Wx 24/7 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 This weekend looks like a mess. I can tell one thing from the examination of the models this morning... they are warm too warm initially on temps. Will be interesting if that plays a factor. This shallow arctic air can be hard to break down. All in all, I am little worried about ice potential. Edit: 12z GFS and Canadian have the low too far north. Dig BABY!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Yeah, the 12z GFS gives mostly rain (except for at the start) to this area (snow farther north) on the weekend system. The storm at the end of the month is crazy, and the 00z Euro had that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Yeah, the 12z GFS gives mostly rain (except for at the start) to this area (snow farther north) on the weekend system. The storm at the end of the month is crazy, and the 00z Euro had that as well. If this thing shifts as far north as the last one we may have thunderstorms. ha ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Yeah, the 12z GGEM is more wrapped up and farther north. Probably would be thunderstorms. GGEM also has the big system at the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 12z Euro is north as well. Central KS to NW MO looks to get hit with wintry weather. Our area may get heavy rain (possible severe weather?) with the warm front across the area. The Euro is lighter with the system at the end of the month but it looks like mostly snow for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 12z Euro is north as well. Central KS to NW MO looks to get hit with wintry weather. Our area may get heavy rain (possible severe weather?) with the warm front across the area. The Euro is lighter with the system at the end of the month but it looks like mostly snow for everyone. Was reading earlier on FB from a fairly knowledgable met that he believes the warmth is modeled to push in too quickly. Says not to buy into a huge northern shift yet... that the pattern in these types of situations is a northern shift before it settles somewhat further back south. FWIW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 And there goes Little Rock... pulling out a Winter Storm Watch for much of Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Was reading earlier on FB from a fairly knowledgable met that he believes the warmth is modeled to push in too quickly. Says not to buy into a huge northern shift yet... that the pattern in these types of situations is a northern shift before it settles somewhat further back south. FWIW... Yeah, I don't think the warm front will end up that far north. The 12z Euro with the snow/frozen on the NW side was basically in the same spot as last night, just more precip. The 12z Euro ensemble members are becoming clustered in the same location. Hoping for a south trend though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 And there goes Little Rock... pulling out a Winter Storm Watch for much of Arkansas. I noticed that and was surprised they did that to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It's going to be quite a nasty mess down there in Arkansas and in southern MO on Thurs night/Friday. The cold air gets trapped in those valleys and is hard to move. 18z NAM suggest a prolonged light ice storm for areas mostly just east of our area with the predominate precip type being freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It's going to be quite a nasty mess down there in Arkansas and in southern MO on Thurs night/Friday. The cold air gets trapped in those valleys and is hard to move. 18z NAM suggest a prolonged light ice storm for areas mostly just east of our area with the predominate precip type being freezing rain. Yeah, I was noticing that. It doesn't warm above freezing here until afternoon on Friday (if taken at face value). Cold is getting trapped, too, in Arkansas. Precip amounts will be light...thank goodness...only .10" or less as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 As of right now tulsa says NO for anything major on thursday evening into friday morning. They also say the storm on the weekend is pretty much a no go, only light snow on the backside lol. Said the heavier precip ends before the cold front arrives, sounds to be very stormy on saturday though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The 18z GFS snowfall map is just silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The 18z GFS snowfall map is just silly. Yes, yes it is.... (this is from the end of the month storm primarily) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 ^^^^ bwahahahahaha!!!! Riiiiiight...Oklahoma schools would be out for 2 weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Yes, yes it is.... (this is from the end of the month storm primarily) Hahaha. I needed a good laugh today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 lmao imagine if that were to happen in southern arkansas and louisiana haha....shut it down! Thats called a clown map for sure lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I don't remember where to look for it at but does anybody know how long the MJO is supposed to stay in phase 8 or enter any other southern stream dominant phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I don't remember where to look for it at but does anybody know how long the MJO is supposed to stay in phase 8 or enter any other southern stream dominant phase? I don't think it is, it's currently dead in the water. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Pretty big changes on the 12z GFS today. Strange... very strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Its lost our storm. Not surprised there at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Its lost our storm. Not surprised there at all Which one? The late month one? It shears that system out. The GGEM still has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Pretty big changes on the 12z GFS today. Strange... very strange. It consolidates the storm a little bit for later this weekend, giving central OK about 1-2" of snow, which is more than it was showing before. It just seems like the "look" is there for something bigger on Sunday or Monday, and it wouldn't take much to get a bigger system in here. I wouldn't worry much about the late month system yet, still pretty far out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 JoMo, Why did you say it's very strange? Is that good or bad? I saw that the storm late next week gets sheared out. I'm guessing it will be back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Which one? The late month one? It shears that system out. The GGEM still has it. Yea this run of the GFS shears it out. But we are so far out anyway. I didn't see another storm ..but I didn't glance beyond that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 JoMo, Why did you say it's very strange? Is that good or bad? I saw that the storm late next week gets sheared out. I'm guessing it will be back. I bet it comes back soon. Lol. GGEM Still has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 It's just different from recent runs. And in the shorter term, the NAM keeps getting a bit colder every run. Well, bring on the Euro and let's sort this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z Euro has that southern piece ejecting out, but it looks to be too far south for those OKC folks (although you may get some lighter stuff), hits southern OK and N TX pretty good though. Any north trend would be good for you all. 12z Euro is also dampening out the wave at the end of the month like the GFS although there is some precip associated with it.... but now there's another system coming out a day later which gives more snow to OK and AR. Much of OK except the NE corner, and western and central Arkansas cash in this run. Tune in next time for another episode of....As the Models Change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z Euro has that southern piece ejecting out, but it looks to be too far south for those OKC folks (although you may get some lighter stuff), hits southern OK and N TX pretty good though. Any north trend would be good for you all. 12z Euro is also dampening out the wave at the end of the month like the GFS although there is some precip associated with it.... but now there's another system coming out a day later which gives more snow to OK and AR. Much of OK except the NE corner, and western and central Arkansas cash in this run. Tune in next time for another episode of....As the Models Change! Well I guess I'll keep checking those dummy models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusfront Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 So whats up with this weekends storm ? Does the Joplin and surrounding areas look more like an icestorm here JoMo ?? or do we get warmer and get rain and wash some of this crud away this weekend ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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