Wx 24/7 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 KOLR 10 Meteorologist Jamie Warriner is going out on a limb saying 6-9" for far southern Missouri with this storm. Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 KOLR 10 Meteorologist Jamie Warriner is going out on a limb saying 6-9" for far southern Missouri with this storm. Interesting... I'm not going to say or suggest anything until tomorrow. Looks pretty exciting right now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm not going to say or suggest anything until tomorrow. Looks pretty exciting right now though. I thought it was a bit earlier to be going so big... but what do I know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I thought it was a bit earlier to be going so big... but what do I know? Yeah it is, with a sharp cutoff on the northern side of the system, and a very track dependent kind of system, it's probably too early. I could see those amounts being possible in maybe parts of SE MO and probably only then located in a mesoscale band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 00z NAM (probably contaminated by sleet) but from the first 3 or so NE OK counties down to Benton County, AR, and points north, this is probably snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 00z GFS stuck to it's guns on positioning it looks like, less precip this run as well. Pretty huge differences between the GFS and NAM snow wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I have a feeling this is either going to be incredible or an incredible flop. Doesn't feel like there's a middle ground here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 And then we have this from the 00z GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Annnnnnnd back to the west goes the 00z Euro. I wonder what kind of ratios the snow would be with the temp hanging out in the mid 20's with -8 to -10 850 MB temps for up here? Maybe there will be more model agreement later today, doubt it though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Do you have a map of the Euro?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Things starting to look like a significant storm is coming together for us? Local mets getting more serious and models are beginning to lock in on colder/wetter solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Do you have a map of the Euro?? Can't post Hires Euro maps due to licensing issues. As far as QPF is concerned (not sure of ptype), from the 12z run to the 00z run.... Tulsa gained around 0.1", whatever area that is just south of Tulsa gained 0.3", OKC area looks to have gained 0.2" or so. Joplin gained 0.2", F'ville gained about 0.4" and the rest of the NW AR metro area gained about 0.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Thanks Jomo..this may turn out to be interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Thanks, JoMo. Really appreciate you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The UKMET definitely uses a different snow algorithm on WxBell. I don't think it counts freezing rain (like the Euro) or sleet (like the GFS) Looks like a nice 2-4" of snow (10:1 ratio) for most everyone, including central OK, maybe an inch or two more across NW AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I hope that GGEM is wrong, that sticks me right in the donut hole of nothingness once again lol. Though I would not be shocked the way things have tracked either too far south or too far north this season, minus the last one I just got plain stupid lucky on haha. Things look to get warmer for sure after that! Stuff will probly stick around(whatever falls) for a day at most. What's your thinking JoMo(probly getting sick of us all bugging you by now huh man lol) you think this will be it for the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 This is a very tricky situation. The setup is similar to the kind where we traditionally get some big snows. 4km NAM is very fascinating this morning. Think somebody in this situation gets a foot out of this thing... most likely just east of us (from Branson to Harrison). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Morning all, don't mean to barge in on your thread but wanted to post a couple thoughts about the upcoming system. The models for last weeks snow in the SE had some similarities to your upcoming storm. The NAM was much juicier & further N than any other model. When all was said and done it did quite well with qpf in some spots but busted in others. It's temps are another story. While as usual a blend of models is normally the best route with any winter system, imho I would not totally discount the NAM. SGF even mentions some of this in their latest AFD which is posted & highlighted below. I have a vested interest in SW MO WX as my Mom lives in Joplin. Good luck to you all & here's to a over performer! Tonight is when the transition will begin. A cold air mass willforce a cold front through the entire area during the evening,with temperatures eventually dropping below the freezing mark fromaround 11 pm onward from northwest to southeast. Precipitationwill begin to expand overnight as upper level energy moves towardsthe area from the northwest and a very strong upper level jetintensifies. Initially a warm layer above freezing (800-700mb)will be in place over the southeastern half of the CWA, but thiswill be eroded in time as cold air moves in from the northwest. Sothere may be an initial period of rain changing to freezing rainthen sleet and eventually snow along and south of I-44.This transition line should push totally south of the area by latemorning Wednesday with all snow expected after that point. Modelscontinue to show drastic differences in the QPF fields with theNAM remaining the most aggressive. All are showing prettysubstantial lifting from late tonight through Wednesday, and whilethe NAM may be a significant outlier, I don`t want to completelyrule it out at this point. All are expecting the highestprobability of accumulating snowfall along and southeast of theI-44 corridor which is what we have been advertising and willcontinue to do so. Still have lower confidence in specific amountsat this time due to continued model differences, but given theintensity of the dynamics, would not be surprised to see amountsmove towards what the NAM is suggesting. Fly in ointment for thistime of year will be the higher sun angle we start seeing in Marchand daytime snowfall is harder to accumulate because of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Well, there is still enough doubt on this that OUN is sticking with the Special Weather Statement for now. It appears that Tulsa is doing the same for its Oklahoma counties. I don't blame them. Too many regular folks react to simply hearing the words "Advisory" or "Warning" without listening to the details or watching for updates so it is best... for now... to see if the 12z model suite agrees on more of the details, and then, issue advisories and/or warnings as appropriate. I am still cautiously optimistic, but, as a true weenie, I can also see the all the ways this can turn into nothing very quickly. