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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2014-15 Discussion


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This sounds like it could hit someone pretty good, problem is its too far out for me to buy into anything lol. The way this winter season has been I am not buying into it just yet until saturday haha. Tulsa has high precip chances for a mixed bag, sunday night into tuesday night it sounds. Time will tell

I know I'm with you on this.. I don't trust anything this winter's trend is against us here.

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12z Euro does go south this run. Most everyone would probably get *some* snow, and considering how bad this year has been. A couple of inches wouldn't be too bad. Areas that would get the least are farther NW with the most happening over AR. The farther east you are, the better chance of getting more. 

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How does the surface temps look this run? If it's low 30s then I don't see much of anything sticking around

 

Eh, it's going to be close for you all down south probably. The cold airmass is actually aimed at the eastern US (backdoor front) so the farther SW you go, it's going to get warmer.Also have to worry about a warm nose it looks like, especially in OK. Still too far away right now to get into too many details as it'll probably change. I'll have the Ensembles in about an hour or so.

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Eh, it's going to be close for you all down south probably. The cold airmass is actually aimed at the eastern US (backdoor front) so the farther SW you go, it's going to get warmer.Also have to worry about a warm nose it looks like, especially in OK. Still too far away right now to get into too many details as it'll probably change. I'll have the Ensembles in about an hour or so.

Thanks Jomo for keeping us all up with everything. Especially Euro related.

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I'm not liking that the Euro and GFS keep moving it east and south...hoping that was just a bad run. If it goes anymore S and E, we all are in trouble!

Dangit..I'm trying not to have a meltdown over one run and being so far out, but this "winter" has been awful for us in NE OK...half an inch of snow in Tulsa is just plain sad! Come on snow gods...let this be our storm! (I mean our thread area)

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Looks like the 12z Euro ensembles are pointing towards Arkansas, and far E OK as having the best shot of frozen precip. There are some members that have the best chances in southern Missouri. There are some members which have very light amounts. Overall, a very large spread still but the current best spot to be is probably in Arkansas somewhere, with the better chances in eastern areas.

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Agree completely with Shreveport's NWS..

 

WHILE THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH
OTHER...THEIR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN VERY POOR. IN
PREVIOUS RUNS...THE MODELS TRACKED THE SFC LOW GENERALLY ALONG THE
RED RIVER BETWEEN OK/TX KEEPING MOST OF THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR
FOR MOST OF THE EVENT AND DELAYING ANY WINTRY PRECIP UNTIL LATE
TUESDAY WHEN THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES. TODAY...THE MODELS ARE
DROPPING THE SFC LOW SOUTH OF THE CWA AND ALONG THE GULF COAST.
THIS IS RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COLDER SFC TEMPS BUT THE VERTICAL
PROFILE IS STILL TO WARM FOR WINTRY PRECIP FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE EVENT.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT SMALL LOCATION DIFFERENCES IN THESE
FEATURES CAN RESULT IN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURES AND LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TYPES/AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS
A LOT OF ROOM FOR CHANGE IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE POOR
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. /09/

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From what I've read on another blog the Ukie is still a good hit and further north than the other global models. With the poor model performance all winter more big shifts in the models the next 24-48 hrs would not surprise me at all. All cards still on the table.

 

UKMET looks more like the GEM that ouamber posted, but with less snow in NE OK/SE KS and points west. 

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Not fond of the 00z NAM, but it's the NAM so it's auto-tossed anyway. 00z GFS starting soon though to crush everyone's hopes and dreams.

Come on JoMo! Let's have some faith. At least for the next 20 minutes or so until we see. I'm holding out for some good news at least for a few more runs.

Edit: see, like I said, give it 20 minutes and then crush our dreams.

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Story of out lives this winter, I had a feeling this would happen lol. Well maybe things will work out on future runs lol?? Not holding my breath again, so sad it has such potential probly too :(

Words of the night " Hokie pokie" one local met used that several times. Hes still not buying the GFS. Lol

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