ouamber Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 So let me get this straight, how in 24 hours did I just go from being too far north to being too far south? I don't ever remember a 300 mile shift 24 hours before the storm... Unbelievable!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Bleh, nothing now per that latest run jomo...for me anyhow lol. You guys in missouri are looking good on these latest runs! Someone better take some pics lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 So let me get this straight, how in 24 hours did I just go from being too far north to being too far south? I don't ever remember a 300 mile shift 24 hours before the storm... Unbelievable!! Crazy.. it might be warm enough for rain now. Better thn ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Hell we should all be use to these northern last minute tracks by now, but I guess after having a crap winter we are all disappointed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wait another 15-20 mins for the Euro... We'll get this straightened out! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wait another 15-20 mins for the Euro... We'll get this straightened out! lol Yea watch it be tracked another 50 miles north lol, hell your probly in the sweet spot for snow accums right now huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 00z Euro has shifted a bit more towards the NW when compared to it's 12z run. Amounts have increased as well. I think AR, maybe all the way up to the MO/OK border will have sleet or freezing rain predominantly based on 850 MB temps around 0 or slightly above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 JoMo, give us good news on the Euro please. Edit: Just a second or two late. Not exactly what I meant by good news. We don't want a major ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 So even sleet and ZR for you too now JoMo? Jeesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I can't bring myself to get excited about any model trends given the presence of the Tulsa screw zone over the past couple of years. I'll try to keep modest expectations until radar trends become apparent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 JoMo, give us good news on the Euro please. Edit: Just a second or two late. Not exactly what I meant by good news. We don't want a major ice storm. Yea I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I give up today and I'm going to bed. I won't be surprised to wake up in the morning and the models have trended to thunderstorms with temps in the 60's. LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 So even sleet and ZR for you too now JoMo? Jeesh Nope, I'm a couple counties to the north of the border. It actually keeps 850 MB temps at -3 here. But of course any more movement to the north, or any layers of warmer air that I can't see using the Euro products I have access to and not taking into account the models having issues with under doing WAA...... leads me to think it's going to be close. 850 MB temps in F'ville go from 1 to 0 and then crash as the system passes so...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This should teach me NEVER to track any winter storm until 24 hours out! I have lost way too much sleep on this...at least OK might get some rain out of this because we are back in a major drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I am simply amazed out how far north this thing is going on models, just amazed! I know where your at jomo I just wasnt sure if you meant your in the mix area as well now too. This could be a real icy mess here it sounds unless of course it goes north even more lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Thunder snow (TSSN) on the NAM for here. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_KJLN.txt Just SN on the GFS though but more precip: http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_KJLN.txt Enter your airport codes for extracted data here: http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Oh wow, I didn't realize 700 MB was so close to freezing.... The whole layer from 700-850 MB must be close to freezing.... dicey precip type forecast for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Jomo, how do you read that data? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Jomo, how do you read that data? Lol Ditto, I can never make heads or tails of anything lol. Text writeup and a general pic map is one thing but anything technical forget it haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Jomo, how do you read that data? Lol What parts specifically? And the NAM or the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think I started with the nam. Trying to see when we are fully below freezing at all levels for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think I started with the nam. Trying to see when we are fully below freezing at all levels for snow. Oh, if you use the very top "NAM" option, you can see the different layers. Like for here: http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KJLN.txt You can see the warm layer between 750-800 MB at hour 24.... (2.1 and 3.5 C respectively) By hour 30 it has cooled to -0.3 at 750 MB and -3.3 at 800 MB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GFS paints more snow here than the NAM does for the airport code thing jomo. NAM says TSPL whatever that is lol? Thunder Storm Ice Pellets lol??? Yep Im a noob at this stuff haha. GFS says it starts out as rain and quickly goes over to ZR then PL then snow. I guess I did the airport code right lol?? KXNA...idk Oh and hats off to you JoMo for all the wonderful updates you give to all of us each and every time theres something happening, Thank You!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Oh I see! Thanks Jomo! I live halfway in between Jenks and Tulsa right on I-44...guess I will check both airports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GFS paints more snow here than the NAM does for the airport code thing jomo. NAM says TSPL whatever that is lol? Thunder Storm Ice Pellets lol??? Yep Im a noob at this stuff haha. GFS says it starts out as rain and quickly goes over to ZR then PL then snow. I guess I did the airport code right lol?? KXNA...idk Oh and hats off to you JoMo for all the wonderful updates you give to all of us each and every time theres something happening, Thank You!! That should be the airport code and -TSPL is light thundersleet. You read it right. But the precip amounts on the GFS are showing predominantly a -FZRN (light freezing rain) event to light sleet to possibly a little bit of snow as it's ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That should be the airport code and -TSPL is light thundersleet. You read it right. But the precip amounts on the GFS are showing predominantly a -FZRN (light freezing rain) event to light sleet to possibly a little bit of snow as it's ending. Thanks, kinda hard to understand some of that stuff if you dont know the lingo on it or technical stuff lol. Maybe I looked at a different GFS text who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Now here is where we run into this issue.......The 06z NAM comes out in 30 minutes...... I need to go to bed... but... I have to see what it says! edit: 00z UKMET matches up to the Euro pretty well, more snow around S-Central MO though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 What an addiction huh JoMo lol, oh well its a safe one for the most part at least....other than going bonkers sometimes haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yes, it's a terrible hobby, lol 06z NAM shifted to the northwest a bit and increased amounts it looks like. I really really worry about sleet though. Someone is going to get decent amounts of snow,and someone just to the south of them is going to get a lot of crappy sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yes, it's a terrible hobby, lol 06z NAM shifted to the northwest a bit and increased amounts it looks like. I really really worry about sleet though. Someone is going to get decent amounts of snow,and someone just to the south of them is going to get a lot of crappy sleet. Maybe the crappy sleet would be here, Ive seen more sleet here than I have anywhere else....its like this place is sleet capital of the world lol. I didnt have that feeling about this storm from the getgo, wouldnt be shocked if it turned out to be a trace of something again haha. And man it was supposed to be 19 tonight, its still just shy of 32 here....that makes me nervous also. The cold front has already pushed through hasnt it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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