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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2014-15 Discussion


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So whats up with this weekends storm ? Does the Joplin and surrounding areas look more like an icestorm here  JoMo ?? or do we get warmer and get rain and wash some of this crud away this weekend ...

Although the GFS and Euro are a bit warmer, the 18z NAM is still colder with temps. I think we will probably have a chance of freezing drizzle, and then at some point, temps will either warm to above freezing, or they will hang around freezing. So we will either end up with rain, or freezing rain depending on if temps recover or not, and it looks like we will be close to the line. Luckily, it should be light either way.  The 12z Euro had heavy rain in NW AR and NE OK with temps around 35-40. 

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Although the GFS and Euro are a bit warmer, the 18z NAM is still colder with temps. I think we will probably have a chance of freezing drizzle, and then at some point, temps will either warm to above freezing, or they will hang around freezing. So we will either end up with rain, or freezing rain depending on if temps recover or not, and it looks like we will be close to the line. Luckily, it should be light either way.  The 12z Euro had heavy rain in NW AR and NE OK with temps around 35-40. 

Wow thats a close call! The euro is the model that's been handling things fairly well far out isn't it?

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I have very little confidence in anything at this point... everything seems pretty all over the board with placement and timing. The models seem more erroneous than usual this season. Is it just me?

Well, it's no secret that the GFS has been pure sh-t as far as accuracy goes this year. The Euro somehow achieves a higher grade this winter than it ever has (I don't really see how) and we're all usually confused until it is actually the day of whatever event we have been tracking for a week. Lol. So if you like surprises this has been the winter for you! Haha!

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12z GGEM is still giving you folks down south some snow or frozen precip over the next 4-5 days. OKC area is marked as about 7-9" with the first system. Looks like NW Arkansas gets 2-5" with more to the south.

 

There's also another system next week, this is the snow map from both events:

 

ggemsnow12z.png

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12z GGEM is still giving you folks down south some snow or frozen precip over the next 4-5 days. OKC area is marked as about 7-9" with the first system. Looks like NW Arkansas gets 2-5" with more to the south.

 

There's also another system next week, this is the snow map from both events:

 

ggemsnow12z.png

Thinking some light snow showers might be possible sunday or monday. But not much. Later in the week is quite uncertian.

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12z Euro says no big deal to speak of, maybe an inch or two at most for southern OK with the first system. Looks like some light snow showers possible Thurs and then probably more snow at some point after that.  Lots of energy floating around though so probably more changes.

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OUN has issued a special weather statement that seems to be slightly more bullish on measurable snow Saturday night into Monday for its forecast area.  The closest watches are still way up in the OK panhandle and/or way down in Central North Texas, but sometimes you gotta take baby steps.  LOL.    

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12z GGEM is still giving you folks down south some snow or frozen precip over the next 4-5 days. OKC area is marked as about 7-9" with the first system. Looks like NW Arkansas gets 2-5" with more to the south.

 

There's also another system next week, this is the snow map from both events:

 

 

Hey Kansas and KC people, this is the best looking 192-hr snowfall total for a long time in KS and Colorado

 

2015_02_20_18z_GFS_snow_total_192a.png

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00z Euro brought a little more snow back for southern OK into central Arkansas on Monday, a small bump northward and OKC would be getting some nice amounts.

 

Edit: In other news, it's 32 and thundering and Springfield put me back under a winter weather advisory a couple hours ago after cancelling it.

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What a horrible thing to say... storm chasers everywhere are shaking their head. :P

Haha. I understand. I've just had too many family members in harm's way in recent years to share their enthusiasm. Maybe in years to come I will grow more interested again.

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What a crazy night last night here in Monett. Thunderstorms with freezing rain. Heavy sleet that sometimes mixed with hail. Hoping that it warms up today enough so that some of this junk can melt so I can get to Oklahoma this evening. Then it can bring on whatever it wants. 

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What a crazy night last night here in Monett. Thunderstorms with freezing rain. Heavy sleet that sometimes mixed with hail. Hoping that it warms up today enough so that some of this junk can melt so I can get to Oklahoma this evening. Then it can bring on whatever it wants. 

 

That's real annoying when you have north facing windows. Woke up to a sleet storm. 

 

12z NAM is still mostly south with the next couple of weak waves.

 

namconus_asnow_scus_29.png

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