NwWhiteOut Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Eh, weather happens. I'm just tired of chasing it. Some years you get a good winter, some years you don't. Analogs mean jack squat, computer model forecasts mean jack squat. Sometimes you end up in a good spot and have a good winter, other times you don't. Obviously nobody and not even our most advanced computer models can predict it. Yea man you nailed it right on by what you said there, I think it just comes down to being in the right spot at the right time anymore with storms. Hopefully something happens when we got the cold air in place, the forecast is just all over the place for this week into the weekend! I guess anything can happen at this point, maybe rain maybe snow maybe a mixed bag of everything. Will just nowcast when it happens is all ya know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Euro sends a tomahawk missile at the stratospheric vortex and destroys it over the next 10+ days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 All I know is cold rain sucks, and freezing rain sucks even worse. The models keep flip-flopping with no consistently. The weather guys around Tulsa have no clue. Even Mike Collier, one of the best mets around said this is one of those storms you just have to now cast. Sucks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Euro sends a tomahawk missile at the stratospheric vortex and destroys it over the next 10+ days. Yeah, that's the only thing that may save Dr. Cohen from a huge bust is if that happens. It would also make late Jan into Feb more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Eh, weather happens. I'm just tired of chasing it. Some years you get a good winter, some years you don't. Analogs mean jack squat, computer model forecasts mean jack squat. Sometimes you end up in a good spot and have a good winter, other times you don't. Obviously nobody and not even our most advanced computer models can predict it. Yah I know what you are saying JoMo. That's one of the reasons I'm not on here as much as I used to be. The chase gets tiring to only have a good storm develop about 1 out of 10 times it seems. The models can sometimes provide guidance and sometimes they're not even good for that. This yr seems to be difficult for some reason. Maybe something good later in this season but I don't think we get much of anything this month. Sorry for the downer attitude but its just not feeling right at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Yah I know what you are saying JoMo. That's one of the reasons I'm not on here as much as I used to be. The chase gets tiring to only have a good storm develop about 1 out of 10 times it seems. The models can sometimes provide guidance and sometimes they're not even good for that. This yr seems to be difficult for some reason. Maybe something good later in this season but I don't think we get much of anything this month. Sorry for the downer attitude but its just not feeling right at this time. Yeah, it's not looking great right now. Last year was a lot easier since we had a somewhat stable pattern. This year has not been stable at all so far. I think a lot of the long range forecasters were counting on a more stable pattern showing up by now and so far, it hasn't. There also seems to be a lag and the atmosphere is going to act like it's in more of a La Nina state as we go through January. It wasn't really expected and there's going to be a lot of busted forecasts. Even DT from Wxrisk says that his forecast is probably going to bust if January doesn't turn out different. Although the interesting thing to watch will be the stratosphere on the Euro, and to see if the PV being split/elongated makes it make an abrupt change on one of it's future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Yah I know what you are saying JoMo. That's one of the reasons I'm not on here as much as I used to be. The chase gets tiring to only have a good storm develop about 1 out of 10 times it seems. The models can sometimes provide guidance and sometimes they're not even good for that. This yr seems to be difficult for some reason. Maybe something good later in this season but I don't think we get much of anything this month. Sorry for the downer attitude but its just not feeling right at this time. I understand where you're coming from. If it helps, you're not alone. Many places in the Midwest have had a snowless December...including Moline IL, Chicago, Milwaukee, and Detroit to name a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 After looking over the latest NAM...kinda getting concerned about a glaze of ice along the I-44 corridor Thu into Friday. The tendency of the models is to sometimes erode shallow arctic air too quickly, and if that is the case, some areas could get hammered pretty good. The NAM was showing decent QPF, especially in N AR on Friday morning. If the track of that first disturbance moves 1-200 miles farther north, this could be something more than a glaze of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Still think all hope is not lost for wintry weather this weekend. It doesn't look like it is going to be a blockbuster of a storm that is for sure. Still something to track. Am a bit surprised how slow the arctic air was to move in last night. After looking preliminarily at the 12z models... temps are the key here, both at the surface and above. We are really teetering within a couple of degrees of big issues. I think somewhere in Kansas or Missouri may have some nasty icing on their hands. Could