is always a tough call in these situations. I would feel like it would be better to err on the side of caution though... especially if road crews and equipment can't handle the snow/ice if it comes. 

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Meanwhile some schools in SW MO had classes and now are trying to dismiss early and send the students home in the middle of this mess. It is always a tough call in these situations. I would feel like it would be better to err on the side of caution though... especially if road crews and equipment can't handle the snow/ice if it comes. 

 

Here in OKC, it sounds like a mob of parents armed with torches and pitchforks is about the storm the Board of Education building because they cancelled schools last night, and we are now apparently not getting any snow.  LOL.  Seriously, I'd hate to be the person making that final decision because it is a difficult thing to do, but it is downright comical how often they get it wrong.   

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Meanwhile some schools in SW MO had classes and now are trying to dismiss early and send the students home in the middle of this mess. It is always a tough call in these situations. I would feel like it would be better to err on the side of caution though... especially if road crews and equipment can't handle the snow/ice if it comes. 

 

Joplin had a major problem this morning that have the parents angry. They cancelled middle school and high school because it started freezing rain and sleeting heavily, however, the busses were already running for the elementary schools, so they weren't closed. They then said it was up to the parents on whether to send their kids to school or come and pick them up, but the school was cancelled and absences wouldn't count. The superintendent said it was because the "National Weather Center" told him they were only expecting 1-3" of 'dry snow' at the 4:15 AM conference call, so he didn't cancel school... however, the grids had freezing rain/sleet/snow until afternoon. 

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Here in OKC, it sounds like a mob of parents armed with torches and pitchforks is about the storm the Board of Education building because they cancelled schools last night, and we are now apparently not getting any snow. LOL. Seriously, I'd hate to be the person making that final decision because it is a difficult thing to do, but it is downright comical how often they get it wrong.

Yeah. I think caution is the way to go also. It's impossible to please everyone in that situation especially those lacking good common sense. Lol

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HRRR doesn't seem to have a good handle on the snow up in NC OK. That is really producing some decent snowfall rates. Will be interesting to watch it hold together as it pushes east over time. That will put areas along and north of 412 in its path. 

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HRRR doesn't seem to have a good handle on the snow up in NC OK. That is really producing some decent snowfall rates. Will be interesting to watch it hold together as it pushes east over time. That will put areas along and north of 412 in its path. 

 

Yeah, I'm not sure what the deal is with that, RAP/HRRR have it falling apart though as precip develops farther south and east of it.

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