JoMo Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 12z Euro still has a system starting next Saturday. Still not looking like a huge system but could give everyone some frozen eventually as it might be a light multi-day threat for our area. Gonna be cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 9, 2014 Author Share Posted November 9, 2014 12z Euro still has a system starting next Saturday. Still not looking like a huge system but could give everyone some frozen eventually as it might be a light multi-day threat for our area. Gonna be cold! If we can make 2 inches here, I'll be satisfied. Another fantasy storm keeps showing up at the end of this cold stretch that may have some real potential as things move along. Looks like a realistic scenario anyway. Definitely going to be fun until at least the 22nd around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Watching the Chiefs so I just took a quick look... but..... 12z control has a snowstorm for the area as it looks like it keeps the last upper low intact and stronger from the looks of things. Ensembles over the next 10 days.... Looks like around eh 17-19 (51) of them have 2+ inches for parts of the area. Seems that more have shifted south of our area. There's still a few that feature big amounts of frozen precip and a few that feature no frozen precip at all. I would like e12 to come true as that would be a lot of snow Ensembles say blocking holds over the pole until at least the 24th. Still looks cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Big win for the Chiefs on the road. Fumbled punt by Buffalo was the killer. I don't mind the further south solution 5 days out since things often trend to the NW the closer we get. Regardless of snow we better enjoy being outside the next 24 hours before the bottom drops out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 9, 2014 Author Share Posted November 9, 2014 Big win for the Chiefs on the road. Fumbled punt by Buffalo was the killer. I don't mind the further south solution 5 days out since things often trend to the NW the closer we get. Regardless of snow we better enjoy being outside the next 24 hours before the bottom drops out. That was a good game. Got my house winterized, got my truck winterized, got my warm work clothes out and ready to go. Let's do this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 That Euro map of frozen precip...couldn't ask for anything better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 The only thing that the OP ECMWF does show is another 1050mb high settling into MT @ Day 10, Still a ways out, but the reloading pattern does look promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 9, 2014 Author Share Posted November 9, 2014 The only thing that the OP ECMWF does show is another 1050mb high settling into MT @ Day 10, Still a ways out, but the reloading pattern does look promising. Yeah it does. I wonder if we'll warm up much at the end of November like some have suggested or if we'll have mostly continuous cold through the start of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Yeah it does. I wonder if we'll warm up much at the end of November like some have suggested or if we'll have mostly continuous cold through the start of December. That's what I was looking at as well. The Euro keeps 'delaying' any warmup in the ensembles. That blocking at the pole is pretty strong, and I don't know if it will break down that quickly. Cohen and his crew wrote a blog saying that they expect it's possible that we see an early Dec warmup as the AO goes neutral or positive before the stratospheric warming happens and a return to a negative AO by mid-Dec. http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 9, 2014 Author Share Posted November 9, 2014 That's what I was looking at as well. The Euro keeps 'delaying' any warmup in the ensembles. That blocking at the pole is pretty strong, and I don't know if it will break down that quickly. Cohen and his crew wrote a blog saying that they expect it's possible that we see an early Dec warmup as the AO goes neutral or positive before the stratospheric warming happens and a return to a negative AO by mid-Dec. http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Yeah, I saw that somewhere. It would be interesting to see the cold outbreak that would follow in that scenario. Wall to wall cold would probably be less in the extreme category or at least I think it would anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 I'm liking this early blast of cold. Anxious to see what if any winter precip we get next week. I've been so busy with work and family the last bit I haven't bothered to pay much attention. Then I realized on the 7day last week that it was going to get cold...Wondering how long this early cold will stick around...wouldn't mind a brief warmup for Thanksgiving weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 00z Euro is quite simply a blockbuster winter storm for the South late this week into next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 10, 2014 Author Share Posted November 10, 2014 00z Euro is quite simply a blockbuster winter storm for the South late this week into next. That's definitely what it is looking like. Looks like a classic southern plains snowstorm. I'm a little cautious that the GFS can't really see it though. Wonder why that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 00z Euro is quite simply a blockbuster winter storm for the South late this week into next. Mostly just south of this region..... biggest impact around Ft. Smith, AR. However, considering the time of year and the system in the northern Plains moved north as time went on, that might be a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 That's definitely what it is looking like. Looks like a classic southern plains snowstorm. I'm a little cautious that the GFS can't really see it though. Wonder why that is. I think the GFS was showing some kind of wave a few days ago? I think. But Euro has been just a little more consistent I believe. Time will tell I guess.