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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2014-15 Discussion


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This weekend looks like a mess. I can tell one thing from the examination of the models this morning... they are warm too warm initially on temps. Will be interesting if that plays a factor. This shallow arctic air can be hard to break down. All in all, I am little worried about ice potential.

 

Edit: 12z GFS and Canadian have the low too far north. Dig BABY!!!

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Yeah, the 12z GFS gives mostly rain (except for at the start) to this area (snow farther north) on the weekend system. The storm at the end of the month is crazy, and the 00z Euro had that as well. 

If this thing shifts as far north as the last one we may have thunderstorms. ha ha

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12z Euro is north as well. Central KS to NW MO looks to get hit with wintry weather. Our area may get heavy rain (possible severe weather?) with the warm front across the area. The Euro is lighter with the system at the end of the month but it looks like mostly snow for everyone. 

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12z Euro is north as well. Central KS to NW MO looks to get hit with wintry weather. Our area may get heavy rain (possible severe weather?) with the warm front across the area. The Euro is lighter with the system at the end of the month but it looks like mostly snow for everyone. 

 

Was reading earlier on FB from a fairly knowledgable met that he believes the warmth is modeled to push in too quickly. Says not to buy into a huge northern shift yet... that the pattern in these types of situations is a northern shift before it settles somewhat further back south. FWIW... 

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Was reading earlier on FB from a fairly knowledgable met that he believes the warmth is modeled to push in too quickly. Says not to buy into a huge northern shift yet... that the pattern in these types of situations is a northern shift before it settles somewhat further back south. FWIW... 

 

Yeah, I don't think the warm front will end up that far north. The 12z Euro with the snow/frozen on the NW side was basically in the same spot as last night, just more precip. The 12z Euro ensemble members are becoming clustered in the same location. Hoping for a south trend though.

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It's going to be quite a nasty mess down there in Arkansas and in southern MO on Thurs night/Friday. The cold air gets trapped in those valleys and is hard to move. 18z NAM suggest a prolonged light ice storm for areas mostly just east of our area with the predominate precip type being freezing rain.

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It's going to be quite a nasty mess down there in Arkansas and in southern MO on Thurs night/Friday. The cold air gets trapped in those valleys and is hard to move. 18z NAM suggest a prolonged light ice storm for areas mostly just east of our area with the predominate precip type being freezing rain.

Yeah, I was noticing that. It doesn't warm above freezing here until afternoon on Friday (if taken at face value). Cold is getting trapped, too, in Arkansas. Precip amounts will be light...thank goodness...only .10" or less as of now. 

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Pretty big changes on the 12z GFS today. Strange... very strange.

 

It consolidates the storm a little bit for later this weekend, giving central OK about 1-2" of snow, which is more than it was showing before.  It just seems like the "look" is there for something bigger on Sunday or Monday, and it wouldn't take much to get a bigger system in here.

 

I wouldn't worry much about the late month system yet, still pretty far out there.

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12z Euro has that southern piece ejecting out, but it looks to be too far south for those OKC folks (although you may get some lighter stuff), hits southern OK and N TX pretty good though. Any north trend would be good for you all.

 

12z Euro is also dampening out the wave at the end of the month like the GFS although there is some precip associated with it.... but now there's another system coming out a day later which gives more snow to OK and AR.

 

Much of OK except the NE corner, and western and central Arkansas cash in this run.  

 

Tune in next time for another episode of....As the Models Change!

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12z Euro has that southern piece ejecting out, but it looks to be too far south for those OKC folks (although you may get some lighter stuff), hits southern OK and N TX pretty good though. Any north trend would be good for you all.

 

12z Euro is also dampening out the wave at the end of the month like the GFS although there is some precip associated with it.... but now there's another system coming out a day later which gives more snow to OK and AR.

 

Much of OK except the NE corner, and western and central Arkansas cash in this run.  

 

Tune in next time for another episode of....As the Models Change!

Well I guess I'll keep checking those dummy models.

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