NJ_Ken Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 OUN has nice graphic up with their forecast. In the I-44 corridor, they are looking at 1/4" to 1/2" of sleet followed by 2" to 4" of snow. To the northwest of that, they are calling for a general 1" to 3" of snow, and to the southeast, they are calling for 1/10" of ice, 1/2" to 3/4" of sleet, and 2" of snow. For the the Tulsa, NW Arkansas, and SE MO folks, you could probably extrapolate something similar for yourselves. At this point, while plenty can still happen with the breakdown between ice, sleet, and snow, I'd like to think the models are pretty locked in on how much frozen precip is coming and for whom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Looking better for you all down south, but the 18z NAM keeps up with the slow south trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The start time is now delayed until early tomorrow morning around 4-6 am for most locations. This is a few hours later than what was showing 24 hours ago. I wonder if the later start allows the cold air to arrive early enough to minimize the fz rain/sleet. The cold front appears ahead of schedule as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The start time is now delayed until early tomorrow morning around 4-6 am for most locations. This is a few hours later than what was showing 24 hours ago. I wonder if the later start allows the cold air to arrive early enough to minimize the fz rain/sleet. The cold front appears ahead of schedule as well. If it holds off until 6 am, this could be a serious mess. Schools... and plenty of businesses, too... typically make the call to close for the day by 6 am. If there is nothing frozen out there, most schools are going to open and we will end up in the same situation we were in a week ago Monday (and that Dallas was in last Friday) where heavy snow began just after school started so kids are in school, their parents are at work, and the roads are turning awful. Then, schools are left debating how to get the kids home in such conditions and/or what to do if the parents aren't able to make arrangements for childcare for a kid getting home early.... and, if they hold the kids in school, they risk even worse conditions trying to get them home at the end of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 18z GFS continues it's south trend as well. Springfield says 2-5" here, but they may bust high if this south trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 We're under a Winter Storm warning ; ... Winter Storm Warning in effect from 3 am Wednesday to 6 am CSTThursday...The National Weather Service in Springfield has issued a WinterStorm Warning for snow... sleet and freezing rain... which is ineffect from 3 am Wednesday to 6 am CST Thursday. The Winter StormWatch is no longer in effect.* Timing and areas affected... areas along and southeast of a linefrom Kimberling City... to Marshfield to Salem from very latetonight until early Thursday morning.* Snow and sleet accumulations... a half inch or more ofsleet... along with 4 to 6 inches of snow will be possible. Theheavier sleet accumulations will occur in the southern portionsof the warning area.* Ice accumulations... a glaze to seven hundredths of an inch offreezing rain will be possible.* Winds and visibility... gusty north winds... combined withmoderate to at times heavy snow... will likely result invisibility below one mile for much of the day on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 South trend continues on the 00z NAM. NW and northern Arkansas gonna get nailed by snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Wow sure is impressive in Ark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Jomo, I think you mean NE and northern Arkansas going to get nailed. Not NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I am curious as to the amount of snow on the map versus the precip grids. It looks a bit off to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Sounds like bust potential here in OK! I am just not feeling this storm since most of the model runs tonight have gone too south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Hmm that map paints between 8.5-10.5" for here lol, and man it just started to pour down rain! Just came out of no where Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I am curious as to the amount of snow on the map versus the precip grids. It looks a bit off to me... It's contaminated by sleet so the 'high' amounts are way overdone. The south movement of the snow/frozen line can be seen easily though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 All the local school districts have already announced they will be closed tomorrow... and, right on cue, the models immediately started backing way off on the potential for wintry precip. All these kids in Central OK may not even have any snow to play in on their day off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Euro shifted to the SE, like all the other models have been doing. I think NW AR has the best chance of seeing the greatest amounts of frozen stuff in our area. SE of I-44 in OK and MO doesn't look too bad either... greatest amounts the farther east and south you go from I-44 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Wow..last minute wagons southeast on everything....bummer. Guess I will take my 1-2 inches and get ready for Spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Prob be slop here with a snowy frosting on top. Well see later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 SE shift can mean good or bad for here or what? Doesnt sound good lol...the forecast says 1-2" at most total of everything still lol, and yet a warning. I think tulsa may have jumped the gun too darn early again idk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Quick question: where can I find access to the HRRR reflectivity simulation that differentiates between precip types? I am sure it is right under my nose, but can't seem to find it anywhere. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The updated NWS at 3:30am sez 4"-6" snow for Ozark county with 1/10" ice 1/2" sleet or more. I hope it moves more to the West and a bit N. so that all of us get a good snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 6:53 am obs from Joplin airport showing light snow @ 27°. Keep those obs coming fellas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 32/sleet/freezing rain here in Tulsa. THIS SUCKS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 32/sleet/freezing rain here in Tulsa. THIS SUCKS Same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Sleet/snow mix here in Monett... this is going to cut down on the snow totals although the radar still looks good back into OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 We've dropped below freezing here, but there is nothing falling from the sky... and nothing incoming in the near term. Good thing they closed the schools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 This will go down as a huge bust for OK. 24 hours out, closing schools looked warranted, but not now. YIKES. They bit a little too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I'm worried this is going to be a total bust. Does the precip move out before the cold air is deep enough??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I'm worried this is going to be a total bust. Does the precip move out before the cold air is deep enough??? You have several more hours... lots more time... for the precip to add up. Final wave is just now getting going out in W TX/E NM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 34 still here and raining off and on. Eh not impressed by this warning event so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Not so fast on the bust in OK everyone. HRRR and latest NAM (for what it's worth) have snow forming over the I-44 corridor in the state, with general 2-4" totals this afternoon. Radar looks like it is starting to fill in SW of here. I'm actually feeling good about this right now. We'll see how I feel later this afternoon..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.