JoMo Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 There was a change on the 00z Euro. In the later periods, a second trough develops and digs southeast across the Rockies. It's positive tilt, but induces a return flow so overrunning happens. The precip is rather light but if it's cold enough, it could be frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 There was a change on the 00z Euro. In the later periods, a second trough develops and digs southeast across the Rockies. It's positive tilt, but induces a return flow so overrunning happens. The precip is rather light but if it's cold enough, it could be frozen. Cool. I was wondering if that wasn't what I was seeing. Looking more and more likely that we'll see something of a wintry type fall. I'll be a WxBell subscriber by this time tomorrow. I get tired of not being able to see what exactly is being discussed. Anyway, Thanks for the updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 Hi, everybody! Good to be officially back for the winter (although I've been snooping around for weeks). Thanks to those of you who contribute model data, etc. You're the bee's knees. I'm a weenie for anamolous cold, so I'm stoked to see just how cold it'll be next week. A little snow would be awesome, but not getting too excited just yet. Anyway, here's to a long, snowy winter. Welcome back Westhope. Must've missed your message there earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 There was a change on the 00z Euro. In the later periods, a second trough develops and digs southeast across the Rockies. It's positive tilt, but induces a return flow so overrunning happens. The precip is rather light but if it's cold enough, it could be frozen. Anyone who lives in the Southern Plains and points just north and east, should love the long range Euro. After cold air becomes established next week, it shows a piece of energy diving SE. That develops a storm across Panhandle of Texas and Oklahoma that pulls down even colder air...along with the potential for wintry precip. Analogs have been hinting at this scenario...and it's finally showing on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Don't quote this post since I just linked the images. It's pretty far out, but both the GFS and the new parallel GFS have a system or chance of what looks like snow on todays run in the extended. The GGEM is much farther south and is actually on the Gulf TX coast from the looks of it. GFS: Parallel GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 Anyone who lives in the Southern Plains and points just north and east, should love the long range Euro. After cold air becomes established next week, it shows a piece of energy diving SE. That develops a storm across Panhandle of Texas and Oklahoma that pulls down even colder air...along with the potential for wintry precip. Analogs have been hinting at this scenario...and it's finally showing on the models. This is great news. I don't know about anybody else but I know I'm pretty excited. Just looking at the height maps you've shown, this may be one of those type of things that gets downplayed until it is actually happening. I think as more cold water surfaces in places in the Pacific (outside of enso regions) the contrast will get the STJ going. It's just a matter of time and patience now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 Sweeeeeeet! JoMo that is awesome! I had not looked that far ahead yet. I'll take one of those. Let's hope it stays there for 10 days. I guess you posted while I was writing my last post. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 12z operational GFS hour 228 is a classic southern plains snowstorm! I so hope to keep that there. I'm hoping with it getting better every run that it's because it is becoming a clearer signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 Here is a link to the GFS map I mentioned earlier. can't post images. Sorry. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014110712/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 12z Euro has a couple of disturbances around the same timeframe. I'd say it looks more like the parallel GFS vs the operational GFS however. Best chances for accumulating frozen precip would be across the TX Panhandle and northern TX as well as southern OK on this run. I sure wish the Euro went out another day or two so I could see what it has in store for that low over the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 12z Euro has a couple of disturbances around the same timeframe. I'd say it looks more like the parallel GFS vs the operational GFS however. Best chances for accumulating frozen precip would be across the TX Panhandle and northern TX as well as southern OK on this run. I sure wish the Euro went out another day or two so I could see what it has in store for that low over the SW. I have to agree with you on seeing what the SW low does. I'd sure get really excited if it were to snow during my deer gun season. Hasn't been snow on the ground in this area that early since I was very very young. I may have been looking at that map wrong but it appears the greatest precip rates for that timeframe are sitting where US 412 is located aren't they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 The operational GFS is farther north, yes. But it's still too far away. Looking at the next 10 days on the 12z Euro individual ensembles (there's like 51 of them).... About 11 or so have very little or no frozen precip for our area. The other 40 or so have some kind of frozen precip in our area. The majority of those that do show frozen precip don't have it being a big storm, however there are a few that have a much larger system with heavier amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 The operational GFS is farther north, yes. But it's still too far away. Looking at the next 10 days on the 12z Euro individual ensembles (there's like 51 of them).... About 11 or so have very little or no frozen precip for our area. The other 40 or so have some kind of frozen precip in our area. The majority of those that do show frozen precip don't have it being a big storm, however there are a few that have a much larger system with heavier amounts. I also agree with it being too far to tell yet as well. Just basing off recent adjustments to the frontal positioning with the timing of things. The low feature has been present in the runs for quite a while. I shouldn't have came off like something is a sure thing but it's hard to deny the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Euro has some crazy snowfall totals across North Texas and Oklahoma. Upwards of a foot of snow. Gosh, how this has uncanny similarities of 1976. