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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2014-15 Discussion


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Maybe the crappy sleet would be here, Ive seen more sleet here than I have anywhere else....its like this place is sleet capital of the world lol. I didnt have that feeling about this storm from the getgo, wouldnt be shocked if it turned out to be a trace of something again haha.

And man it was supposed to be 19 tonight, its still just shy of 32 here....that makes me nervous also. The cold front has already pushed through hasnt it?

I think I'm probably going to get all varieties of the winter precip now where I was just looking at snow yesterday also. My thoughts are now leaning towards giving a decent amount of the qpf to freezing rain and sleet for anyone south of US 412. It wouldn't surprise me to see Tulsa show that in tomorrow's update. It's just becoming another disappointing storm. I still think Arkansas stands a good chance of getting a damaging ice storm and copious amounts of snowfall. That's just my thoughts though.

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They did bite hard didn't they ? I wonder if this is ringing true for us on the sgf thoughts or if it might back down a bit in future runs. any way JoMo are we getting our butts handed to us on this, here in KJLN ?? 

 

Well, it's probably either going to sleet or snow. Any sleet will cut down on snow accumulations. I'm hoping for big snows, but well aware that we could get the sleet monster. 

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All of the SW MO crew on here congrats and hope you get that big one tonite its been a long time coming. Of course it has to wait till I move out of town to happen lol.

I've lived in this area for the last 20 years and the 20 before that in Fort Smith. Here's what I can tell you that I remember historically. Washington and Benton Co are typically the dividing line from about the Bobby Hopper Tunnel north. I used to hate it when I was a kid that Fort Smith got stuck with the crap while it hit the jackpot up here.

We know that a 25-50 mile fluctuation between where the low tracks will have a huge impact on what we see. I have no idea if we'll see a ton of sleet or more snow but I'm more optimistic than usual. It's not a bad trend for us. If you are in Cave Springs we're only about 5 miles apart from each other.

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12z NAM is a bit farther west compared to it's 06z run and the snow map looks a bit heavier. It's also picking out a mesoscale band of snow traveling up I-44 from NE OK into SW MO before it weakens. 

Yes, it is very juicy. I would also be concerned in WC through C AR. The transition zone could feature some pretty impressive freezing rain totals. 

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I've lived in this area for the last 20 years and the 20 before that in Fort Smith. Here's what I can tell you that I remember historically. Washington and Benton Co are typically the dividing line from about the Bobby Hopper Tunnel north. I used to hate it when I was a kid that Fort Smith got stuck with the crap while it hit the jackpot up here.

We know that a 25-50 mile fluctuation between where the low tracks will have a huge impact on what we see. I have no idea if we'll see a ton of sleet or more snow but I'm more optimistic than usual. It's not a bad trend for us. If you are in Cave Springs we're only about 5 miles apart from each other.

Yah I'm hoping for the best. Need a slight S'ward shift or some cooler upper air temps for us to get in on some good snows here. I live right in Cave Springs city limits so you and I can't be that far apart. I'm fairly optimistic this time as well.
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Looks like we are in the bullseye for snow here...for now .  Calling for

5" - 7" and possibly up to 12" :lmao:  which means we may get 2" but I'll take it .  Let er rip .  Hope we all get a white-out .

.....SEVERAL ADDITIONAL

BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO FORM. WHILE IT IS STILL NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR WHERE THESE BANDS WILL SET UP...THEY WILL BE MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. SNOWFALL RATES IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THESE BANDS OF
SNOW. SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...
BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS WILL
VARY CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE AREA. IN GENERAL...A WIDESPREAD 5 TO
7 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS POSSIBLE...WITH ACCUMULATIONS PERHAPS
APPROACHING 10 INCHES WHERE THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF SNOW SET UP.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING...MOVEMENT...AND STRENGTH OF THE
HEAVIEST BANDS OF SNOW...SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING
12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI. :snowing:
 

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4KM NAM... Congrats Monett...

 

A word of caution here though, this is straight 10:1 without factoring in the ratios, or any sleet that falls. This map is contaminated by sleet. Basically the area from NE OK across extreme northern AR and points north will probably end up being more snow and less sleet. Anything south of that line is sleet. 

 

hiresnow4km-1.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here you can see all the sleet:

 

hiresequiv.png

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SO looks like snow just to my north starting on the border and freezing rain a county just to my south and sloppy crappy sleet here lol. That looks about right huh, winter storm warning now lol. Amazing how little differences in mileage can be something to nothing. Tulsa says 0.1 of sleet then possibly 1-3" of snow. I will say this, the temps never dropped below 30 here last night and todays high of 31 was too low....its 38 almost right now outside. Congrats to you guys in missouri somewhere

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SO looks like snow just to my north starting on the border and freezing rain a county just to my south and sloppy crappy sleet here lol. That looks about right huh, winter storm warning now lol. Amazing how little differences in mileage can be something to nothing. Tulsa says 0.1 of sleet then possibly 1-3" of snow. I will say this, the temps never dropped below 30 here last night and todays high of 31 was too low....its 38 almost right now outside. Congrats to you guys in missouri somewhere

 

Surface trough giving you SE winds. It runs up from Texas to NE OK. It's going to drop south in time.

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The 12pm GFS / Nam /Euro plots will be the telling story...until then I will try to keep my excitement down . One more hour  :unsure:

 

Waiting on the Euro at noon, but I think you're good to go for accumulating snow. Not sure how much it will be though. 

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That is snow + sleet accumulation though, lol

 

Eventually as the system swings through, it will change to snow, but the question remains on how much is snow vs sleet. 

 

The 12z Euro actually had a couple of bands, one near the AR/MO border and another over me. The 12z NAM had the heavier band across the AR/MO border, the 12z RGEM was basically over me, with the 12z GFS  being the odd man out with the heavier band over in SE KS (although the GGEM was farther north, it had corrected back south some). Been watching the RAP, and it develops the heavier band right over me. 

 

I'm starting to get excited, lol

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