OKwx2K4 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Maybe the crappy sleet would be here, Ive seen more sleet here than I have anywhere else....its like this place is sleet capital of the world lol. I didnt have that feeling about this storm from the getgo, wouldnt be shocked if it turned out to be a trace of something again haha. And man it was supposed to be 19 tonight, its still just shy of 32 here....that makes me nervous also. The cold front has already pushed through hasnt it? I think I'm probably going to get all varieties of the winter precip now where I was just looking at snow yesterday also. My thoughts are now leaning towards giving a decent amount of the qpf to freezing rain and sleet for anyone south of US 412. It wouldn't surprise me to see Tulsa show that in tomorrow's update. It's just becoming another disappointing storm. I still think Arkansas stands a good chance of getting a damaging ice storm and copious amounts of snowfall. That's just my thoughts though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Somebody in SW MO looks like they are going to see a foot of snow. I would also be concerned in E OK/NW AR about an ice storm that is further north than initially progged. Just looking at the 00z data now... then will catch up on the 06z updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Well, Springfield bit hard with a Winter Storm Warning out. Several bands of heavy snow with 2+" per hour amounts, with a general 5-7" across MO with amounts exceeding 10-12" in the heavier bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusfront Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 They did bite hard didn't they ? I wonder if this is ringing true for us on the sgf thoughts or if it might back down a bit in future runs. any way JoMo are we getting our butts handed to us on this, here in KJLN ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 They did bite hard didn't they ? I wonder if this is ringing true for us on the sgf thoughts or if it might back down a bit in future runs. any way JoMo are we getting our butts handed to us on this, here in KJLN ?? Well, it's probably either going to sleet or snow. Any sleet will cut down on snow accumulations. I'm hoping for big snows, but well aware that we could get the sleet monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 All of the SW MO crew on here congrats and hope you get that big one tonite its been a long time coming. Of course it has to wait till I move out of town to happen lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 All of the SW MO crew on here congrats and hope you get that big one tonite its been a long time coming. Of course it has to wait till I move out of town to happen lol. I've lived in this area for the last 20 years and the 20 before that in Fort Smith. Here's what I can tell you that I remember historically. Washington and Benton Co are typically the dividing line from about the Bobby Hopper Tunnel north. I used to hate it when I was a kid that Fort Smith got stuck with the crap while it hit the jackpot up here. We know that a 25-50 mile fluctuation between where the low tracks will have a huge impact on what we see. I have no idea if we'll see a ton of sleet or more snow but I'm more optimistic than usual. It's not a bad trend for us. If you are in Cave Springs we're only about 5 miles apart from each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z NAM is a bit farther west compared to it's 06z run and the snow map looks a bit heavier. It's also picking out a mesoscale band of snow traveling up I-44 from NE OK into SW MO before it weakens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z NAM is a bit farther west compared to it's 06z run and the snow map looks a bit heavier. It's also picking out a mesoscale band of snow traveling up I-44 from NE OK into SW MO before it weakens. Yes, it is very juicy. I would also be concerned in WC through C AR. The transition zone could feature some pretty impressive freezing rain totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I've lived in this area for the last 20 years and the 20 before that in Fort Smith. Here's what I can tell you that I remember historically. Washington and Benton Co are typically the dividing line from about the Bobby Hopper Tunnel north. I used to hate it when I was a kid that Fort Smith got stuck with the crap while it hit the jackpot up here. We know that a 25-50 mile fluctuation between where the low tracks will have a huge impact on what we see. I have no idea if we'll see a ton of sleet or more snow but I'm more optimistic than usual. It's not a bad trend for us. If you are in Cave Springs we're only about 5 miles apart from each other. Yah I'm hoping for the best. Need a slight S'ward shift or some cooler upper air temps for us to get in on some good snows here. I live right in Cave Springs city limits so you and I can't be that far apart. I'm fairly optimistic this time as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looks like we are in the bullseye for snow here...for now . Calling for 5" - 7" and possibly up to 12" which means we may get 2" but I'll take it . Let er rip . Hope we all get a white-out . .....SEVERAL ADDITIONAL BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO FORM. WHILE IT IS STILL NOTENTIRELY CLEAR WHERE THESE BANDS WILL SET UP...THEY WILL BE MOSTLIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. SNOWFALL RATES INEXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THESE BANDS OFSNOW. SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING ANDAFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY.GIVEN THE EXPECTED BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS WILLVARY CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE AREA. IN GENERAL...A WIDESPREAD 5 TO7 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS POSSIBLE...WITH ACCUMULATIONS PERHAPSAPPROACHING 10 INCHES WHERE THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF SNOW SET UP.DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING...MOVEMENT...AND STRENGTH OF THEHEAVIEST BANDS OF SNOW...SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 4KM NAM... Congrats Monett... A word of caution here though, this is straight 10:1 without factoring in the ratios, or any sleet that falls. This map is contaminated by sleet. Basically the area from NE OK across extreme northern AR and points north will probably end up being more snow and less sleet. Anything south of that line is sleet. Here you can see all the sleet: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 No snow winter keeps going for me., could be another sleet storm I had in 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 A lot of questions on where the band sets up at..... 12z GFS is pointing more towards SE KS and the area where the NAM has it is much drier on the GFS. EDIT: 12z RGEM is splitting the difference between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 SO looks like snow just to my north starting on the border and freezing rain a county just to my south and sloppy crappy sleet here lol. That looks about right huh, winter storm warning now lol. Amazing how little differences in mileage can be something to nothing. Tulsa says 0.1 of sleet then possibly 1-3" of snow. I will say this, the temps never dropped below 30 here last night and todays high of 31 was too low....its 38 almost right now outside. Congrats to you guys in missouri somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The 12pm GFS / Nam /Euro plots will be the telling story...until then I will try to keep my excitement down . One more hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 SO looks like snow just to my north starting on the border and freezing rain a county just to my south and sloppy crappy sleet here lol. That looks about right huh, winter storm warning now lol. Amazing how little differences in mileage can be something to nothing. Tulsa says 0.1 of sleet then possibly 1-3" of snow. I will say this, the temps never dropped below 30 here last night and todays high of 31 was too low....its 38 almost right now outside. Congrats to you guys in missouri somewhere Surface trough giving you SE winds. It runs up from Texas to NE OK. It's going to drop south in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The 12pm GFS / Nam /Euro plots will be the telling story...until then I will try to keep my excitement down . One more hour Waiting on the Euro at noon, but I think you're good to go for accumulating snow. Not sure how much it will be though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The euro is going to have to have some good news or I may end up stuck on the OK/AR state line watching it snow 10 miles east or north of me while I get an inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Slight south movement on the 12z Euro but overall pretty steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looks like the actual NWS forecast just changed a bit for here, now says occasional freezing rain before 1am and occasional sleet or snow/sleet mix after 1am lol. I see the end of this upcoming week theres more slop in the forecast now as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 TSA tweeted a few minutes ago that they were in coordination with other offices to increase snow/ice totals... EDIT: NE OK and NW AR folks should like the update from TSA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Updated TSA graphic, a bit more falls after this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Updated TSA graphic, a bit more falls after this: Loving it! I was about to start giving up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Slight south movement on the 12z Euro but overall pretty steady. yes! , I'm ready and got my camera batteries charged . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That is snow + sleet accumulation though, lol Eventually as the system swings through, it will change to snow, but the question remains on how much is snow vs sleet. The 12z Euro actually had a couple of bands, one near the AR/MO border and another over me. The 12z NAM had the heavier band across the AR/MO border, the 12z RGEM was basically over me, with the 12z GFS being the odd man out with the heavier band over in SE KS (although the GGEM was farther north, it had corrected back south some). Been watching the RAP, and it develops the heavier band right over me. I'm starting to get excited, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I like the fact that most of the precip falls after the sun goes down. That should help some I would think. Only bad part is I can't stay up all night and watch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArkieOkie Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It'll be a nailbiter for us here. I'm pretty much right where the orange meets green, lol. My (selfish) hope is that it waits until 10 or later to start, but I know that's unlikely as it will probably be earlier. I just want to get home from work first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looks like im still on the line between almost nothing or where the heavier stuff falls, just to my north it appears about 10 miles or so lmao. Oh well maybe some miracle will happen and I'll get surprised lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Updated TSA graphic #2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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