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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2014-15 Discussion


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Whoa... Tulsa has 8-13" in the grids in far NE OK now.... Springfield has 5-8" in the same area.

 

Edit: Trying it's hardest to switch to just snow here now.

 

There is definitely sufficient liquid equivalent in the convective band that is heading for NE OK (and then your way) to give somebody a foot of snow.  The open question, of course, is the sleet.  We've been seeing heavy precip with thunder and lightning for a couple of hours now.  We continue to bounce around between varying ratios of sleet to snow... we are mostly sleet at the moment... but, if somebody in the bullseye of this band can also squeeze out mostly snow from it, that snow is going to pile up FAST.    

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There is definitely sufficient liquid equivalent in the convective band that is heading for NE OK (and then your way) to give somebody a foot of snow. The open question, of course, is the sleet. We've been seeing heavy precip with thunder and lightning for a couple of hours now. We continue to bounce around between varying ratios of sleet to snow... we are mostly sleet at the moment... but, if somebody in the bullseye of this band can also squeeze out mostly snow from it, that snow is going to pile up FAST.

Agree with this wholeheartedly. That's a nice slug of moisture headed to NE OK/SW MO.

I think the gap in coverage should fill in over EC OK and WC AR, lighter totals obviously.

Still getting moderate sleet here. I'd guess I've seen about 6 or 7 lightning strikes tonight. After how this winter has gone I'll take it.

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I keep telling myself I should be staying up for something, but my gut says go to bed your not going to miss much lol. NWS update at 11:30 said 6-10" of sleet and snow lol. Im sorry I dont see that happening unless we can get something going and its fairly heavy for awhile.

 

  • Overnight Periods of snow and sleet. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 21. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.
  • Washington's Birthday Snow likely, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 29. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
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I keep telling myself I should be staying up for something, but my gut says go to bed your not going to miss much lol. NWS update at 11:30 said 6-10" of sleet and snow lol. Im sorry I dont see that happening unless we can get something going and its fairly heavy for awhile.

  • Overnight Periods of snow and sleet. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 21. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.
  • Washington's Birthday Snow likely, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 29. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Southern part of the storm looks like garbage now. Was going to watch it for awhile too. Don't think it's worth losing any more sleep over. Just looks like we got screwed again. Hope everyone enjoys their snow.

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Southern part of the storm looks like garbage now. Was going to watch it for awhile too. Don't think it's worth losing any more sleep over. Just looks like we got screwed again. Hope everyone enjoys their snow.

Yea I really think this has the potential to bust really really bad here once again, that will be the 5th time this winter lol. Im just disappointed at how close everything is tonight....then these mini donut holes that just keep popping up right over my area lmao. Im glad some others are getting to enjoy stuff though, we all deserve something

 

Send some of that snow down my way jomo lol

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Had a bout of moderate snow here early before switching back to light. 

 

Looks like another system next week that needs watched, and there isn't much model agreement on what to do with it yet. 

I noticed multiple things mentioned for this upcoming week towards the end of it, local news also hinted a low chance on tuesday morning of snow lol.

 

Sleeting here again but I notice a really big donut hole getting ready to plop on in, its kinda wobbling its way up here. Man what keeps making these lil mini dry slots jomo or is it too complicated to explain? Everytime I think its going to fill in another pops over us here lol. And man the snow/sleet line has inched its way down to springdale now, this thing is crazy to follow on radar/satelite whatever it is im looking at on intellicast.

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Had a bout of moderate snow here early before switching back to light.

Looks like another system next week that needs watched, and there isn't much model agreement on what to do with it yet.

I agree on the storm next week into next weekend, looks like it could be worth looking into. It also looks like it is a very slow mover. Maybe a big snow producer?

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Light snow here for the last 1 1/2 hrs .  When the snow began it looked like we were going to really get it .  With sleet our total here so far is about 1 1/2 inches ... if the current snow stays at the rate it is now we should total out at 2 - 3 " by the time it quits .  But I have a question , with most all of us reporting light snow to none at all then where is all the good stuff ? I am hoping that that storm is moving slower than projected with the best yet to come . I hope I hope..................

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Had some heavier snow for a bit, but it's calmed back down now. Assuming nothing unexpected happens, I'll probably end up with 3-4" at most. 

 

Not sure about the next system(s) coming up as they are way out there and the models did a pretty terrible job with this one, lol

 

The Euro probably did the best from the farthest out. The NAM did very well once it was at a really close range. The GFS was pretty bad. The RGEM/GGEM ended up too wet and too far north. Pretty sure all of them got the temp profile wrong.

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Had some heavier snow for a bit, but it's calmed back down now. Assuming nothing unexpected happens, I'll probably end up with 3-4" at most. 

 

Not sure about the next system(s) coming up as they are way out there and the models did a pretty terrible job with this one, lol

 

The Euro probably did the best from the farthest out. The NAM did very well once it was at a really close range. The GFS was pretty bad. The RGEM/GGEM ended up too wet and too far north. Pretty sure all of them got the temp profile wrong.

Wow thats going to be a low end bust up there, werent you supposed to get between 8-12" give or take? I said from the getgo I didnt think anything would happen in fayetteville here, NOPE nothing impressive yet lol. We have lil tiny white pockets of sleet here and there on grassy areas and a thin thin layer of ice from earlier zr. And I dont know what the hell tulsa was thinking at 11:30 by uppin totals to 6-10" for here, thats a joke I think haha.

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Had some heavier snow for a bit, but it's calmed back down now. Assuming nothing unexpected happens, I'll probably end up with 3-4" at most. 

 

Not sure about the next system(s) coming up as they are way out there and the models did a pretty terrible job with this one, lol

 

The Euro probably did the best from the farthest out. The NAM did very well once it was at a really close range. The GFS was pretty bad. The RGEM/GGEM ended up too wet and too far north. Pretty sure all of them got the temp profile wrong.

.  So if the next front is an snow producer I hope that it stays cold enough that the current snow is still on the ground until it arrives .  I am going to stick this one out 'til the fat lady sings .  Expectation is better than the actual event seems to be in order tonight . 

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