JoMo Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 For the system at the end of the week, most of the 12z Euro ensembles still have it, although the area most likely to experience wintry precip is from N-central AR and S-central MO, and points east. A couple still nail NW AR/SW MO. Longer range still looks cold. Control run is pretty wild looking and has some end of the world cold (off the -21 C below normal scale) showing up in large areas of Canada and the western US. Of course, knowing our luck, once the cold air gets here, there will be a lack of storm systems or something, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 For the system at the end of the week, most of the 12z Euro ensembles still have it, although the area most likely to experience wintry precip is from N-central AR and S-central MO, and points east. A couple still nail NW AR/SW MO. Longer range still looks cold. Control run is pretty wild looking and has some end of the world cold (off the -21 C below normal scale) showing up in large areas of Canada and the western US. Of course, knowing our luck, once the cold air gets here, there will be a lack of storm systems or something, lol Still no snow whatsoever for eastern Oklahoma though I guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Still no snow whatsoever for eastern Oklahoma though I guess? Probably a pretty low chance through the 24th or so. No idea after that since the models are shifting the pattern and there will be a lot of changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Cold without snow is such a waste. I'm cancelling winter til new years. Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Well I'm not enthused about the Weeklies after Jan 8th or so. It doesn't look terrible after that really, but the pattern change coming up with the ridge up into Alaska doesn't look like a pattern that 'locks in'. Looks cold after the pattern change until then though... control has a winter storm around New Years Eve. Edit: It does build an Aleutian low back... as long as that stays far enough west, then it'll be just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Well I'm not enthused about the Weeklies after Jan 8th or so. It doesn't look terrible after that really, but the pattern change coming up with the ridge up into Alaska doesn't look like a pattern that 'locks in'. Looks cold after the pattern change until then though... control has a winter storm around New Years Eve. Edit: It does build an Aleutian low back... as long as that stays far enough west, then it'll be just fine. I guess the odds of getting a decent low under that cold high are probably slim and none right? Maybe a gulf low if the cold is far enough west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I guess the odds of getting a decent low under that cold high are probably slim and none right? Maybe a gulf low if the cold is far enough west. What time period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Once the real cold gets here. December 25th+ range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Once the real cold gets here. December 25th+ range. Oh, that's more of an ensemble/operational question as we get closer as the weeklies are really only good for picking out the longwave pattern and as you get farther out they become less reliable and more diffuse as the spread between the individual ensemble members increases. As an example, after the pattern change there's lower heights than normal located over the west, lower heights generally means colder, stormier conditions. However, picking out exactly where a storm will be is tough to do as the ensemble is just the mean of all the individual members. After Jan 7th or so for our area, the lower heights are no longer over/near our area. It's more of a neutral look to very slightly above normal. It's diffuse and not overly strong looking... so that could mean that 30 of the ensemble members have a ridge over our area at that time, and 20 have a trough with a storm system. It could even mean that 35 members have a weak trough and 15 members have a very strong ridge. But due to being averaged out, it shows the heights to be just above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Oh, that's more of an ensemble/operational question as we get closer as the weeklies are really only good for picking out the longwave pattern and as you get farther out they become less reliable and more diffuse as the spread between the individual ensemble members increases. As an example, after the pattern change there's lower heights than normal located over the west, lower heights generally means colder, stormier conditions. However, picking out exactly where a storm will be is tough to do as the ensemble is just the mean of all the individual members. After Jan 7th or so for our area, the lower heights are no longer over/near our area. It's more of a neutral look to very slightly above normal. It's diffuse and not overly strong looking... so that could mean that 30 of the ensemble members have a ridge over our area at that time, and 20 have a trough with a storm system. It could even mean that 35 members have a weak trough and 15 members have a very strong ridge. But due to being averaged out, it shows the heights to be just above normal. Awesome. Thank you. As long as there's a period of storminess out ahead of the trough that's good hopefully. Still it seems like we have a pretty narrow window to get a snowstorm down here before things go back to iffy again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Nice cold day out today. Probably some light snowfall over KS/MO with the first wave Wed night/Thurs. 