be an issue in Oklahoma, too, depending on temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Still think all hope is not lost for wintry weather this weekend. It doesn't look like it is going to be a blockbuster of a storm that is for sure. Still something to track. Am a bit surprised how slow the arctic air was to move in last night. It was a bit slow getting in here (Central OK), too, but it's been impressive since arriving. Our temperatures have continued dropping this morning even after sunrise. We are now down to 26 F with a dewpoint of 19 F just before noon here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Still think all hope is not lost for wintry weather this weekend. It doesn't look like it is going to be a blockbuster of a storm that is for sure. Still something to track. Am a bit surprised how slow the arctic air was to move in last night. After looking preliminarily at the 12z models... temps are the key here, both at the surface and above. We are really teetering within a couple of degrees of big issues. I think somewhere in Kansas or Missouri may have some nasty icing on their hands. Could be an issue in Oklahoma, too, depending on temps. Yeah, that's an interesting complex system coming up. Might get some light icing Thursday/Thursday night. (temps are close) It should warm above freezing on Friday. There might be more icing or frozen precip Friday night/Saturday morning. The system itself shears out, before reforming farther south. To add to the model confusion, there's also a northern system that's going to phase with the system, but as of right now it looks to be too far north of us. Still needs to be watched though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Ugh these constant forecast changes are giving me a migraine lol. I am totally confused as to what is going to happen. I wish I could know something and be prepared for ice because that sounds like the way things are heading, though confidence is still low it sounds from tulsa IDK. We have no car right now either(transmission problems) but thankfully I am in biking range to most things, to make matters worst my significant other has had major surgery recently and the last few months have been utter hell for us to say the least! JoMo I always value your opinions what do you think for fayetteville here even if its just a guess? Should I be worried, as you know I am scared of ice storms cause we have had some pretty bad ones in the past and lost a lot of stuff etc. Not trying to be a pain or nag Im just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Ugh these constant forecast changes are giving me a migraine lol. I am totally confused as to what is going to happen. I wish I could know something and be prepared for ice because that sounds like the way things are heading, though confidence is still low it sounds from tulsa IDK. We have no car right now either(transmission problems) but thankfully I am in biking range to most things, to make matters worst my significant other has had major surgery recently and the last few months have been utter hell for us to say the least! JoMo I always value your opinions what do you think for fayetteville here even if its just a guess? Should I be worried, as you know I am scared of ice storms cause we have had some pretty bad ones in the past and lost a lot of stuff etc. Not trying to be a pain or nag Im just curious. Sorry to hear about the surgery, but man, I do not know with temps hovering this close to freezing and the models not handling cold airmasses that well. I'd say the chances for snow down there are pretty slim, so the main precip types would be sleet/freezing rain and rain. Probably sleet/light freezing rain when precip starts Thursday, probably changing to just light freezing rain as times goes on and if temps recover above freezing, then rain on Friday, assuming there's still precip around. I just worry that the near surface might become covered in light freezing rain and then temps don't recover as much on Friday. And then Saturday will probably be just rain down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 00z Euro is coming in a bit colder for Thursday. Looks like a light icing event from central OK into our area Thursday. Friday looks mostly dry except for maybe AR/OK areas and it looks like the precip falls in the areas above freezing. Late Friday night/Sat morning it is a bit confusing as the system starts interacting with a system digging into it's backside. It looks like things could start as probably ice in some places, especially MO/KS before switching over to probably rain. Looks like central KS into NW MO would see some possible snow, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Thanks Jomo, always appreciate your input! Yea its a confusing storm system and the models dont seem to be doing very well with shallow cold air as they usually do? Will just get some basic things to be safe, one good thing here is our power and everything is burried utilities so that helps a lot probly. I dont think this will be crippling but who knows the way this crazy year has been so far. The forecast is just changing every few hours, just makes it that much harder to know whats going to happen. The local mets are scratching their heads in confusion as well and said to stay tuned because they don't know details yet. One local met said even friday he wasn't sure on because if we get enough ice thursday/thursday night it might keep temps down lower at the surface on friday. Who knows lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Still