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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2014-15 Discussion


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I hate thunderstorms, for obvious reasons. So it can snow until July. :)

 

I'm still holding out for late Feb into early March for at least something a little more substantial in the wintry department hopefully.

 

I understand why you have an aversion to storms. 

 

Heady still seems bent on the fact that we will locked in a bitter arctic outbreak soon. We shall see! In the meantime, I enjoyed a wonderful trip today to Tulsa. Weather was great! Drove through Twin Bridges State Park. The boats were out and people were loving it! 

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I understand why you have an aversion to storms. 

 

Heady still seems bent on the fact that we will locked in a bitter arctic outbreak soon. We shall see! In the meantime, I enjoyed a wonderful trip today to Tulsa. Weather was great! Drove through Twin Bridges State Park. The boats were out and people were loving it! 

 

The end of Feb is still cold on the Euro. Couple shots of wintry weather maybe... (but so far this year every time it has shown frozen precip from this far out it's been mostly wrong.)

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I understand why you have an aversion to storms.

Heady still seems bent on the fact that we will locked in a bitter arctic outbreak soon. We shall see! In the meantime, I enjoyed a wonderful trip today to Tulsa. Weather was great! Drove through Twin Bridges State Park. The boats were out and people were loving it!

I'm pretty much with JoMo in regards to storms. The last 4 or 5 years of wondering if people you know all around the area are OK sorta changes a person's perspective on severe weather. Not trying to over sensationalize like many people do these days but I guess I just lost the thrill for it. As for the rest of winter, unless a model shows good snow in the day 0-3 timeframe, I'm not betting on it.

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We had a whopping 1/2" of snow from the last cough, cough , " Snow Storm "  here  . That is the most we've had at one time since last November .  And I stayed up all night to watch it :snowman:  .   My Grandson, who loves snow was disappointed because it wasn't enough snow to cancel school   <_<  . Our minimal amount to cancel school here is 1" due to the dirt roads and steep inclines ..... I am so looking forward for the " Big Snow " this year . I am not going to hold my breath for it though as I am not ready to croak just yet . Ha! 

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12z Euro has a burst of precip Monday morning.... Primarily in KS/MO (extreme NE OK/NW AR get lighter amounts). Temps look to be below freezing for a portion/most of this. Most likely snow in KS/MO while it's ice in NW AR/NE OK. 

 

Looks like a second wave of precip comes out on Tuesday and gives snow to NW AR. 

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The 12z Euro ensembles vary in how far N or S the 'frozen' precip is. They do suggest that the heavier amounts will be farther east at this time though. 

 

The 12z ensemble temps are cold (after it gets cold) all the way through the end of the run into late Feb.

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00z GGEM more icy maybe down this way from what im seeing. Rather be rain because GGEM really pumps up the ice here for what i see.

Yeah, you're not far from the same area as me and it's never good seeing a storm that starts as completely ice. I guess as bad as it sounds, it will at least be interesting if it indeed happens. A lot of different dynamics. I'm not betting on anything at all yet unless it's still there Saturday morning. Haha.

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Yeah, you're not far from the same area as me and it's never good seeing a storm that starts as completely ice. I guess as bad as it sounds, it will at least be interesting if it indeed happens. A lot of different dynamics. I'm not betting on anything at all yet unless it's still there Saturday morning. Haha.

I know how you feel. Still way to far away to even think of precip types or amounts at all really.   I wonder what the euro will say? Will it keep the course or go to some other solution.

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00z Euro is coming in farther south with the initial burst of precip Sunday night/Monday, so everything is colder. The burst that was over KS/MO on the 12z is now across OK/AR. 850's are colder/farther south as well.  Might be a mix across southern parts of our area down by Spot. Heaviest of this precip is across OK/AR this run. 

 

Next round looks like it comes Tuesday morning, should be all snow and the heaviest will be across OK/AR. Trough is positive tilted but there's 3 pieces of energy trying to sort itself out. 

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Finally something to track here for a few days. Agree with Jomo that the "system" is really more like a series of shortwaves that eject northeast. The placement of the heaviest precip seems a tad suspect on latest iteration of the Euro. Suspect the high pressure moves quicker and is stronger...as gauged by the obscene snow amounts in N AL, MS, and TN. Think that will get resolved in the coming days. Trends are good, though. 

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00z Euro is coming in farther south with the initial burst of precip Sunday night/Monday, so everything is colder. The burst that was over KS/MO on the 12z is now across OK/AR. 850's are colder/farther south as well.  Might be a mix across southern parts of our area down by Spot. Heaviest of this precip is across OK/AR this run. 

 

Next round looks like it comes Tuesday morning, should be all snow and the heaviest will be across OK/AR. Trough is positive tilted but there's 3 pieces of energy trying to sort itself out. 

Hmm well guess ill still be tracking this one for a lil bit longer.

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