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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2014-15 Discussion


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Well, I hope you cash in on a little snow then.

As for the stuff at the end of the euro run, let me know when it's a day away and it's really going to snow. Lol.

 

Yeah, it's strange. Winter Weather advisory for 1-3" of snow with locally 4". Pretty unexpected and it'll be in a very narrow band. Could be moderate to heavy at times with 1"/hr under the band. But it will be very narrow. 

 

As for the long range, I don't really believe it either, but we'll see. 

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Yah I don't know man this is looking like a bust.  Radar drying up unless there's more lift coming across later tonite.

 

Yeah, I think it's a bust. Oh well, I wasn't expecting anything other than flurries anyway, haha

 

Now let's see if we can get an actual storm system in about 7-10 days!

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As much as I hate to say it I think we all thought tonight was a bust. NWS Springfield bit hard on this one. Kinda sad and funny. Ok, maybe funny isn't the right word, but at some point we just have to laugh.

This winter sucks. I remember back in early December when everyone was saying to wait until December 15 and things would improve.

It seems to me that you can throw most data out the window if we can't get a -AO. That appears to rule the roost over most everything else (ENSO, NAO, PDO, etc). Not suggesting the other things don't play a roll but the AO is king. Is that accurate?

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Yeah I hear ya.  GFS looking pretty decent in the 7-10 range so hopefully something to track soon.

 

The 12z Canadian had a storm system, the Euro previously had a storm system but got bogged down by too many different pieces of energy on the 12z run. Some of the 18z GEFS members had a pretty big storm system as well. 

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Hi Everyone ,  I have been following this board for quite a spell and decided to join .    As many have said already that this  winter is greatly lacking snow in the snow department . So much for high expectations that were generated in the fall . we have had less than one inch of the white stuff so far.. Yuck .   As far as tonight we are experiencing some sleet/snow mix currently .  I'm not expecting much unless more moisture becomes available . With the Dew point of 21 and humidity 67% shows that the air is still fairly dry . Sure hope that February is snowy to the extreme.... extreme here would be 12" +  :lmao:  ..

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Hi Everyone ,  I have been following this board for quite a spell and decided to join .    As many have said already that this  winter is greatly lacking snow in the snow department . So much for high expectations that were generated in the fall . we have had less than one inch of the white stuff so far.. Yuck .   As far as tonight we are experiencing some sleet/snow mix currently .  I'm not expecting much unless more moisture becomes available . With the Dew point of 21 and humidity 67% shows that the air is still fairly dry . Sure hope that February is snowy to the extreme.... extreme here would be 12" +  :lmao:  ..

 

Howdy! Radar shows it should be precipitating over Dora right now, but you might be right, it is awfully dry. I would like a 12+" snowstorm as well. But with how horrible this winter has been, I wouldn't gripe if I got a 6" snow. Something other than drizzle or rain would be great. I'm one of the 'lucky' ones that got like 3-4" back in November.

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Howdy! Radar shows it should be precipitating over Dora right now, but you might be right, it is awfully dry. I would like a 12+" snowstorm as well. But with how horrible this winter has been, I wouldn't gripe if I got a 6" snow. Something other than drizzle or rain would be great. I'm one of the 'lucky' ones that got like 3-4" back in November.

   Yeah , It is still sleeting (and am enjoying every minute of it ) mostly but is soon to stop per my radar view . I would settle for 6" snow also at this point . We only got 1/2" in during the November event and thought to our self ; This is going to be The Winter to remember snow wise.   But if there is any consolation I wasn't the only one that thought that . But such is life  . I'm going back outside to watch the Ice while it is still about  :santa:

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Weeklies look cold for the last weekish of Jan and first week or so of Feb. Then all the troughing moves north back across the pole and into Alaska which will probably lead to a warmup before it looks like it might change again at the end of the run with more troughing in the Pacific and Alaska around mid-Feb which leads to more cold again.

 

So cold the last week of Jan into early Feb, then probably a warmup of some kind, and then probably going back cold by mid-Feb.

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As the Euro caves to the GFS again, I'm just gonna say I give up on this winter, lol 

 

The lack of blocking and fast progressive flow means the GFS will probably be correct. Every time the Euro looks good for an extended period of possible winter weather, it ends up eventually caving. We are currently at, or close to our coldest time of the year, and things just haven't lined up this year at all. Maybe we will get a winter storm or two before it turns Spring or maybe even in early Spring, or maybe we won't get one at all. The models have had no clue this year and this year has probably been the worst bust for a lot of mets and forecasters. 

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As the Euro caves to the GFS again, I'm just gonna say I give up on this winter, lol 

 

The lack of blocking and fast progressive flow means the GFS will probably be correct. Every time the Euro looks good for an extended period of possible winter weather, it ends up eventually caving. We are currently at, or close to our coldest time of the year, and things just haven't lined up this year at all. Maybe we will get a winter storm or two before it turns Spring or maybe even in early Spring, or maybe we won't get one at all. The models have had no clue this year and this year has probably been the worst bust for a lot of mets and forecasters.

Just plain horrible. Outside of a rogue storm maybe in February this winter is done IMO.

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Just plain horrible. Outside of a rogue storm maybe in February this winter is done IMO.

It is amazing how us in Texas are getting excited for another round of winter weather next week with potential for more after that while y'all seem to be much more pessimistic. Guess it is a matter of expectations as we average only 1-3" of snow a year along with a couple sleet or freezing rain events.

Hope y'all can get at least one big storm by April.

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I would take 1-3 inches!! But heck Tulsa has only had .5 inches TOTAL! That's awful!!

Dang, did not realize it was that bad up there. We got a trace in November here. There is still a small chance that we will have some wet snow flakes mix in on Thursday north of I-20. Hope February and spring is nicer to us all.
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Been getting some good sleep since I gave up on winter and don't wake up to look at the models at night. Looked at the weeklies today. Ensemble gets colder and stays colder after the 7th or so it looks like. Control has more of a ridge.

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Been getting some good sleep since I gave up on winter and don't wake up to look at the models at night. Looked at the weeklies today. Ensemble gets colder and stays colder after the 7th or so it looks like. Control has more of a ridge.

Yup. Zero excitement whatsoever. This is the least I have checked the models out in a very long time. Such a shame.

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JoMo,

Any good news from the Euro today? Sounds like it's a good run for south of us. Now we need the typical shift to the NW.

 

Not really. NW AR might get a brief mix of light precip before it turns to rain. Anything else is pretty much 10+ days out and will change.

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I was just about to comment that I thought tonight's event had the potential to be interesting in Central OK, but OUN beat me to it.  They just put up warnings for parts of far Western OK (where they previously had advisories) and extended advisories all the way east to OKC.  So far this winter, the two minor snow events we've had over-produced in OKC to an almost comical level.  As a result, we are at 6" for the season (2.5" on 11/16 and 3.5" on 12/27/14).  I am cautiously optimistic that this event may do a little over-producing of its own, though I suspect Mother Nature (and, in particular, her boundary layer temps) will have something to say about that.         

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I'm not going to jinx it by mentioning a certain model from Canada and a certain American model showing a certain something around day 9-10.

 

I will follow up on not jinxing it by mentioning certain unnamed models have been consistent the past several days showing this certain something, and the dates affected are remaining the same.

 

 

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