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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2014-15 Discussion


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00z Euro still has a frozen precip event with the system we have been watching next week. This run was a primarily KS/MO and NE AR event, with the biggest threat over SE MO and far NE AR. 

 

Here's the ridge building southwest of Alaska and combining forces with the ridge over the Pacific off the west coast on the evening of Dec 23rd. The 'pattern change' we've been waiting for in order to get colder air. Arctic air should start building in Western Canada after this.

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

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EURO ensembles finished through Christmas now looking OK. A few more members coming in with a more 'correct' looking precip swath from the type of low we are supposed to get but it was only about 8 of them. I'm assuming the control run is figuring for rain over eastern Eastern Oklahoma and NWA? Not really sure. I'm going to ride the mean which looks more plausible.

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Ok, so let's break it down after the 12z Euro ensembles today.......

 

Pattern change is still on schedule for the 23rd. This is roughly when the troughing in the GOA gets replaced by ridging.  It's going to take a day or two to build up colder than normal air since it's been warmer than normal up in Canada. This colder than normal air is going to push east and reach us roughly on Sat the 27th. Individual storm threats are hard to pick out at this time and will change.

 

Looking nearer term with the storm threat later this week....

 

There are some farther west ensemble members when it comes to that system. The operational run was a hit for TN/KY area.... The individual members vary from SE OK, to NW AR, to SE MO, to what looks to be nothing at all, so it still needs watched for frozen precip on it's NW edge, wherever that may be.

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Yup. It's a guarantee now. :-) I'm going to read so much good stuff on here over the next few days that I will be forced to renew it. Haha.

Sacrifice is appreciated greatly. :)

 

Quite a squall moving through SW MO right now... at least in the vein that it is overperforming what I expected. The tornado near Harper is a great example of how these more wintry severe setups can really catch some off guard and are harder to really pinpoint ahead of time. 

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Sacrifice is appreciated greatly. :)

 

Quite a squall moving through SW MO right now... at least in the vein that it is overperforming what I expected. The tornado near Harper is a great example of how these more wintry severe setups can really catch some off guard and are harder to really pinpoint ahead of time. 

 

Very very very heavy rain, not much else. Think I heard one clap of thunder. 

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The overnight CPC analog guidance for the D+8 and D+11 day period is chock-full of big cold and snow dates/years: 1978, 1979, 1989 (record cold), and 2009 (Christmas Eve blizzard in OKC).  It will be fun to see where this pattern is headed after Christmas, which I believe is the most likely time for the big pattern shift being advertised.

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Fairly rare for sure.  Kansas only has 7 December tornadoes on record from 1950-2013.

 

Huh...I never would have guessed that. And assuming Oklahoma's lone tornado report is all there is then they should still be on track to break the record for the fewest tornadoes in a year.

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Yep, 12z Euro has a little frozen in MO/KS with the initial wave on Wed night/Thurs but takes the bigger system farther south and is warmer. 

 

From there it looks like another system will pass to our south and there's a system over the northern Plains. Pretty confused look that will change due to all the energy involved. Pattern change is still on schedule and might even be a day earlier. 12z Euro goes out to Christmas morning, and at that time has temps a bit below normal in our area. There's a tongue of much colder than normal air nosing down from central Canada into the northern Plains........ 

 

Ensembles/Weeklies later today.

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