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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2014-15 Discussion


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12z Euro suggests some snow showers/light snow/flurries from time to time with a couple of weak waves passing mostly to our west and south over the next few days..... Another NW flow type of wave on Wed night/Thurs may bring more of the same.

 

This run is bringing out a bit of a stronger system on Fri/Sat which may bring a bit heavier snow, especially in most of OK. This one wraps up a bit and brings a deformation looking zone across OK/AR/southern MO along and SE of I-44 with additional snow (could be a lot) on Sat Night into Sunday. 

 

And another weakish type system coming out on Monday (mostly MO/KS) this round.

 

All of this will change next run... lol

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Looks like the 00z NAM was still a narrow band around Fort Smith (I-40).  Not as impressive as the 18z run.  Also looks like two waves about 12-24 hours apart.  Still shows 3-6 inches or slightly heavier amounts.   Two of our three weekend mets at local TV blew it off into nothing more than flurries.  They may bust on this one.  We'll see what the GFS shows shortly.  

 

The storm out in Colorado is definitely strong.  My brother in Denver is expecting well over a foot.  

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As of this moment, NWS is calling for 2"-4" in my backyard, which would make me VERY happy.... But there is no margin for error. We get that accumulation from one wave sideswiping us to the north and the second doing so from the south. We could just as easily split the uprights and see nary a flake. Why is it always so darn difficult? LOL.

 

Edit: I probably should have looked at a radar before posting the above.  Wave 1 has already missed to the north.  Presumably, Wave 2 will commence missing us to the south tomorrow afternoon.  On the bright side, I only have to kill 9 or 10 more months of 100+ F temps before our next snow chance.  

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As far as the 'big storm' is concerned......The GGEM did look pretty good, and a few of the 12z Euro ensemble members do look a lot like the GGEM. The majority of the members are farther NW in KS though. 

 

I've been looking for one last big system to deliver us all one last nice snow before Spring. The weeklies have been shifting the mean trough to the west and north over time over to the western states, this means the cold air will be found over the west and north and the storm track will likely be to our west as we head into Spring. 

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As far as the 'big storm' is concerned......The GGEM did look pretty good, and a few of the 12z Euro ensemble members do look a lot like the GGEM. The majority of the members are farther NW in KS though. 

 

I've been looking for one last big system to deliver us all one last nice snow before Spring. The weeklies have been shifting the mean trough to the west and north over time over to the western states, this means the cold air will be found over the west and north and the storm track will likely be to our west as we head into Spring.

Had a few flurries out of this.. meanwhile just a few counties south get inches.. this has to be the worst spot to be in.

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00z Euro gives the OKC area a bunch of snow this Fri/Sat before everything shifts back NW into Kansas due to a very large positive tilt trough digging into the west. Probably get a mix of stuff as the trough kicks out on Monday as well. On this run, everyone in the area may get some amount of frozen precip.

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About a half an inch has fallen this morning in Edmond & North OKC.  Roads are pretty slick with it being the low 20's.  Another round this afternoon looks like it may drop another inch of snow before coming to an end mid-afternoon.

 

12Z GFS doesn't look very impressive with the late week Fri/Sat storm system JoMo mentioned, but details still need to be worked out on that one since we're still about 4 days out.

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Had a 20 percent chance of snow here this morning, it snowed fairly good for about 20 minutes! Got a dusting then the sun came out briefly and melted it that quick even at 22 degrees lol. So whats tulsa do, stick and advisory up and all things look to have ended. Regardless its up til 6pm. I tell you guys this has been one confusing, crazy, weird winter season! I really dont wish to see another like it but we all know that probly wont happen haha. It's like the winter that no one has absolutely no clue on even with short term forecasts!!!

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12z Euro still has the snow for OK on Friday, probably flurries or light snow for our area. Then it warms up as the cold lifts NW into Kansas along with the frozen precip... maybe a mix or something when the trough moves through Monday night.

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Tulsa (probably the city proper and the southern burbs), this band is coming your way!  The radar doesn't do it justice.  I am in downtown OKC, and we have been getting pasted for nearly 3 hours.  I am just eyeballing, but I bet we've been getting an inch per hour since well before lunch.  Up to that point, we'd had a dusting that had melted on the all the streets.  Now, everything (including the major thoroughfare I can see from my office window) is covered by at least 2" of snow... and maybe 3" or 4".  It has lightened up a bit in the past few minutes, but it is still coming down steady and the radar looks decent for at least another hour or two.  Evening rush looks to be a disaster.  I just read I-35 has been closed just north of OKC due to numerous accidents.          

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Tulsa (probably the city proper and the southern burbs), this band is coming your way!  The radar doesn't do it justice.  I am in downtown OKC, and we have been getting pasted for nearly 3 hours.  I am just eyeballing, but I bet we've been getting an inch per hour since well before lunch.  Up to that point, we'd had a dusting that had melted on the all the streets.  Now, everything (including the major thoroughfare I can see from my office window) is covered by at least 2" of snow... and maybe 3" or 4".  It has lightened up a bit in the past few minutes, but it is still coming down steady and the radar looks decent for at least another hour or two.  Evening rush looks to be a disaster.  I just read I-35 has been closed just north of OKC due to numerous accidents.          

 

Yep, 20 degrees out and just had a heavy band come through the center of the city.  Roads are a mess.  Probably up to around 2" now, with another inch possible before sunset.  Definitely more today than I had expected and what the models were showing yesterday.

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