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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2014-15 Discussion


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00z Euro has shifted a bit more towards the NW when compared to it's 12z run. Amounts have increased as well. I think AR, maybe all the way up to the MO/OK border will have sleet or freezing rain predominantly based on 850 MB temps around 0 or slightly above. 

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So even sleet and ZR for you too now JoMo? Jeesh

 

Nope, I'm a couple counties to the north of the border. It actually keeps 850 MB temps at -3 here. But of course any more movement to the north, or any layers of warmer air that I can't see using the Euro products I have access to and not taking into account the models having issues with under doing WAA...... leads me to think it's going to be close. 

 

850 MB temps in F'ville go from 1 to 0 and then crash as the system passes so......

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I think I started with the nam. Trying to see when we are fully below freezing at all levels for snow.

 

Oh, if you use the very top "NAM" option, you can see the different layers.

 

Like for here:

http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KJLN.txt

 

You can see the warm layer between 750-800 MB at hour 24....  (2.1 and 3.5 C respectively)

 

By hour 30 it has cooled to -0.3 at 750 MB and -3.3 at 800 MB.

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GFS paints more snow here than the NAM does for the airport code thing jomo. NAM says TSPL whatever that is lol? Thunder Storm Ice Pellets lol??? Yep Im a noob at this stuff haha. GFS says it starts out as rain and quickly goes over to ZR then PL then snow. I guess I did the airport code right lol?? KXNA...idk

 

Oh and hats off to you JoMo for all the wonderful updates you give to all of us each and every time theres something happening, Thank You!!

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GFS paints more snow here than the NAM does for the airport code thing jomo. NAM says TSPL whatever that is lol? Thunder Storm Ice Pellets lol??? Yep Im a noob at this stuff haha. GFS says it starts out as rain and quickly goes over to ZR then PL then snow. I guess I did the airport code right lol?? KXNA...idk

 

Oh and hats off to you JoMo for all the wonderful updates you give to all of us each and every time theres something happening, Thank You!!

 

That should be the airport code and -TSPL is light thundersleet. You read it right. But the precip amounts on the GFS are showing predominantly a -FZRN (light freezing rain) event to light sleet to possibly a little bit of snow as it's ending.

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That should be the airport code and -TSPL is light thundersleet. You read it right. But the precip amounts on the GFS are showing predominantly a -FZRN (light freezing rain) event to light sleet to possibly a little bit of snow as it's ending.

Thanks, kinda hard to understand some of that stuff if you dont know the lingo on it or technical stuff lol. Maybe I looked at a different GFS text who knows.

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Now here is where we run into this issue.......The 06z NAM comes out in 30 minutes...... I need to go to bed... but... I have to see what it says! 

 

 

edit: 00z UKMET matches up to the Euro pretty well, more snow around S-Central MO though. 

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Yes, it's a terrible hobby, lol

 

06z NAM shifted to the northwest a bit and increased amounts it looks like.

 

I really really worry about sleet though. Someone is going to get decent amounts of snow,and someone just to the south of them is going to get a lot of crappy sleet. 

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Yes, it's a terrible hobby, lol

 

06z NAM shifted to the northwest a bit and increased amounts it looks like.

 

I really really worry about sleet though. Someone is going to get decent amounts of snow,and someone just to the south of them is going to get a lot of crappy sleet. 

Maybe the crappy sleet would be here, Ive seen more sleet here than I have anywhere else....its like this place is sleet capital of the world lol. I didnt have that feeling about this storm from the getgo, wouldnt be shocked if it turned out to be a trace of something again haha.

 

And man it was supposed to be 19 tonight, its still just shy of 32 here....that makes me nervous also. The cold front has already pushed through hasnt it?

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