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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2014-15 Discussion


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Springfield says they are only 3.8 MB away from tying the all time high pressure record set back Jan 7th 1968. Currently sitting at 1047 MB and rising, and the record is 1050.8 MB.

 

12z Euro says we have a couple of systems worth watching over the next 10 days (primarily starting around Day 5), none look really strong or anything as of now, but they might provide some areas with chances of frozen precip. (control run actually coats the entire area in frozen precip over the next 8 days) After/around about Day 11 or so, it looks like we'll get a 'warmup', but it looks like it won't last long as the storm system moves out of the GOA into the west and southwest and ridging again establishes itself into Alaska. 

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Springfield says they are only 3.8 MB away from tying the all time high pressure record set back Jan 7th 1968. Currently sitting at 1047 MB and rising, and the record is 1050.8 MB.

 

12z Euro says we have a couple of systems worth watching over the next 10 days (primarily starting around Day 5), none look really strong or anything as of now, but they might provide some areas with chances of frozen precip. (control run actually coats the entire area in frozen precip over the next 8 days) After/around about Day 11 or so, it looks like we'll get a 'warmup', but it looks like it won't last long as the storm system moves out of the GOA into the west and southwest and ridging again establishes itself into Alaska. 

Looks like the pressure topped out at around 1048.5mb earlier this evening before the pressure started decreasing.  Topeka broke a record at 1055mb...give or take. 

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Yeah, the first system around Sunday is going to be a mess that's very dependent on surface temperatures that will be close. In any case, it will probably be ice or rain.  I think the second system on Tues night into Wednesday is going to be snow though. This looks like a light system still, with the heaviest accumulations being west of our area in central OK and points west. However, as it looks now, everyone may see a little snow or flurries.

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Yeah, the first system around Sunday is going to be a mess that's very dependent on surface temperatures that will be close. In any case, it will probably be ice or rain.  I think the second system on Tues night into Wednesday is going to be snow though. This looks like a light system still, with the heaviest accumulations being west of our area in central OK and points west. However, as it looks now, everyone may see a little snow or flurries.

Yea I see that in the forecast now with tuesday and wednesday, snow mentioned. Saturday after midnight up until tuesday tulsa has a slop bag mix mentioned....all of it freezing rain, rain and sleet bleh. Of course who knows for sure what's going to happen, I dont really put too much trust into their forecasts.

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Both the new JMA 'monthly' and the Euro Weeklies, which just came out, have troughing in the west for basically weeks 3 & 4. 

 

Everything that was expected from the last weeklies still looks good this run, the usual 'too fast by a few days' applies. The 28th/30th storm is north of us this run though but it looks very cold after that. This all highly depends on where the ridging sets up off the west coast (Pacific) into Alaska. Overall, I'd say it isn't a bad run. Not really a 'torchy' look unless things set up farther west in the Pacific, which is possible, but it's too far out to really know. 

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This forecast is tricky. I'm supposed to go to a family function east of Wichita tomorrow and come back Sunday. Snow wouldn't bother me icy bridges/overpasses freak me out. NWS Tulsa's afternoon write up sounded wishy washy if temps are a couple degrees colder. Thoughts?

Yea its all over the place once again, tulsa never seems to be really into details either like springfield was when I lived in missouri. I dont really put much into what they say and just read here mostly, we have some really smart people on this forum! I see monday-wednesday's forecast is pretty much out there in "who knows" land also now lol, sux. Be careful on your journey! Maybe jomo will have some insight for you.

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Still looks like some ice tomorrow for some areas. The area that will end up with the most and longest duration is N-central AR and S-central MO. The system for Tues/Wed is coming in drier each run. After that comes the warmup. 

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Yea seems to be a small window of opportunity early am tomorrow then rain lol. The chances of that snow happening look slim to none now :( . Hopefully it changes but its not looking good, wow this winter is a complete dud!!! All this cold we had too :(. Oh well maybe feb. something will happen after that bleh, march is tough cause of the sun angle!