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Morning all, don't mean to barge in on your thread but wanted to post a couple thoughts about the upcoming system. The models for last weeks snow in the SE had some similarities to your upcoming storm. The NAM was much juicier & further N than any other model. When all was said and done it did quite well with qpf in some spots but busted in others. It's temps are another story. While as usual a blend of models is normally the best route with any winter system, imho I would not totally discount the NAM. SGF even mentions some of this in their latest AFD which is posted & highlighted below. I have a vested interest in SW MO WX as my Mom lives in Joplin. Good luck to you all & here's to a over performer! Tonight is when the transition will begin. A cold air mass will force a cold front through the entire area during the evening, with temperatures eventually dropping below the freezing mark from around 11 pm onward from northwest to southeast. Precipitation will begin to expand overnight as upper level energy moves towards the area from the northwest and a very strong upper level jet intensifies. Initially a warm layer above freezing (800-700mb) will be in place over the southeastern half of the CWA, but this will be eroded in time as cold air moves in from the northwest. So there may be an initial period of rain changing to freezing rain then sleet and eventually snow along and south of I-44. This transition line should push totally south of the area by late morning Wednesday with all snow expected after that point. Models continue to show drastic differences in the QPF fields with the NAM remaining the most aggressive. All are showing pretty substantial lifting from late tonight through Wednesday, and while the NAM may be a significant outlier, I don`t want to completely rule it out at this point. All are expecting the highest probability of accumulating snowfall along and southeast of the I-44 corridor which is what we have been advertising and will continue to do so. Still have lower confidence in specific amounts at this time due to continued model differences, but given the intensity of the dynamics, would not be surprised to see amounts move towards what the NAM is suggesting. Fly in ointment for this time of year will be the higher sun angle we start seeing in March and daytime snowfall is harder to accumulate because of this. With input like that you can barge all you want. Thank you. What time is all of this supposed to start kicking off? Anyone know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 With input like that you can barge all you want. Thank you. What time is all of this supposed to start kicking off? Anyone know? OUN has a decent graphic posted for their CWA. You can extrapolate that out for your area. It calls for wintry precip for an area the includes Clinton, Stillwater and OKC to start at around 3 am tomorrow morning and continue until 6 pm Wednesday. If you extrapolate their graphic, that area would likely include Tulsa and points 30 or so miles north and south, continuing north an east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Looks like the 12z NAM is coming back to reality. It actually lines up somewhat well with the 12z GFS. I hate these sharp northern cutoffs to the precip type of systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Looks like someone could get hit pretty hard by this depending on where things set up. Tulsa already hinting for 2-4" here or higher depending on things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Winter weather adv in central ok. Still nothing from Tulsa or Springfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Winter weather adv in central ok. Still nothing from Tulsa or Springfield. They'll be coming out this afternoon. Springfield has it tough with the northern cutoff to the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 OUN has posted advisories for basically their entire CWA. It sounds like they are still struggling a bit with how the sleet/snow/freezing rain will break down, which is to be expected. They did say that, to the south of I-44 up to an inch of sleet is possible, and, in Central OK, the immediate I-44 corridor could see 2" to 4" of snow in addition to sleet. They also stated that the likely transition time to freezing rain and sleet is daybreak tomorrow with a transition to snow and sleet starting around noon and, then, continuing into the evening. They are saying the heaviest stuff should be coming down here between 3 pm and 9 pm. I am thinking this might be a worst case scenario for travelers: Nothing frozen until most businesses/schools have made their decisions on whether to close or not. Then, sleet, which doesn't melt nearly so quickly as individual snowflakes, falling during the middle of the day when the March sun would otherwise be quite vicious about melting snowflakes or freezing rain on many surfaces. Finally, transitioning to mostly snow later in the afternoon just as the sun stops being a major factor and just in time for the evening rush to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 12z Euro has shifted south a bit. That northern cutoff keeps getting closer to me. Edit: Amounts in our area look pretty similar to last nights run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Winter storm warning now here, really warning criteria is 2-4" here wow! lol.....will see how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Winter storm warning now here, really warning criteria is 2-4" here wow! lol.....will see how this plays out. I think they are considering the ice with that and went ahead with the warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I think they are considering the ice with that and went ahead with the warning. True, I cant think today! I guess all the sleet and zr after midnight, or whenever it changes over. Looks to be all snow tomorrow during the day but this high sun angle is gonna kill that quick with it being during the daytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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