dan123 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 It's nice to see they didn't do away with the 'new' GFS going insane during pattern changes like the old GFS. Can you provide a link too where I can find this. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Can you provide a link too where I can find this. Thanks http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 00z Euro still has a frozen precip event with the system we have been watching next week. This run was a primarily KS/MO and NE AR event, with the biggest threat over SE MO and far NE AR. Here's the ridge building southwest of Alaska and combining forces with the ridge over the Pacific off the west coast on the evening of Dec 23rd. The 'pattern change' we've been waiting for in order to get colder air. Arctic air should start building in Western Canada after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 EURO ensembles finished through Christmas now looking OK. A few more members coming in with a more 'correct' looking precip swath from the type of low we are supposed to get but it was only about 8 of them. I'm assuming the control run is figuring for rain over eastern Eastern Oklahoma and NWA? Not really sure. I'm going to ride the mean which looks more plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Ewww ice on the 12z GFS, ( PGFS says just rain) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 The euro for next weekend is a disaster. Unless you live in TN and the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Yep, the system takes too long to get it's act together and is east of here. Post pattern change Euro... needs to hurry up with the cold air generation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Yeah, no cold air thru Christmas...jesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 no storm next weekend on the ensembles either. Damn noreaster. This is going to get real old real fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Ok, so let's break it down after the 12z Euro ensembles today....... Pattern change is still on schedule for the 23rd. This is roughly when the troughing in the GOA gets replaced by ridging. It's going to take a day or two to build up colder than normal air since it's been warmer than normal up in Canada. This colder than normal air is going to push east and reach us roughly on Sat the 27th. Individual storm threats are hard to pick out at this time and will change. Looking nearer term with the storm threat later this week.... There are some farther west ensemble members when it comes to that system. The operational run was a hit for TN/KY area.... The individual members vary from SE OK, to NW AR, to SE MO, to what looks to be nothing at all, so it still needs watched for frozen precip on it's NW edge, wherever that may be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 The euro for next weekend is a disaster. Unless you live in TN and the east coast. Yeah the 12z Euro has the low near Baton Rouge, no snow in Missouri. (Friday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 no storm next weekend on the ensembles either. Damn noreaster. This is going to get real old real fast. At least 15 of the 12z Euro individual members hits St. Louis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Now that you are talking ensembles, JoMo, I counted 7 GEFS members that have snow for St. Louis at 144 (maybe more if you count +/- a few hours). That's a decent sign for southern Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 You folks in Missouri should get to have some fun in the next couple of weeks. It's appearing that folks like me in Oklahoma and Arkansas are going to have to wait til the pattern gets set up. New Years maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Blah this is depressing, I know I know its going to get cold but man its almost christmas lol. I hope its at least semi cold by then! I hate whining but jeeez not use to this kind of warmth this time of year. Sorry, belly aching is over again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I let my subscription to Weatherbell go today. Maybe it will snow since I did. Haha. I'll probably be renewing in about 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 So tonights run is going to be wall to wall snow. Thanks for the sacrifice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Fairly large tornado near Harper, KS this evening. Fairly rare for December, but those Low CAPE-High Shear setups can sometimes spin something up on the plains. http://youtu.be/5jwFbmK4XH8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 So tonights run is going to be wall to wall snow. Thanks for the sacrifice. Yup. It's a guarantee now. :-) I'm going to read so much good stuff on here over the next few days that I will be forced to renew it. Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Fairly large tornado near Harper, KS this evening. Fairly rare for December, but those Low CAPE-High Shear setups can sometimes spin something up on the plains. http://youtu.be/5jwFbmK4XH8 Fairly rare for sure. Kansas only has 7 December tornadoes on record from 1950-2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Yup. It's a guarantee now. :-) I'm going to read so much good stuff on here over the next few days that I will be forced to renew it. Haha. Sacrifice is appreciated greatly. Quite a squall moving through SW MO right now... at least in the vein that it is overperforming what I expected. The tornado near Harper is a great example of how these more wintry severe setups can really catch some off guard and are harder to really pinpoint ahead of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 True. Pretty stout line for December. I think we had something similar in December 2009. It is memorable because of the tornado in Cincinnati, AR. Edit: it was 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Sacrifice is appreciated greatly. Quite a squall moving through SW MO right now... at least in the vein that it is overperforming what I expected. The tornado near Harper is a great example of how these more wintry severe setups can really catch some off guard and are harder to really pinpoint ahead of time. Very very very heavy rain, not much else. Think I heard one clap of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 00z Euro is still running, but it has next weeks system farther west, hitting central AR to NE AR and on east from there. Parts of NW AR and southern MO would get in on at least something possibly frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The overnight CPC analog guidance for the D+8 and D+11 day period is chock-full of big cold and snow dates/years: 1978, 1979, 1989 (record cold), and 2009 (Christmas Eve blizzard in OKC). It will be fun to see where this pattern is headed after Christmas, which I believe is the most likely time for the big pattern shift being advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Weekend is nothing for MO unless you live in the bootheel..maybe not even there. Be lucky to have anything up this way at all. Bleh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Fairly rare for sure. Kansas only has 7 December tornadoes on record from 1950-2013. Huh...I never would have guessed that. And assuming Oklahoma's lone tornado report is all there is then they should still be on track to break the record for the fewest tornadoes in a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Yep, 12z Euro has a little frozen in MO/KS with the initial wave on Wed night/Thurs but takes the bigger system farther south and is warmer. From there it looks like another system will pass to our south and there's a system over the northern Plains. Pretty confused look that will change due to all the energy involved. Pattern change is still on schedule and might even be a day earlier. 12z Euro goes out to Christmas morning, and at that time has temps a bit below normal in our area. There's a tongue of much colder than normal air nosing down from central Canada into the northern Plains........ Ensembles/Weeklies later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The ECMWF enesemble runs do not support the operational run. In fact, the op run is an outlier compared to the ensemble mean and many of the individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.