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 Well, I finally subscribed to Weatherbell. Hope this season makes it worth doing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Well, I finally subscribed to Weatherbell. Hope this season makes it worth doing! It takes a bit of getting used to the navigation and to develop a 'routine' of knowing when to check for the maps. Be sure to check the Premium link in the mornings as that's when Joe B posts his blogs and videos usually, although he sometimes posts multiple times. Joe D usually posts a blog a day with a lot of maps. http://www.weatherbell.com/premium/ This time of year, the Euro starts a few minutes before midnight/noon and finishes at 1 AM/PM. Euro maps are actually divided up somewhat. The main 'go to' Euro link is in the left column labeled as "ECMWF 0.125 CONUS & NHEMI". This is the majority of the HRES operational Euro maps to 240. One thing to note is that the Euro just shows precip when temps are 32 or below as 'snow', so you have to take that into account that it could be some other form of frozen precip depending on temp profile. For the surface temps/anomalies, as well as a comparison to the previous run. (which is good for seeing if it's warmer/colder or what's changed on the precip maps.... (also on the bottom of this page are the surface temps for the ensemble mean/control as well as the accumulated snowfall on the control) You will want the ECMWF link listed up at the top after "USA Precip + 2-m Temperature (Anomalies): " The "ECMWF EPS (Ensemble 0.25)" link is the Euro ensemble mean and control. The Euro ensembles are typically out by 2:30 or 2:45. Keep in mind that the surface temp maps and control accumulated snowfall are located in the previous link. (up at the top) The "ECMWF EPS 50-Member Stamps" shows each individual ensemble member (pressure, precip, and snow). The pressure and precip maps go out to the full ensemble run, while the accumulated snowfall only goes out to day 10. The Euro Weeklies are in the right column, ran twice a week. They come out Monday evening and Thursday evening. That should get you started... Welcome to model addiction! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 The 'new' 00z GFS snowfall over the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 JoMo, you are awesome! I'm Pretty sure I am going to be quite addicted this winter. If this latest run were to verify, it would likely be pushing November snow records for a lot of people. It's going to be a long and sleepless 10 days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 00z Euro still has a system, it produces a lot of precip as well (mostly in NW AR and SW MO) but it's still really far out and the 500 MB map is a mess in the west with all sorts of energy so it will probably change. Something to watch though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 00z Euro still has a system, it produces a lot of precip as well (mostly in NW AR and SW MO) but it's still really far out and the 500 MB map is a mess in the west with all sorts of energy so it will probably change. Something to watch though. The surface reflection is pretty poor for an upper level system of that strength thanks to all of the antecedent suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 00z Euro still has a system, it produces a lot of precip as well (mostly in NW AR and SW MO) but it's still really far out and the 500 MB map is a mess in the west with all sorts of energy so it will probably change. Something to watch though. Definitely. There is a lot of 'potential' to see a pretty stormy November by the time all is said and done. Of interest too is the SE ridge I've seen develop lately as well. I figured early on that we would see it. Just really didn't have a clue we would see any of this stuff until mid-December! Fantastic stuff. I couldn't find the map you used. All I could find was the 8 day GFS. I'll have to keep looking around on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 I found it. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Thanks for keeping us updated. Heard the first hints of the s word on a couple of local stations yesterday. Gotta love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 12z Euro still has a system. It's still a mess in the west and I'd like to see a more consolidated system to our south, but as it stands now, there would be chances of some kind of frozen precip starting Fri/Sat the 14th/15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 12z Euro ensembles are cold (once it gets cold) through the end of the run and the control has a couple of southern systems. Blocking over the pole holds strong. Looking at the individual members 'snow' maps for the next 10 days. I'm going to set my 'snow' threshold at the 2" mark on the 'snow' map. So, 31 or so of the 51 members have 2+" on the 'snow' map for at least part of our area. Pretty much all but maybe 1 or 2 have some kind of 'snow' showing up but it would be under the 2" mark on the map. Keep in mind that the Euro definition of 'snow' is precip falling when surface temps are 32 degrees or less, so it could actually be freezing rain or sleet and the amounts would be different since the 'snow' map is a straight 10:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Interesting to say the least. I figured it was time to start seeing fantasy storms on the forecast models..But with the big time cold air commuting wow..I can see some support for a stormy pattern also.yay...and TSA... snowfall map already!? Really? Lets go then..⏩⏩ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Interesting to say the least. I figured it was time to start seeing fantasy storms on the forecast models..But with the big time cold air commuting wow..I can see some support for a stormy pattern also.yay...and TSA... snowfall map already!? Really? Lets go then..⏩⏩ Yup, I just saw the 'elevated' winter weather risk on Friday on Tulsa's decision support page. Things are getting interesting early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InstantWeatherMaps Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 12z Euro ensembles are cold (once it gets cold) through the end of the run and the control has a couple of southern systems. Blocking over the pole holds strong. Looking at the individual members 'snow' maps for the next 10 days. I'm going to set my 'snow' threshold at the 2" mark on the 'snow' map. So, 31 or so of the 51 members have 2+" on the 'snow' map for at least part of our area. Pretty much all but maybe 1 or 2 have some kind of 'snow' showing up but it would be under the 2" mark on the map. Keep in mind that the Euro definition of 'snow' is precip falling when surface temps are 32 degrees or less, so it could actually be freezing rain or sleet and the amounts would be different since the 'snow' map is a straight 10:1 ratio. Where do you have access to the Euro ens members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Where do you have access to the Euro ens members? Wxbell. Only mslp, precip, and total 'snow'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 9, 2014 Author Share Posted November 9, 2014 ECMWF deterministic models still looking consistent for 'snow' of around 2 inches beginning Friday in at least Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Waiting on the rest of it to load. Finally had a chance to listen to the Saturday summary and read some of JB'S writings from Saturday morning. Sounds like he has been temporarily humbled to say the least. I think if we do get to see a southeast ridge, (looks pretty likely at this point) blocking over the pole, and stronger blocking over the Atlantic/east coast, with the heightened activity coming from the Pacific I believe that we could end up in an awesome pattern this winter for heavy, slow moving snowstorms. This is my thinking right now. Not at all saying that this is going to happen but if I had to draw a favorable pattern up for snow for OK/AR/KS/MO that is how I would do it. It just looks to me like it could happen for a time at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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