JoMo Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 00z GGEM looked pretty good, 00z Euro looked similar to it's previous run but with a bit more precip again and a northward shift of precip. 06z GFS and 06z NAM look a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 12z NAM is looking a bit more like the Euro. It does have two waves of precip. This is after the first wave: And this is after the 2nd weaker looking wave that mainly gives OK/AR and far S MO a bit more. (so this is total for both) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looks like the Euro is farther north with the main snow in N. Ark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 12z RGEM doesn't look bad for this entire region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Wsw just south of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 12z RGEM doesn't look bad for this entire region. I'll gladly take this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 12z GFS was pretty meh..... Although I just found out that the GFS (at least the WxBell map) includes sleet+snow in it's total snow algorithm. Here's the total ptype centered on Arkansas, the snow area is generally 1-3" with some 4" amounts in eastern MO, then it mixes with sleet down in Arkansas: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I see the usual north trend has happened now? Tulsa mentions mostly all freezing rain/sleet here with a tad bit of snow on the backside, sounds confusing again lol. I really want snow, I hate ZR Winter Storm watches flying just to the south and east, go 1 county at that lmao(for my area) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I see the usual north trend has happened now? Tulsa mentions mostly all freezing rain/sleet here with a tad bit of snow on the backside, sounds confusing again lol. I really want snow, I hate ZR Winter Storm watches flying just to the south and east, go 1 county at that lmao(for my area) I see the the morning trends are looks up..Wsw One county away for me also. Models trending back our away maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 BTW, ChaserCon is going on right now. Here's a live stream of it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pCeVZTA7pO8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I see the the morning trends are looks up..Wsw One county away for me also. Models trending back our away maybe? Man I really hope so, I dont know though I just dont have that feeling for this one either. I guess we wait and see what tomorrow/monday morning brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 12z GGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yuck, heaviest stuff on your latest map there JoMo, just east and north of fayetteville it looks like. Looks nice for you though? Bleh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The trend is definitely our friend. Wouldn't take much for our NW AR friends to get pummeled. Let's just hope it doesn't shift so far north that it hits KC to Chicago... just kidding... kind of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The trend is definitely our friend. Wouldn't take much for our NW AR friends to get pummeled. Let's just hope it doesn't shift so far north that it hits KC to Chicago... just kidding... kind of. I agree. The trend is WAY better than yesterday. The GFS/NAM still are too far south but the other models posted above look great. I just don't want to get shutout, again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yuck, heaviest stuff on your latest map there JoMo, just east and north of fayetteville it looks like. Looks nice for you though? Bleh lol, yeah I bet the GGEM is way overdone though. It has 10" for me, and around 6" for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 12z Euro is shifting back to the NW a bit and is wetter again. Has a 6" band across extreme SE KS, across southern Missouri, extreme northern Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 12z Euro is shifting back to the NW a bit and is wetter again. Has a 6" band across extreme SE KS, across southern Missouri, extreme northern Arkansas. Mixing in oklahoma again i presume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Mixing in oklahoma again i presume? More than likely. Looks like the SE 1/2 of the state has 850 MB temps above or around 0 when precip begins. You can probably take the GFS sleet (ICEP) map a few posts above and push it about 1 county or 1/2 a county farther south and you'd have the Euro. Of course with dry air, you can also probably knock a bit off these totals and have it start as sleet everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I guess NWS Tulsa pretty much disagrees with every model now. Geez I hope they're wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 New Springfield graphic has about 1-2" for here, with 2-4" just east and south of here into NW AR, with 4-5" across S-central MO and points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The AFD for Tulsa says 1-3 inches of sleet/snow mix for most of NE OK north of 1-40 and for NW AR. This was at 11am though. I don't know what Tulsa's criteria is for a WWA and not sure if they have that anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 12z Euro control/ensembles seem to be targeting a general area around the MO/AR line as having the heaviest amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 12z NAM is looking a bit more like the Euro. It does have two waves of precip. This is after the first wave: Compared to the earlier NAM above, the 18z increased amounts and moved a bit more to the NW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 18z NAM indeed has more precip big time.. looks like sleet prob here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Winter Storm Watch expanded north to include NW AR now. And an advisory for SW MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Winter Storm Watch expanded north to include NW AR now. And an advisory for SW MO. Indeed! Also NE Okla! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looks like the is 18z GFS is Inching north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The trend is our friend for once? Winter Storm Watch for here now also lol, Im gonna be pissed if this stuff busts this time haha. Just dont be going too far north ok storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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