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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2014-15 Discussion


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12z NAM is looking a bit more like the Euro.

 

It does have two waves of precip. This is after the first wave:

 

nam12z1.png

 

And this is after the 2nd weaker looking wave that mainly gives OK/AR and far S MO a bit more. (so this is total for both)

 

nam12z2.png

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12z GFS was pretty meh..... Although I just found out that the GFS (at least the WxBell map) includes sleet+snow in it's total snow algorithm.

 

Here's the total ptype centered on Arkansas, the snow area is generally 1-3" with some 4" amounts in eastern MO, then it mixes with sleet down in Arkansas:

 

gfsptype12z.png

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I see the usual north trend has happened now? Tulsa mentions mostly all freezing rain/sleet here with a tad bit of snow on the backside, sounds confusing again lol. I really want snow, I hate ZR

 

Winter Storm watches flying just to the south and east, go 1 county at that lmao(for my area)

I see the the morning trends are looks up..Wsw One county away for me also. Models trending back our away maybe?

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The trend is definitely our friend. Wouldn't take much for our NW AR friends to get pummeled. Let's just hope it doesn't shift so far north that it hits KC to Chicago... just kidding... kind of.

I agree. The trend is WAY better than yesterday. The GFS/NAM still are too far south but the other models posted above look great. I just don't want to get shutout, again.

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Mixing in oklahoma again i presume?

 

More than likely. Looks like the SE 1/2 of the state has 850 MB temps above or around 0 when precip begins. You can probably take the GFS sleet (ICEP) map a few posts above and push it about 1 county or 1/2 a county farther south and you'd have the Euro.

 

Of course with dry air, you can also probably knock a bit off these totals and have it start as sleet everywhere. 

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