this close to the event and the best I can say is... IDK. My hunch is that we may see some wintry mix precip at the beginning of the event. I am just not sure how long it will last in SW MO before turning to all rain. Track of low is key for snowfall and deformation zone on the back side. Still looks like best shot is NC OK up through KC region toward Kirksville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Sounds like it will be mostly a rain event here as jomo was saying. Still tulsa doesn't know for sure even this close and it will all depend on if temps get above freezing. How many times have we seen this happen lol? TOO many, its cold and storm comes and it gets warm lol. Also doesnt sound like its going to be as much precip either as they were earlier thinking. You guys/gals up in missouri are gonna have to worry the most I think. Tulsa mentioned people north of i-44 may see all freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 FWIW, model guidance temps are too warm today across a large chunk of the region, especially in OK. I don't know if that has long term implications or not but I thought it was interesting to note... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 It appears like it will be a battle between surface temps and WAA. As has been stated all along, models are very poor, and quick, to erode arctic air too fast. The track of the low once it kicks out will make a difference as well. 50-100 mile shift north or south will have an impact on precip type at any given location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 My NWS forecast is just cloudy until Friday night, then rain, possibly changing to snow Saturday night. Maybe next winter will be good. Edit: You all down south still need to watch the temps. Gonna be close as far as sleet/freezing rain is concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 My NWS forecast is just cloudy until Friday night, then rain, possibly changing to snow Saturday night. Maybe next winter will be good. There is a somewhat substantial difference between the TSA and SGF forecasts. I remember when the offices used to coordinate more than they do now. Seems more of a hodge podge of forecasts, depending on who is on duty... much like the outlook to outlook shifts we see from SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Yep looks like the temps were lowered but most everything taken out of the forecast now. Wow amazing how much these forecasts have changed! I wonder if it will change again haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Winter Weather Advisory expanded into NW AR and NE OK. Temps aren't moving much and there will be a lot of wetbulbing based on how dry the airmass is. *Should* be a fairly light event though and it *should* be sleet and light freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Winter Weather Advisory expanded into NW AR and NE OK. Temps aren't moving much and there will be a lot of wetbulbing based on how dry the airmass is. *Should* be a fairly light event though and it *should* be sleet and light freezing rain. If latest RAP is correct, SW MO is getting in on the fun, too. Edit: Has support from HRRR, too. NAM says it isn't buying it. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 So far this stuff is primarily right to the south of the area here, guess time will tell. Temps have shot up above freezing also, up to 34 just about now. But yea an advisory here as well until 6pm, lets see if another one busts Wow friday evening is a close call! 34 degrees and heavy rain. Forecast says rain over to snow or mixed precip saturday evening, I would love to see some snow thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Raining here now, temp trying to wetbulb...down from 35 to 32.8 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Weeklies in a few hours, but from what I'm seeing from the Euro ensembles and the new JMA monthly....Generally looks cold after this system moves out for the next 10ish days or so. Looks a bit 'torchy' (above normal) after that, but the JMA rebuilds the west coast/Alaska ridge by week 3-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrgolf Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Is the JMA that accurate jomo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Weeklies in a few hours, but from what I'm seeing from the Euro ensembles and the new JMA monthly....Generally looks cold after this system moves out for the next 10ish days or so. Looks a bit 'torchy' (above normal) after that, but the JMA rebuilds the west coast/Alaska ridge by week 3-4. Yea it will probly get cold and dry then storms will come and it will turn warm lol, the forecast pretty much was a bust here again from tulsa. Man I appreciate forecasters and all that they do but tulsa seems so wishy washy most times to me, this is the 3rd bust now from them allready. This season seems really hard to forecast and I wont say too much more cause Im not a forecaster and cant understand this stuff like you guys do. Oh well lets hope something plays out this season or its going to be really boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Is the JMA that accurate jomo? The monthly run isn't too bad. It doesn't show individual systems though, just the longwave pattern, and week 3 & 4 are combined. If the weeklies and the JMA monthly show the same thing, I'd say there's a chance they will be at least somewhat correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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