12z Euro has it near 60 degrees for the area for Christmas with a bit of ridging due to a large trough carving out in the west with colder air dropping south from western Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 This pattern has a strong resemblance to October's pattern wouldn't you say? All the way down to the ridge over us before the cold gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 12z Euro ensembles still have the cold air invading around the 27th. There's signs of a weak SE ridge trying to poke in over the SE, things look interesting between Christmas and New Years at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 This pattern has a strong resemblance to October's pattern wouldn't you say? All the way down to the ridge over us before the cold gets here. Assuming Doug Heady is right and it's a 62 day pattern.... This is the 12z GFS for Christmas morning: This would be Christmas 62 days ago: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Wow. You can't argue with the similarities there. The storm in the northeast is dead on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Well, that's an insane looking Euro run for 2 runs in a row. Nothing like a 966 MB low sitting over the Great Lakes in December. Another large trough digging into the southwest with Arctic air flooding down the Plains. Looks to arrive on about the 26th on this run. It might get interesting towards the 27th..... All of this subject to change greatly due to the pattern transition though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Well, that's an insane looking Euro run for 2 runs in a row. Nothing like a 966 MB low sitting over the Great Lakes in December. Another large trough digging into the southwest with Arctic air flooding down the Plains. Looks to arrive on about the 26th on this run. It might get interesting towards the 27th..... All of this subject to change greatly due to the pattern transition though. Now you're just messing with me because I don't have the euro anymore. Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Now you're just messing with me because I don't have the euro anymore. Haha. Not sure if we'll get a big storm out of it though, but we are definitely moving towards a colder pattern. I'd expect some flip flopping on the models until it becomes better established. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Winter Wx Advisory for much of MO. Have had some sleet here this afternoon. It has accumulated on the cars but nowhere else yet. We are sitting at 33º. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Wichita seems to be a bit schizophrenic in the p-type as of recently. snow freezing drizzle sleet snow&sleet KICT 172302Z 10004KT 1 1/4SM -SN TWR VIS 1 1/2KICT 172253Z -SN BR FZDZB13E20PLE11B20E28SNB20KICT 172228Z 1 1/2SM -SN FZDZB13E20PLE11B20E28SNB20KICT 172222Z -SNPL FZDZB13E20PLE11B20SNB20KICT 172213Z -FZDZ FZDZB13PLE11KICT 172200Z -PLKICT 172153Z -PL UPB29E32SNB03E29PLB22KICT 172129Z -PL SNB03E29PLB22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 It probably depends on the intensity of the precip that is falling. Heavier reflectivity gets the sleet and snow and when it's lighter, they get the freezing drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Wichita seems to be a bit schizophrenic in the p-type as of recently. snow freezing drizzle sleet snow&sleet KICT 172302Z 10004KT 1 1/4SM -SN TWR VIS 1 1/2 KICT 172253Z -SN BR FZDZB13E20PLE11B20E28SNB20 KICT 172228Z 1 1/2SM -SN FZDZB13E20PLE11B20E28SNB20 KICT 172222Z -SNPL FZDZB13E20PLE11B20SNB20 KICT 172213Z -FZDZ FZDZB13PLE11 KICT 172200Z -PL KICT 172153Z -PL UPB29E32SNB03E29PLB22 KICT 172129Z -PL SNB03E29PLB22 We lost cloud ice as the precip waned. All snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Oh yeah, forgot to add that I had a nice accumulation of sleet on my truck earlier today. Still periodically sleeting but mostly just rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Oh yeah, forgot to add that I had a nice accumulation of sleet on my truck earlier today. Still periodically sleeting but mostly just rain. Indeed. Similar here. Heavy sleet moved though this morning and then melted with rain and sleet mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Indeed. Similar here. Heavy sleet moved though this morning and then melted with rain and sleet mix. Yeah, saw some frozen precipitation here on the north side of OKC, too. It came down during a heavier shower so my first thought was that it was small hail (and it may well have been) but temps were in the mid-30s so I am more inclined to think that we just had some serious dynamic cooling during that heavier shower that allowed sleet to mix in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Christmas evening miracle for some on the GFS? PGFS has it a bit later: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Seriously! We would like to see some snow here in Tulsa!! It goes South North East and West of us!! Bahumbug! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 00z Euro is still deciding what it wants to do with the big storm in the east. It's still dropping a big trough/low in the west as well. This run is going to kick out a snowstorm across NE/IA the day after Christmas. It has Christmas colder around our area with highs around 40-50 across the area before warming Christmas night ahead of the storm system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cody Ervin Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Goooooooodness. Yeah first time back on the forums in a long time. Just checked the EURO/GFS/CMC and my oh my I'll be watching these two systems like a mother bird watches her young. Nice cold burst with flurries in the central/northern US where I am from the 23rd ish. This system merges with a more potent costal system setting up out east. And man does that trough look like a doozie. Late GFS trending more towards EURO with low smacking the far interior northeast and north of the Great Lakes region, but will be interesting to see if this shifts any further south. Hoping for a nice colorado low for Nebraska to get in on some action for Christmas/after Christmas time period. Think its been since 2009 or 2010 since we've had a decent white Christmas and or New Years. Will be fun to watch these two evolve over the next couple weeks. For now going to just look at that jet evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 12z Euro is coming south, has a winterish storm for our area Christmas night into the day after. I'm sure it'll change next run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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