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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2014-15 Discussion


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12z Euro has come northward from it's 00z run as well. Frozen precip from central MO on south into Arkansas. SE KS as well. Heaviest is still SE of I-44, with NW AR getting the most. It's difficult to discern exactly how much of this would be snow and how much would be other forms of frozen precip. The greatest chance for snow will be in SE KS and SW MO, with more of a mixture possible down into Arkansas and Oklahoma, where currently the heaviest precip resides. Precip moves in Wed morning, after temps across our area have fallen below freezing. 

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Bleh when is this for JoMo? Tuesday night into wednesday morning? Freezing rain and sleet I take it for here right now? We got a good amount of it last night man! Everything was solid ice but its all just about melted off now except the grassy areas which is under an inch of slush too.

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12z Euro has come northward from it's 00z run as well. Frozen precip from central MO on south into Arkansas. SE KS as well. Heaviest is still SE of I-44, with NW AR getting the most. It's difficult to discern exactly how much of this would be snow and how much would be other forms of frozen precip. The greatest chance for snow will be in SE KS and SW MO, with more of a mixture possible down into Arkansas and Oklahoma, where currently the heaviest precip resides. Precip moves in Wed morning, after temps across our area have fallen below freezing.

Thanks for the update Jomo. How heavy does the Euro look with precip down in central OK?

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For NW AR, it would be late Tues night/Wed morning into Wed afternoon, not sure about type yet but the Euro is generating a lot of precip. Hard to tell exactly how much because they are so tightly packed together, but probably between 0.7-0.9" or so this run.

 

For Central OK, it would be late Tues night. Precip isn't that heavy (0.2-0.3") and at this time, 850 MB temps would be close, so it may be a mixed bag as well. Better chances for precip are just off to your east and southeast. 

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UKMET must have a better precip type algorithm. It has 5" of snowfall for Joplin with 0.9" of precip and 5" of snowfall with 1" of precip in Springfield.....and the snow barely gets down into NE OK and far NW AR. So there is probably quite a mix down that way. 

 

12z Euro ensembles are still all over the place in placement and vary greatly with amounts. The mean still has the most frozen precip across Arkansas somewhere. 

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Springfield AFD:

 

Heading into Wednesday, the cold front will slow to our south, as a

strong mid and upper level jet strengthens and backbuilds from the
Great Lakes into the Central Plains. Right now, there remains a
fair amount of uncertainty as to where exactly the upper jet axis
will develop, with the ECMWF a bit further north than the GFS and SREF
mean, with the GFS Ensemble mean and GEM somewhere in between. The
exact location of the right entrance region of said jet will be key
to snow potential for Wednesday, with a fairly intense band of snow
expected to develop where the jet circulation combines with an area
of low level frontogenesis. Right now, it`s not clear whether this
will happen across our CWA (south of I-44 would be most prone) or
whether the band will remain south of the entire forecast area.
Have hedged a bit toward a more southerly solution, given the
tendency of model guidance to underestimate the speed and magnitude
of strong cold air advection, and thus placing the low level
baroclinic zone too far north. The more northerly solution
certainly can`t be discounted, however, and this bears close
watching over the next couple of days.
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As promised, pics. If you have and are signed in to imgur you can go fullscreen to see these at full rez. These are from our storm the other day, and as you can see the freezing rain had already compacted most of this down by time I got out there! It was beautiful and peaceful though. Hope you all enjoy them as much as I did taking them, minus getting soaked from the zr lol.

 

http://imgur.com/a/nCUrp

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As promised, pics. If you have and are signed in to imgur you can go fullscreen to see these at full rez. These are from our storm the other day, and as you can see the freezing rain had already compacted most of this down by time I got out there! It was beautiful and peaceful though. Hope you all enjoy them as much as I did taking them, minus getting soaked from the zr lol.

http://imgur.com/a/nCUrp

Very nice pictures!

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I'm hoping the cold air pushes a little faster than the models have it today. I'd hade for our last possible winter storm to be an ice or sleet mess down here. As of right now though I think my location has met climo for snow totals after doing a little rough adding. I'll have to wait for official amounts to compare but I think one more storm would make it a lock. Not bad considering how we started the winter off. Kind of sad that meteorological spring started today though.

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Thanks JoMo! Hopefully we can get one more round before the season ends, looks like to be zr and a sleet slop bag here though if it happens lol. Man this area gets a ton of sleet!!

We have our years and different trends. Seemed like from 1999-2009 it was mostly ice every year with a couple of snowy ones sprinkled in, then snow for 2 or three years and now we can't get away from the sleet garbage. Just part of living around here I guess.

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Going to be a tough call on precip amounts/type because this system is very dependent on a lot of things with a high bust potential. 

 

The 12z UKMET has a general 2-4" across much of the area with more to our northeast. 

 

12z Euro ensemble still varies a bit when it comes to our area, but it appears the best chance for frozen is along and SE of I-44 for accumulating frozen precip. The greatest chance/highest amounts will be over north central to northeast Arkansas and southeast Missouri.

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