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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2014-15 Discussion


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And back to kind of a 'meh' look on todays ensembles. Some areas will probably get a rain/snow mix that probably won't stick much this weekend. 

 

Looking ahead to next fall (lol)... JAMSTEC looks like we'll be heading towards a warm neutral ENSO condition with a positive looking PDO. 

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This sucks. Let's just fast forward to September so it's football season again and we can wipe the slate clean on winter. After all the preseason hype it will be shocking if Mother Nature pitches a no hitter. Not a single inch of snow for a lot of us thus far.

According to NOAA's website Fayetteville has only had 2 seasons with zero snowfall: 2006-2007 and 1999-2000.

Maybe we get get a pinch hit single in the bottom of the 9th with 2 outs just to break up the no hitter.

Who's ready for baseball now?

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Any good news from the Euro? From reading in the other forums it sounds like the low is further south than the GFS.

Euro runs from North Texas to Jackson, MS to Augusta, GA. GFS tracks from Texarkana to South of Memphis to the TN/KY border.

 

IMO, the Euro looks good for the northern 2/3rds of Missouri.  Your area looks to get a dusting to flurries.  

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Hey all , Been busy for the last couple of weeks but it doesn't look like I missed anything .  I,ve been watching this current system go from maybe this is it to the same old .This ugly pattern seems to have a death grip on this ( non ) winter .  This reminds me some what of the 1989 - 90 winter,  as far as snow went .  It was a very cold with record breaking temps , but a lack of snow , We had up to the end of February , less than 2" of snow unil....March . The first part of March we had an 8" snow before spring began .  And wouldn't you know it , I was in Dallas, Tx  taking care of business during that snow ... so  I,m not going to give up on a nice snow until I hear the ' Fat Lady Singing " or the first tornado which ever comes first  :lmao:  .

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looks like a nice little snowstorm here in eastern nebraska and points east for today and tomorrow

THIEF!!! That was our snowstorm!

 

It's weird how we were tracking it from a week out and it was over this area, now it's up there in your area. Enjoy  :snowing:

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Don't hold ur breath but next Thursday is starting to gain a little momentum for some snow around here. Here is the water equiv with what appears to be favorable temp profiles.

gfs_namer_138_precip_p24.gif

So what you're saying is there may be a chance of snow from new Mexico to Mississippi to Michigan area. I don't believe in snow anymore. It's a myth. Haha.

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Each subsequent model run lessens the snow chances. Not the trend you want if you love snow. I think I am ready for some rumbles of thunder. Bring on spring!

 

Oh come on, are you being a negative nancy standing on the edge of a cliff?

 

You're just late to the party. ;) 

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Yep, saw a bit of flurries last night and a bit this morning. 

 

Looks like some more is possible Wednesday.....

 

Weeklies still suggest winter won't be over as we go into early March so there's always a chance we could still get something. The window usually shuts down by mid to late March though.

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Nope. Not a negative Nancy at all. I prefer thunderstorms to snow actually. I am ready for Mother Nature to do something though. :)

 

I hate thunderstorms, for obvious reasons. So it can snow until July. :) 

 

I'm still holding out for late Feb into early March for at least something a little more substantial in the wintry department hopefully.

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This is going to be a bust non event once again for this area here, maybe a brief brief 20 minute snow shower if that.

 

You end up with anything? I watched it snow lightly for a bit but it was too windy to actually enjoy it. Ended up with a dusting.

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You end up with anything? I watched it snow lightly for a bit but it was too windy to actually enjoy it. Ended up with a dusting.

Nothing at all accumulation wise lol, shocked...nope not really haha. What were they expecting in your area? It flurried here off and on for about a half hour. The advisory was totally unnecessary here, tulsa is really doing some bang up jobs this year I just dont get it man....is it that hard to pinpoint stuff this season or what?

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Guidance didn't pick up on some drier air that moved in aloft which took cloud ice out until the deeper moisture moved in with with the band of stronger lift ("heavier" snow).  Timing of the precipitation was good, but the loss of cloud ice wasn't expected.  Overall, the forecast here for a T to around an inch did verify.  The winter weather advisory is generally for 2" of snow which was not forecast (hence no advisory leading up to the event).  With multiple precip types (especially freezing rain/drizzle) the threshold is MUCH lower.  I think the advisories were a great call given PM commute, rapidly cooling temps (especially north of the Bostons), and the probability of a flash freeze with residual moisture on area roadways. 

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Looking like winter is pretty much done already here with the exception of a few more possible cool shots in the next few weeks. I guess if there's a positive here it is that I'll have some pretty cheap heating bills for the rest of the season.

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