OKwx2K4 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Into oklahoma and Arkansas or just KS and MO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Into oklahoma and Arkansas or just KS and MO? Eh, it'll change... there was a large difference between last nights run and today's run. But parts of NW AR and NE OK would get at least something frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 12z Euro ensembles still look really cold around/past the 27th. The 12z Euro looks to be an outlier when compared to it's ensembles. I only received out to Day 13.5 on the surface temp and snow maps, but the cold is coming, now we just need to get a storm taking a good track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Weeklies are kind of meh after day 17 or so, Some warm 850's in there quite a few days, the control is awful for several days. Hopefully when we *finally* get into this colder pattern, it'll last long than 2 damn weeks, otherwise to hell with it, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I forgot about the weeklies until you mentioned it. I don't think it looks that bad. The control doesn't look pretty though, but I have my doubts on the troughing in the GOA showing up that early. I think the ridging is going to be tougher to budge and we will have more of an Aleutian low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I know it probably won't happen so I don't know why I'm saying it but I just looked at the 00z GFS and it looks nice, snowy and super cold for New Years. I hope it is for real this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 12z Operational GFS remaining steadfast with the pattern change after Christmas. Looks like it is locking in a broad, deep trough across the country, with the Plains being near the base of the trough. Around New Year's, the last few runs have been consistent in showing one or two storm systems moving through the arctic air, bringing winter weather to our area and the deep south. CPC analogs of the forecasted 500MB flow are still showing some big dates in the past for cold and storminess. Gotta say, I'm getting pretty excited for what we have upcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I get the feeling there's a large amount of spread on the Euro ensembles. The last couple of operational runs haven't been as cold, and the troughing has been farther east, but the ensemble still shows the west being cold. The 12z Euro ensemble looks good after it gets cold for more cold all throughout the run as the ridging in Alaska holds. However, the control run has more toughing in Alaska which screws with things. I guess we might have to wait until the 23rd or so before the models start calming down a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I see snow in the forecast for late tuesday sometime, not a big chance but seen it! Temps look to be balmy on christmas day still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 The 12z Euro is boring, there's no doubting that. Also warmer still. Anyway, about 55-60 for Christmas. At least I can watch the fantasy storm chances on the parallel GFS that will never happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Is it just me or does it feel like we're in a perpetual cycle of colder air arriving in 10-15 days? Around Thanksgiving all signs pointed to a flip around Dec 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 This is getting annoying.. One run of the Euro ensembles kind of stinks, and the next run looks pretty good. Lots of snow showing up during the next 15 days in the ensembles. Looks like positioning of where the coldest air sets up is going to make the difference as the Euro has it cold over the western 1/2 of the US with ridging over the eastern parts.... However, the Euro does have a western bias and things may end up farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Is it just me or does it feel like we're in a perpetual cycle of colder air arriving in 10-15 days? Around Thanksgiving all signs pointed to a flip around Dec 15. It was, but then it's been pretty stable for colder than normal air around the 26th or 27th, pending what happens with the Alaskan ridge. Today's OP didn't build it in as fast because it didn't clear out the storminess until a later time. This is the current stormy pattern going on up there, as you can see by all the blues showing up in the Gulf of Alaska... this results in downstream ridging over Canada which doesn't allow the cold air south: On the 23rd in prior runs, the ridge had established itself already and it was pretty strong, however in todays run, there's still some troughing trying to clear out.... We are watching that ridge west/southwest of Alaska (the red dot area) So by the 28th, the last of the trough has cleared out and the ridge has built into it's place, and at this time we're in a bit of ridging ahead of the system digging down from the NW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Local mets may be confused as well. I heard someone say cold air will come into play christmas night sometime, who knows at this point guess we will have to wait and see! Tuesday night says chance of rain or snow again like it did early this morning lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Anybody cancelling winter yet? This is like 2012 all over again. Garbage winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Anybody cancelling winter yet? This is like 2012 all over again. Garbage winter. It may eventually get here but not expecting anything significant IMO. Seems like its just not the year. We'll be darn lucky to get anywhere close to averages anywhere in this region this year, despite some of the forecasts and optimism. I always hate to see it turn very wintry and active in November seems like it gets hopes up and the rest of the winter is hard pressed to live up to expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 It may eventually get here but not expecting anything significant IMO. Seems like its just not the year. We'll be darn lucky to get anywhere close to averages anywhere in this region this year, despite some of the forecasts and optimism. I always hate to see it turn very wintry and active in November seems like it gets hopes up and the rest of the winter is hard pressed to live up to expectations. I just don't get how of all the Novembers I saw that recorded > trace snowfall, around 70-80 percent went climo or more on the season. Zero of the worst winters had snow in November. It should've been a virtual lock for climo snow imby. I guess there's a first time for everything but if it doesn't start snowing soon I will be looking ridiculous to a bunch of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I just don't get how of all the Novembers I saw that recorded > trace snowfall, around 70-80 percent went climo or more on the season. Zero of the worst winters had snow in November. It should've been a virtual lock for climo snow imby. I guess there's a first time for everything but if it doesn't start snowing soon I will be looking ridiculous to a bunch of people. Maybe we get lucky and get a great back-ended winter this yr by Feb into March. I guess patience is the way to go here as we continue to wait on a worthwhile pattern change to occur. Getting very frustrating, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 It may eventually get here but not expecting anything significant IMO. Seems like its just not the year. We'll be darn lucky to get anywhere close to averages anywhere in this region this year, despite some of the