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 About 19 of the 00z Euro ensemble members have 2+" of 'snow' somewhere in the area over the next 10 days. Only a couple look somewhat like the 00z Euro, the control doesn't have it either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 The Parallel GFS is back with the weekend storm but it doesn't appear to be super impressive. The next 48-72 hours should start to converge on some type of solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 The Parallel GFS is back with the weekend storm but it doesn't appear to be super impressive. The next 48-72 hours should start to converge on some type of solution. A couple of the 'old' GFS ensemble members have something... but it varies wildly. Looks like a couple are pretty nice snows. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallmref.html But you're right, and the Euro at 120 hrs is still king, so we will have to wait until it gets into that window before we will start to know for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 12z Euro squashes the bigger storm system threat, but still has a system on Saturday that produces some frozen precip, although I'd imagine temps wouldn't be too favorable.... generally along and north of I-44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 What about temps on the EURO? Still 30s through the next 7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Yeah, continued cold look in the 30's/40's... Saturday might be the warmest day and after that the temps are colder due to the snowfall the model thinks is on the ground. Big signal for a winter storm as we head into the extended starting the 18th or so. There is multi-model support for a system around this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 About 24 or so members have 2" of 'snow' (some kind of frozen precip) for the first storm in our area. There's no models that have 12+" on this run and most generally show light amounts with some showing up to around 6". Ensembles continue the same look and are cold through the 25th. The control is much more stormy looking everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Weeklies are out..... Same general pattern with troughing in the east, ridge over the top through Nov 27th. Then general troughing across much of the US through Dec 1st, which pulls east into the eastern US. Troughing from Alaska down the Pacific west coast from Dec 4th into the west coast and southwest through the end of the run on the 11th. Generally cold temps through Dec 5th and then above normal until the end of the run. Control run looks pretty active. This seems to be a common theme to change things and warm things up at the end of the run, but it keeps getting delayed. Keep in mind model skill at Day 10 is already pretty bad so anything past that is going to be much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Jomo...is that good for our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Jomo...is that good for our area? Should be. It doesn't look like we'll have a huge ridge over us for days and days leading to warm temps. (like in October) and it doesn't look like the blocking at the pole breaks down. All we need is to sneak a few storms into the SW and have them come out south of us and we are in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Should be. It doesn't look like we'll have a huge ridge over us for days and days leading to warm temps. (like in October) and it doesn't look like the blocking at the pole breaks down. All we need is to sneak a few storms into the SW and have them come out south of us and we are in business. Awesome!!! Let's Goooooo!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Should be. It doesn't look like we'll have a huge ridge over us for days and days leading to warm temps. (like in October) and it doesn't look like the blocking at the pole breaks down. All we need is to sneak a few storms into the SW and have them come out south of us and we are in business. It's still really early but any thoughts on Tulsa this weekend? My brother was going to come to town, local guys saying only a slight chance of wintery mix but as I go through the data it's look like we could get 3 to 6 inches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 It's still really early but any thoughts on Tulsa this weekend? My brother was going to come to town, local guys saying only a slight chance of wintery mix but as I go through the data it's look like we could get 3 to 6 inches... At this point, it looks pretty light. It might be rain or a wintry mix that far south though. This doesn't look like a wrapped up system this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 New GFS appears to be a bit wetter for our weekend system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 Nice. I'm in the little dark green blob. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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