OKwx2K4 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 12z Euro goes big snowy with the second system starting Friday the 19th. Yeah, I was going to ask about that. Is the .125° the operational euro or not? It looks like a pretty awesome storm on there and the control has it but the ensembles are barely showing anything except maybe 3 or 4 members. What's up with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Yeah, I was going to ask about that. Is the .125° the operational euro or not? It looks like a pretty awesome storm on there and the control has it but the ensembles are barely showing anything except maybe 3 or 4 members. What's up with that? Yeah the 0.125 is the Hires Euro. 12z Control and Ensembles don't finish until around 2:45 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Yeah the 0.125 is the Hires Euro. 12z Control and Ensembles don't finish until around 2:45 or so. Ok. Thanks. I was just curious. It h as been showing some pretty good snow for a little while now. Just need it to go a little further south and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 12z Euro control run was snowy as well (farther SW). Ensembles have a faster evolution towards the pattern change. I think this is a great looking run. Weeklies in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 I think so too. Starting to look like we may have a great storm to begin calendar winter with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Is the Canadian model still showing a nice snow map like you posted yesterday? Sing it with me- It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Nope, the Canadian changed. The Euro will change as well, still a long way away. It's a shame the individual ensemble members had some kind of issue today. I would have liked to see how many had next weeks system and what they did with it. Things are definitely looking better, all the ensembles from the 3 major models are pointing towards the same general pattern and what we want to see to get colder air in here, it still looks like an active southern stream. I'm pretty excited to see the weeklies and pretty interested in the Christmas to New Years period as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Some nice trends today. We'll all have something to track soon. Flizzard Alert Scale: 3.5/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Looks like the weeklies are having the same problem as the individual ensemble members..nothin' there. Edit..on there now, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Looks like the weeklies are having the same problem as the individual ensemble members..nothin' there. I know But from what I gather from reading on other forums, Week 3 and 4 look really good with ridging up into Alaska or NW Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 They have updated now Jomo and they look promising. Wow at a couple blockbuster storms the Control has, lmao! Be rainers though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 I know But from what I gather from reading on other forums, Week 3 and 4 look really good with ridging up into Alaska or NW Canada. That look almost always means really cold for us. Should be in line with the SSW event recently. Looks like we may be headed for a solidly negative AO going into January and if the euro is to be believed at this time, the cold will fall on the right side of the globe this time. Maybe a trough west/ridge east type scenario. Who knows. Looks like it will be a fun stretch though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Thanks Snowman99....Just looking at the weeklies now.... It's nice to see a return of the blue colors. Starting around the 23rd or 24th, 850 MB temps are below normal almost the entire run. It does look more like a western trough kind of setup the farther we go out in time. There's ridging over Alaska and over the top that's apparent,which is great. The control run does keep the active look. yay winter is saved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Man, western trough with that type of ridging would spell all sorts of winter fun in these parts. Different than the consistent western ridge/eastern trough look last Winter that kept us in the icebox, but mainly dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Finally got to see the rest of the 12z stuff. One word. AWESOME. Hope 0z looks just as great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 yeah I saw the 12z Euro individual ensemble members filled in. Many of them have snow close to our area over the next 15 days. 00z GEM has snow back across KS in the next 10 days, which was much different than it's 12z run. EDIT: 00z Euro still has the storm next week, but it has shifted farther north into Kansas Some areas may end up getting dumped on in Nebraska, NW KS and Colorado from both systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Next weekend's system is looking warm and rainy. Ugh. Still just no cold air available for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 12z Euro looks like mostly a really cold rain on Thursday and then possibly a winter storm on Friday. Absolutely goes crazy with the system and piles a lot of snow on our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Those are some of the best looking ensembles I've seen yet! Keep em coming! I know over a foot of snow probably won't happen but man it would be fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 12z Euro control run looks similar to the OP for next Fridayish. Still a bit of spread in the individual ensemble members, but many of them do show 'snow' around the area. The high number of individual ensemble members showing a snow covered Plains makes temps below normal for a few days after the system passes. Looks like the cold air starts building over the west and western Canada by around Christmas. The ridge that leads to the 'pattern change' builds into the NE Pacific and GOA around the 23rd, so it is getting closer and not constantly staying in the 15 day time range. Not quite sure it's going to be as far west at the Euro thinks as the Euro does have a west bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 I'm wondering why the GFS pretty much shows nothing still though. Kinda discouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 NWS Tulsa doesn't seem to be buying anything frozen for late next week per their AFD this afternoon. No doubt models are struggling with all the energy and pattern adjustment. But I'm just going to ride the EURO while I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 NWS Tulsa, OKC, Springfield not biting on the Euro solution. Tulsa said cold air remains bottled up north BUT that confidence in any one solution is extremely low. No mention of winter weather so they pretty much rode the fence which is typical and understandable this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Well, I'm glad to see that the parallel GFS finally has a storm over Oklahoma Arkansas and Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Everything is still on schedule according to the 00z Euro ensemble. NE PAC/GOA ridging starts entering the picture around the 23rd. Below normal air starts building in the west and NW Canada shortly after that. Anything we get before the colder air reaches us will be a bonus and will have to work with stale 'cool' air. Still interested in the time between Christmas and New Years for something interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 12z GFS is close with the system next week. Just something to keep an eye on, as I think the best frozen chances will remain to our east and north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 12z Euro ensembles are looking great. When the Ensemble mean shows a massive ridge with little spread up into Alaska that's a pretty good signal that the Arctic will be visiting the US, it probably won't reach here until after Christmas, but the issue will be how far east it makes it and how fast it makes it here. Still a pretty considerable spread in the ensemble members over the next 10 days on where any frozen precip will be over the central US. Fun times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 More or less a train wreck still. Hoping they can start narrowing things down soon. I hate that every run it seems like the snow is shrinking and moving east. I'm glad that all of the models now see cold air in the longer ranges. I take it all as mixed news for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 It's nice to see they didn't do away with the 'new' GFS going insane during pattern changes like the old GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 From the QPF disco... PLAINS/MIDWEST/MS VALLEY TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS... CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING THE TRAJECTORY AND STRUCTURE OF THE SMALL SCALE UPPER LOW EXITING THE SOUTHWEST REMAINS PRESENT WITHIN THE GUIDANCE...WITH CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY LIKELY AFFECTING THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INTO THE CYCLONE...AND WELL AS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINING WITH THE INITIAL CONDITIONS OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST CANADA (NUNAVUT) THAT ARE LIKELY TO INFLUENCE THE PATH OF THE LOW CROSSING THE PLAINS. GENERALLY EXCLUDED THE 12Z NAM DUE TO ITS DISTANT PROXIMITY FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS BOTH DAYS...WHILE A PREFERRED SOLUTION CLOSEST TO THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS PREFERRED WITH SOME INCLUSION OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z PARALLEL GFS USED FOR DETAIL. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THESE ADJUSTMENTS FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEAN IS LOW GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO CONVERGE UPON A COMMON SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE FINAL RESULT IS A NARROW AXIS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 INCH FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN....WHILE AND SECONDARY AND LIKELY BROADER AREA OF 0.1 TO 0.5 INCHES EXTENDS SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE TROUGH'S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. REFER TO THE QPFHSD FOR MORE INFORMATION ON WINTER WEATHER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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