The Waterboy Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Maybe our friend NW Shift pays us a visit on the next few runs and the Sunday/Morning energy moves into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 So whats up with this weekends storm ? Does the Joplin and surrounding areas look more like an icestorm here JoMo ?? or do we get warmer and get rain and wash some of this crud away this weekend ... Although the GFS and Euro are a bit warmer, the 18z NAM is still colder with temps. I think we will probably have a chance of freezing drizzle, and then at some point, temps will either warm to above freezing, or they will hang around freezing. So we will either end up with rain, or freezing rain depending on if temps recover or not, and it looks like we will be close to the line. Luckily, it should be light either way. The 12z Euro had heavy rain in NW AR and NE OK with temps around 35-40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Although the GFS and Euro are a bit warmer, the 18z NAM is still colder with temps. I think we will probably have a chance of freezing drizzle, and then at some point, temps will either warm to above freezing, or they will hang around freezing. So we will either end up with rain, or freezing rain depending on if temps recover or not, and it looks like we will be close to the line. Luckily, it should be light either way. The 12z Euro had heavy rain in NW AR and NE OK with temps around 35-40. Wow thats a close call! The euro is the model that's been handling things fairly well far out isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I don't think it is, it's currently dead in the water. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I have very little confidence in anything at this point... everything seems pretty all over the board with placement and timing. The models seem more erroneous than usual this season. Is it just me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 18z GFS is a little more robust and further north with snow for Sunday/Monday's wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I have very little confidence in anything at this point... everything seems pretty all over the board with placement and timing. The models seem more erroneous than usual this season. Is it just me? Well, it's no secret that the GFS has been pure sh-t as far as accuracy goes this year. The Euro somehow achieves a higher grade this winter than it ever has (I don't really see how) and we're all usually confused until it is actually the day of whatever event we have been tracking for a week. Lol. So if you like surprises this has been the winter for you! Haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12z GGEM is still giving you folks down south some snow or frozen precip over the next 4-5 days. OKC area is marked as about 7-9" with the first system. Looks like NW Arkansas gets 2-5" with more to the south. There's also another system next week, this is the snow map from both events: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12z GGEM is still giving you folks down south some snow or frozen precip over the next 4-5 days. OKC area is marked as about 7-9" with the first system. Looks like NW Arkansas gets 2-5" with more to the south. There's also another system next week, this is the snow map from both events: Thinking some light snow showers might be possible sunday or monday. But not much. Later in the week is quite uncertian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12z Euro says no big deal to speak of, maybe an inch or two at most for southern OK with the first system. Looks like some light snow showers possible Thurs and then probably more snow at some point after that. Lots of energy floating around though so probably more changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Funny how we get possibilities this winter to be completely lost when the time frame comes for things to happen, just how it is this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 OUN has issued a special weather statement that seems to be slightly more bullish on measurable snow Saturday night into Monday for its forecast area. The closest watches are still way up in the OK panhandle and/or way down in Central North Texas, but sometimes you gotta take baby steps. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Dipped back down to 32 or so here now. Thunder freezing rain and sleet to the east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 12z GGEM is still giving you folks down south some snow or frozen precip over the next 4-5 days. OKC area is marked as about 7-9" with the first system. Looks like NW Arkansas gets 2-5" with more to the south. There's also another system next week, this is the snow map from both events: Hey Kansas and KC people, this is the best looking 192-hr snowfall total for a long time in KS and Colorado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 00z GFS looks like a fun time for the Plains over the next 2 weeks or so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 00z GFS looks like a fun time for the Plains over the next 2 weeks or so.... Indeed quite active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 00z GFS looks like a fun time for the Plains over the next 2 weeks or so.... Sure does. Maybe we're going to make up for lost time. Plenty cold too, cold enough that even deep south Texas may get in on the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I mean, this looks fun..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Wow. Looks great unless you live between I-40 and I-44. Lol. I guess I will just enjoy my flurries. :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 00z Euro brought a little more snow back for southern OK into central Arkansas on Monday, a small bump northward and OKC would be getting some nice amounts. Edit: In other news, it's 32 and thundering and Springfield put me back under a winter weather advisory a couple hours ago after cancelling it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Either way it goes, looks like it's going to be one of the coolest late February periods I can remember for a long time. Anything to slow down spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Either way it goes, looks like it's going to be one of the coolest late February periods I can remember for a long time. Anything to slow down spring. What a horrible thing to say... storm chasers everywhere are shaking their head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 00z Euro is just nutty as well. Going to be fun watching all of these chances of snow probably end up evaporating, but it does make some interesting weather porn maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 What a horrible thing to say... storm chasers everywhere are shaking their head. Haha. I understand. I've just had too many family members in harm's way in recent years to share their enthusiasm. Maybe in years to come I will grow more interested again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 What a crazy night last night here in Monett. Thunderstorms with freezing rain. Heavy sleet that sometimes mixed with hail. Hoping that it warms up today enough so that some of this junk can melt so I can get to Oklahoma this evening. Then it can bring on whatever it wants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 What a crazy night last night here in Monett. Thunderstorms with freezing rain. Heavy sleet that sometimes mixed with hail. Hoping that it warms up today enough so that some of this junk can melt so I can get to Oklahoma this evening. Then it can bring on whatever it wants. That's real annoying when you have north facing windows. Woke up to a sleet storm. 12z NAM is still mostly south with the next couple of weak waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 That's real annoying when you have north facing windows. Woke up to a sleet storm. 12z NAM is still mostly south with the next couple of weak waves. I'll enjoy the stray flurries that make it up this way.. count them if I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Hey look everyone, more donut holes! DONUTS for all!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 12z GFS looks slightly better further north. Still not much but maybe a dusting to an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Which model handled this last wave the best? I wasn't following much after yesterday morning because of work and a trip, but it seems the NAM sniffed out the colder temps earliest and stuck with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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