forecasts and optimism. I always hate to see it turn very wintry and active in November seems like it gets hopes up and the rest of the winter is hard pressed to live up to expectations. The weird thing was... all of the indicators were looking pretty good for a decent winter and it still may get decent in Jan and Feb. Dr. Cohen and his mythical SSW, which is tied to the snow advance index, which was really a good sign for winter this year keeps failing to show up, so he keeps pushing it back. A lot of other factors were looking fairly positive as well, but in the end, seasonal forecasting seems to just be throwing a dart at a board and hoping for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Maybe we get lucky and get a great back-ended winter this yr by Feb into March. I guess patience is the way to go here as we continue to wait on a worthwhile pattern change to occur. Getting very frustrating, though. I hope so. Anyway, I'm done ranting. Haha. Happy astronomical Winter everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The weird thing was... all of the indicators were looking pretty good for a decent winter and it still may get decent in Jan and Feb. Dr. Cohen and his mythical SSW, which is tied to the snow advance index, which was really a good sign for winter this year keeps failing to show up, so he keeps pushing it back. A lot of other factors were looking fairly positive as well, but in the end, seasonal forecasting seems to just be throwing a dart at a board and hoping for the best. Exactly. In the end it's certainly out of our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The weird thing was... all of the indicators were looking pretty good for a decent winter and it still may get decent in Jan and Feb. Dr. Cohen and his mythical SSW, which is tied to the snow advance index, which was really a good sign for winter this year keeps failing to show up, so he keeps pushing it back. A lot of other factors were looking fairly positive as well, but in the end, seasonal forecasting seems to just be throwing a dart at a board and hoping for the best. Also, I didn't see this post but what he said times 100. Still scratching my head. Precip almost every other day at 40 degrees is going to get old really quickly though. Now I really am done ranting! Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 euro ensembles has core of cold staying out in the plains and Rockies. It gets cool-ish here, then it starts getting warmer again in 12 days or so. Whatever, it's a damn joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The last 2 runs of the Euro have had a system worth watching next weekend for some snow/frozen on it's NW side for our area. It's almost in the 5 day window, so it may actually have a chance at happening.... Other than that, it's still burying a positive tilt trough in the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Maybe I'm a little too optimistic, but I actually feel pretty good about where we are headed the next week or two. Sure, we're not looking at an epic storm as it appears right now. But both the Euro and GFS show western ridging with a positively-tilted, SW to NE oriented trough digging into the SW early next week. From my experience during past events (as long as the trough doesn't bury itself too much and cut-off over the SW), that would funnel arctic air south down the spine of the Rockies, and would create an overriding situation with moisture being thrown back over the cold dome. Sure enough, the models are being pretty consistent that a good dose of Arctic air is headed for our region in 8-10 days. The finer details such as storm system timings and placements have still to be worked out. But I think there is some room for optimism here, and not doom and gloom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Maybe I'm a little too optimistic, but I actually feel pretty good about where we are headed the next week or two. Sure, we're not looking at an epic storm as it appears right now. But both the Euro and GFS show western ridging with a positively-tilted, SW to NE oriented trough digging into the SW early next week. From my experience during past events (as long as the trough doesn't bury itself too much and cut-off over the SW), that would funnel arctic air south down the spine of the Rockies, and would create an overriding situation with moisture being thrown back over the cold dome. Sure enough, the models are being pretty consistent that a good dose of Arctic air is headed for our region in 8-10 days. The finer details such as storm system timings and placements have still to be worked out. But I think there is some room for optimism here, and not doom and gloom. That is what I am seeing. I think us in the Texas thread are feeling pretty good about what is shaping up to be a really cold and likely snowy week around New Year's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Maybe I'm a little too optimistic, but I actually feel pretty good about where we are headed the next week or two. Sure, we're not looking at an epic storm as it appears right now. But both the Euro and GFS show western ridging with a positively-tilted, SW to NE oriented trough digging into the SW early next week. From my experience during past events (as long as the trough doesn't bury itself too much and cut-off over the SW), that would funnel arctic air south down the spine of the Rockies, and would create an overriding situation with moisture being thrown back over the cold dome. Sure enough, the models are being pretty consistent that a good dose of Arctic air is headed for our region in 8-10 days. The finer details such as storm system timings and placements have still to be worked out. But I think there is some room for optimism here, and not doom and gloom. Assuming the system becomes more neutrally tilted. As of right now, most of the precip is out ahead of any of the colder air, with just a bit on the far NW fringe overrunning. I think Texas has the better chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Weeklies are in.... They have troughing in the west and ridging in the east pretty much the entire run through Jan 22nd. This leads to 850 MB temps generally colder than normal in the west and warmer than normal in the east with the near normal temps hovering around our area, with some occasional bouts of above normal and below normal. I wouldn't say it's a bad look for this area as there's still ridging over Alaska and ridging at times over the top which should provide cold air. Hopefully the trough will end up farther east and we'll be on the cold side for some overrunning events like what natecast mentioned above. The control run is way too unstable looking for me to decipher. Edit: I guess you could say the only sustained cold will be in the west and maybe down the spine of the Rockies. Everywhere else will probably see their temps jump up and down depending on individual cold fronts or systems that can't be seen this far in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InstantWeatherMaps Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 WPC forecast (which is probably based off the SREFs) is interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I think I may need to give some of you the gift of tranquilizers for Christmas. All these downer and frantic winter cancel posts are far too premature. Hang tight and let's watch it play out before we get too depressed. After all, it just started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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