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An icy dicey morning for some here... not really for most. May be some more light frozen precip as the cold air swings back in. The models almost lost completely the snow for Tues PM/Wednesday yesterday, but seem to be giving it a tiny bit more life this morning. Not that it is going to be a blockbuster system... but a little snow would be nice before our warm up begins. Any updates from the EURO?

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Nothing to really update. 12z Euro had some residual moisture around this evening so some areas (mainly MO) may see some freezing drizzle late tonight if it gets cold enough. The system coming in Wed or so is going to be moisture starved and the trend for making it drier continues so I'm hoping for at most, flurries, with that now. After that, things warm up for a bit before things start improving after the 23rd or so.

 

The height rises and ridging looks strong around Alaska and in the Pacific on the ensemble today and that will lead to downstream troughing over the west or central US as we get into the last week of Jan, which means cold air will be dumped again. The SE ridge is showing up, but due to the Euro's bias of being too slow and too far west, that probably won't be there, or it'll be farther east than depicted. We'll probably have to watch the last week of Jan into Feb for something to happen. 

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Man could this possibly go down for one of the worst winter seasons ever lol? Not sure how old most of you guys/gals are but what was the worst you ever seen? This would be it for sure for me, if it plays out like it has been so far! We are sitting at probly a trace of snow so far here lol. The dusting in late november was it

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Man could this possibly go down for one of the worst winter seasons ever lol? Not sure how old most of you guys/gals are but what was the worst you ever seen? This would be it for sure for me, if it plays out like it has been so far! We are sitting at probly a trace of snow so far here lol. The dusting in late november was it

Nah, not the worst yet. 2012-13 pretty much owns the title for the worst I can remember.

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Everything is just so progressive this year. Sustained cold in our area is just hard to come by. The

mean trough position this year has been out west, which has robbed us for the most part with only short

bouts of cold. The GFS does look at bit more promising starting next week though so not all hope is lost.

Our snow will come but the question is how much and how long will it last. If it can't snow around here

in February just chalk it up as a stinker and lets move on.

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For up here in my area, I think 2004-2005 was pretty bad, as well as 2011-2012. 

 

12z Euro lost the big snowstorm it had at the end of its run last night. The control and a lot of the ensemble members still have snowfall around the area over the next 15 days. I do worry that it'll be too far NW of us though. The cold is still coming back after the upcoming warmup though so the end of the month, first part of Feb still looks like our best chance of anything.

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For up here in my area, I think 2004-2005 was pretty bad, as well as 2011-2012. 

 

12z Euro lost the big snowstorm it had at the end of its run last night. The control and a lot of the ensemble members still have snowfall around the area over the next 15 days. I do worry that it'll be too far NW of us though. The cold is still coming back after the upcoming warmup though so the end of the month, first part of Feb still looks like our best chance of anything.

I was living in south jersey in 2004 and 05 which were pretty bad there also if memory serves right, we pulled it off though and got a few decent snowstorms in that time so it wasnt the worst I've seen. 011 and 012 weren't too too bad in missouri when I lived up that way, I got some pics stored that say we had a few decent storms. This is the furthest south I've been and just haven't come to realize it is what it is here yet ya know lol. Got to be extremely lucky in this spot I think for something really decent.

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Narrow band of snow tonight for my neck of the woods I guess?

 

File.png

 

 

12z Euro ensembles have some major cold anomalies showing up for the last week or so of January today. Much of the US minus the southwestern US is below normal. The control run is hitting the snow button for our entire area and a lot of the ensembles are lighting up with snow as well. Considering how awful this winter has been, I'm sure things will change back to dry and cold or something, lol.

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Narrow band of snow tonight for my neck of the woods I guess?

File.png

12z Euro ensembles have some major cold anomalies showing up for the last week or so of January today. Much of the US minus the southwestern US is below normal. The control run is hitting the snow button for our entire area and a lot of the ensembles are lighting up with snow as well. Considering how awful this winter has been, I'm sure things will change back to dry and cold or something, lol.

Well, I hope you cash in on a little snow then.

As for the stuff at the end of the euro run, let me know when it's a day away and it's really going to snow. Lol.

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