Wx 24/7 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 SGF seems to have temps that are borderline though... may wind up being a cold rain, depending on when it falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 Parallel GFS back to weenie dreamland for my neighborhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Parallel GFS back to weenie dreamland for my neighborhood. This has always looked like a Southern Plains/Ozarks event to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 This has always looked like a Southern Plains/Ozarks event to me. Me too. It's what I call a 'classic' Oklahoma snowstorm. I'm trying to be as objective as possible though while the snow fanatic in me is freaking out. Haha. Euro ensembles+deterministic still holding with 2-4 inches at Fayetteville, AR. All members but 2 or 3 showing some snow with a good chunk showing what looked to be just into the 3 inch range. JoMo can correct me if I'm wrong, I'm a little new using the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Wild man, That's pretty awesome!!! I just pulled it up. All of NW AR gets hammered. The "old" GFS (or whatever we're calling it now) still isn't impressive at all. I was reading in another sub forum that even though the Parallel is new it has performed better so far than the regular GFS. There wasn't any specific data to back it up though. Maybe someone else has some insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 Wild man, That's pretty awesome!!! I just pulled it up. All of NW AR gets hammered. The "old" GFS (or whatever we're calling it now) still isn't impressive at all. I was reading in another sub forum that even though the Parallel is new it has performed better so far than the regular GFS. There wasn't any specific data to back it up though. Maybe someone else has some insight. Yeah. Pretty crazy stuff there. I'm in the edge of the little purple glob by Fayetteville. I love it. My thoughts are geared more towards maybe a combo of having a better handle on the cold air mass now in place (deeper cold possibly?) And the increase in moisture return that was hinted last night. I could be totally wrong though. I know the temperature hasn't moved a bit here yet since 7 am and I was supposed to make it to around 39 today fwiw. Been stuck at 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Wow this cold has preformed as much as I wanted so far 11:47 ish last night the winds went from calm to 28 mph gusting to 40. Temp droped from 61 to 49 in one hour has been droping.. 36 right now.. maybe 39 40 today. The winds are still quite gusty! I wonder how fast this is going to moderate? Weekend is still in question as far I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 That was a nice parallel run. I didn't look over the details but it appears colder (accumulation map shows no sleet or rain or freezing rain, and all snow) and appears as though the system wasn't as squashed. Canadian also had a bit more precip but was farther north into MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 I think by the PGFS everybody wins. :-) Has temps 40-44 degrees below normal over the 'deep snow' in E OK and NWA next Tuesday. This is unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 Today is the anniversary of the Great Blue Norther of 11-11-1911. How fitting right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I think by the PGFS everybody wins. :-) Has temps 40-44 degrees below normal over the 'deep snow' in E OK and NWA next Tuesday. This is unreal. That would be sweet. But cilmo says no way. And that makes me question all of this going on right now. Temps right now are so much below climo and its amazing in its own right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 That would be sweet. But climo says no way. And that makes me question all of this going on right now. Temps right now are so much below climo and its amazing in its own right. I agree. It would be awesome to see it all work out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 12z Euro is coming in wetter for the weekend system. Surface temps will be close in AR and NE OK. 850 MB freezing temps will be close as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Haven't been in model land for awhile. Can somebody link me to the new GFS parallel model? Tks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Haven't been in model land for awhile. Can somebody link me to the new GFS parallel model? Tks. http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 Haven't been in model land for awhile. Can somebody link me to the new GFS parallel model? Tks. I like the one at tropical tidbits pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 12z Euro is coming in wetter for the weekend system. Surface temps will be close in AR and NE OK. 850 MB freezing temps will be close as well. Do you get maps with QPF amounts? Time of day may come into play some as well. We need the system to roll in around dark Saturday evening. Would make for some exciting football in Fayetteville when Arkansas plays LSU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/Tks Jo from MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Do you get maps with QPF amounts? Time of day may come into play some as well. We need the system to roll in around dark Saturday evening. Would make for some exciting football in Fayetteville when Arkansas plays LSU. Yes I do, but it's really close down in your neck of the woods on temps, both at 850 and surface. Overall the 'snow' map (which is just the QPF at 32 degrees or below) is showing 2-5" generally, with the most being in extreme SE KS, SW MO, NE OK and NW AR. And yeah i think time of day will play a role, right now it's coming in on Saturday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Ok looking at the 12z ensembles for the weekend system.... About 27 or so... have 2" or more of 'snowfall' (although some others have spots around 2") Control run has shifted north into central KS to NW MO as having the most, and another stripe across N Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Haven't been in model land for awhile. Can somebody link me to the new GFS parallel model? Tks. Well hello there sir. Saw your son the other day. Hope he told you hello from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 The difference between the GFS models is night and day. Wow! Really hope we are seeing the fruits of the GFS improvement in regards to this weekend system on the parallel GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KBPPradmet11 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 The 18z GFS may make several of you happy in regards to this weekend's precip potential. But then again it's one run and the 18z GFS. Not checked the Parallel yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 The 18z GFS may make several of you happy in regards to this weekend's precip potential. But then again it's one run and the 18z GFS. Not checked the Parallel yet. I'd take it. Hoping it's a trend towards bigger and better from where it's at. Parallel still looks great and consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 18z PGFS. Going to have to watch NW AR (especially southern parts) for sleet and freezing rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I think I like the new GFS.... Good fantasy storm production! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I think I like the new GFS.... Good fantasy storm production! Well at least we remain in an active pattern if we are to take it at face value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 WOW @ the Fantasy Thanksgiving Storm!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 And just because it's fun to look at ....18Z PGFS...SMH...is this REALLY November!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 WOW @ the Fantasy Thanksgiving Storm!! Your right about one thing,,its a fantasy. Not likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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