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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2014-15 Discussion


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From December 5th

 

http://weather.kopn.org/wp/?p=1405

 

 

 

The Bering Sea has multiple systems rotating around an upper level low until the 12th of December when a system comes from the Southwest Bering Sea with a quick warming on the 13th with snow and cold to follow for sure.  The Central Missouri correlation continues the below normal end of December with an early January above normal start before a strong storm, with major snow implications, hits us on the 4th.
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12z Euro says we need to watch that system in the SW and the timing of when it comes out. Delivers some nice frozen precip this run. Too far out though. 

Agreed. The track is not the important part at this point. We can have fun watching it nail us or we can cry as it shifts north or south... but the important thing is having something to track. That's more than we can see we have had for a while. 

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Just noticed Wxbell has stratosphere maps from the Euro now. Pretty neat watching the warm air take over at 10 hpa over the next 10 days, also can see a split at 50 hpa with the stronger lobe being on our side of the globe to the east. 

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Raining here but it got colder a lot quicker than was predicted it seems. I think tulsa was saying it wasnt supposed to get this cold until around 5 or so. Would like to see some white, this rain lately blah blah blah lol.

Just rain or drizzle here. Might mix in a few sleet or snow flakes here before it pulls out. I just wish it would snow or turn sunny. I'm tired of rain and clouds.

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yeah, this was one case where the cold air beat the moisture for once.

 

12z Euro was pretty meh though, as it had the SW system coming out as mostly rain probably due to stale cold air and strong WAA, but we should still watch it in case temps are colder than forecast. The end of the run changed a bit as very frigid air dumped into the west and down the Plains, but nothing real exciting. We'll see what the ensembles say in about an hour and a half or so. 

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Have a WWA here until 6pm but its not doing anything but drizzly off and on. Is for benton and washington counties here in AR. I can give a detailed report of what went down cause we took a drive to the missouri/arkansas border for the hell of it.

 

At 3:30 right smack on the border it was a fairly moderate snow/sleet mix. Id say from about rogers southward though it was a fairly light rain. Right around 3 miles north of rogers is where that mix line was and the heavier precip. Was neat to see where the cutoff was!

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Yeah, the Euro has gone completely flip-floppy. That's a massive change from last nights run.

 

EDIT: I wonder if it's due to PV changes? There's massive warming at 10 hpa this run, and the 'split' and elongation still happens, around Day 5 or so now.

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Does anyone in our thread have an idea this far out of the nastiness of the winter storm coming in to our areas Thurs night thru roughly Sunday ??? does this look like a classic ice storm or  just a combo of snow , I p ????/ just curious since there haven't been any posts in the last day friends .. 

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Unfortunately, based upon the trends I see... looks like a cold rain for much of the duration. If the models are overestimating surface temps as the GFS sometimes tends to do then we may have some ice at the beginning of the mess. If you buy what the Canadian is selling you would be saying "What storm? Oh you mean the one that goes way, way south?" Tulsa seems to be sticking to its guns. If you look at their decision support page you can kind of get an idea of what they are thinking. 

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JoMo giving up? Ok time to throw the towel in for sure, winter cancel lol? I dont know, I'm depressed so far about it but eh well who knows for sure I guess we will see. Models are severely inconsistent it sounds like by what I am reading so far, everyone sounds lost and confused. Looks like another washout could be possible blah blah, more crappy rain! We need those cold temps from november to show back up :(

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JoMo giving up? Ok time to throw the towel in for sure, winter cancel lol? I dont know, I'm depressed so far about it but eh well who knows for sure I guess we will see. Models are severely inconsistent it sounds like by what I am reading so far, everyone sounds lost and confused. Looks like another washout could be possible blah blah, more crappy rain! We need those cold temps from november to show back up :(

 

Eh, weather happens. I'm just tired of chasing it. Some years you get a good winter, some years you don't. Analogs mean jack squat, computer model forecasts mean jack squat. Sometimes you end up in a good spot and have a good winter, other times you don't. Obviously nobody and not even our most advanced computer models can predict it. 

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Weeklies didn't look bad, or good. Probably an alternating type of pattern where Canada stays cold and we see cold air dumping down the east side of the Rockies, then it'll let up and possibly warm up before the next dump comes down. The deal will be, like always, timing a storm just right and far enough south to get it to snow. Something I have no confidence in. 

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