OKwx2K4 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 On my phone and don't have time to post images, but the 12z GFS now shows the bowling ball moving across TX scenario the Euro has shown for next Sun/Mon. Looks like mainly rain at this point from the temp profile I looked at, but it wouldn't take much colder to offer a good dump snow on someone. Nice to have something to track now. Yeah. As of right now the snow looks to dump on 'no man's land' west Texas. Given the trend for air masses to be colder than forecast at such long leads, one would question whether or not the storm lays down snow further east than presently forecast. Just my thoughts at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Looks like a Nino year with storm systems cutting under the ridging. Just need to add a bit colder air and we are good to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I guess the euro listened to me. Now has the large swath of deep snow out in west Texas/extreme western Oklahoma and also has a new line of 2 in accumulations running the I-44 corridor up into Missouri. I still think it could go a little further east in future runs but I'm not going to nitpick that far out. Just happy for a storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 A lot of the 00z Euro ensembles now have some type of frozen precip on the NW side of that system, unfortunately it's mostly out in W KS and CO at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Just finished looping the latest op GFS (12z). What a barrage of upper level systems. If this keeps up for the next couple of months we are in for a lot of fun in this forum. Doubtful about the amount of cold air in regards to snow opportunities for our region Sun/Mon. I've seen storms such as this produce snow with surface temps a good deal above freezing (obviously with little to no accums). Most likely areas for this right now are the TX high plains, and western OK/KS. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Just finished looping the latest op GFS (12z). What a barrage of upper level systems. If this keeps up for the next couple of months we are in for a lot of fun in this forum. Doubtful about the amount of cold air in regards to snow opportunities for our region Sun/Mon. I've seen storms such as this produce snow with surface temps a good deal above freezing (obviously with little to no accums). Most likely areas for this right now are the TX high plains, and western OK/KS. Time will tell. Yeah. If it were January 8th instead of December 8th I would be beyond happy with this setup. I'm hoping it's not a case of large multi-day rainstorms this month then a complete lack of storms in January and February. I know many have said that these types of patterns typically last 6-8 weeks so here's to hoping. A storm per week in January would be insane with the right amount of cold air around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 UK Seasonal is still cold for the JFM period, with conditions a bit drier than normal from the looks of things. 12z Euro is very blocky/cutoff looking in the extended. Time to wait on the ensembles, and later this afternoon/evening the weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 JoMo, How did the 12z Euro look for the weekend storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 JoMo, How did the 12z Euro look for the weekend storm? The one Sun-Tuesish? Difficult to say really. Most of it is a cold rain it looks like, but on the NW fringe there may be some snow. It's a pretty good track, but just too warm. If we could get that northern stream system to phase or something it would be a different look, but it's still too far off and it'll change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 12z GFS said snowcover Christmas week. (haha) Lock it in! I wonder what 18z says? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 12z Euro ensembles continued the El Nino look with southern systems. (control run was blech though) Weeklies should be out here shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Weeklies... Nothing unexpected in the Weeklies. Continued storm track favored over the southern US, Aleutian low with systems diving into the west coast and across the southern US kind of look. Appears the coldest air will remain on the other side of the globe though. But since we're getting into the coldest part of the year, it will just depend on timing and track for one of these systems to produce snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Weeklies... Nothing unexpected in the Weeklies. Continued storm track favored over the southern US, Aleutian low with systems diving into the west coast and across the southern US kind of look. Appears the coldest air will remain on the other side of the globe though. But since we're getting into the coldest part of the year, it will just depend on timing and track for one of these systems to produce snow. That's kinda disappointing. A lot of good all the Siberian snow did if the -AO locks all the cold on the other side of the globe. When you get into the 'meh' temperature area in winter you start thinking about the threat of ice somewhere down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Southern Rockies/ southern Plains storm, which is about a week away: the ECMWF (12z) showed heavy rain for Dallas-OKC area. Hopefully this is a good signal that this area will see at least 0.50" in this time frame. I am sure we're all hoping that rain/snow this winter will hit the long term drought areas of the south/southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Only a billion more runs and that Christmas Eve snow shown on the 00z GFS is here! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Only a billion more runs and that Christmas Eve snow shown on the 00z GFS is here! lol Haha. Lock it in man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I'll be spending Christmas week in southeastern Iowa with the wife's family. I'm hopeful for some snow up that way once the pattern becomes more active after mid-month. Southeastern Iowa may be the snow hole of the state, but they certainly fare a lot better than Tulsa this time of the year! Definitely looking forward to some more activity to track with you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Looks like if you want snow for the upcoming system, you're going to have to drive to E Colorado and NW Kansas. Maybe we can get that Christmas Eve snow on the GFS..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Well the 12z Euro Ensemble wasn't great looking today after it looked decent last night. If you believe in the repeating pattern type of forecasting, then Doug Heady believes we are in a 62 day pattern, which means the cold and such that came in November will be back around as we reach mid-January. Probably around Jan 11th... I hope we don't have to wait that long as I am pretty disappointed in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Well the 12z Euro Ensemble wasn't great looking today after it looked decent last night. If you believe in the repeating pattern type of forecasting, then Doug Heady believes we are in a 62 day pattern, which means the cold and such that came in November will be back around as we reach mid-January. Probably around Jan 11th... I hope we don't have to wait that long as I am pretty disappointed in December. Yeah. I'm going to have to agree with you on being disappointed. Seems like there was a lot of anticipation and build up for just an average looking and crappy month. Then again though. The transition to really feeling like autumn was slow/late but sort of exciting once it got here. Maybe winter is just following suit. Who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I still have some hope that the end of the month will bring us back to a more active pattern, even if it is more wet. I just don't like quiet stretches of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Man things went from pretty cold in november to downright warm in december. I'm just not use to this at all! I really hope its at least cold on christmas, I know we are all pretty far south but this is terrible lol. This is one of the warmest decembers I can ever remember for sure so far. Ok my belly aching and griping is over, for now haha. Hope you all are doing good!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Man things went from pretty cold in november to downright warm in december. I'm just not use to this at all! I really hope its at least cold on christmas, I know we are all pretty far south but this is terrible lol. This is one of the warmest decembers I can ever remember for sure so far. Ok my belly aching and griping is over, for now haha. Hope you all are doing good!!! I can remember a few that started off as lukewarm and just uninteresting overall 2007 is a pretty good example as well as 2008. I remember wearing shorts and pitching horseshoes the day after Christmas that year. Of course we all remember the end of January 09 and all the ice that followed at the end of the month. I remember that year pretty well because I forecast the heaviest ice to within 8 miles 3 days before it happened. Anyway, I ramble slightly. Haha. But it's not as bad of a December as it could be. :-) If we still finish with average to -1°F temps by the time it (Dec) is over and Jan-Feb finish as far below as I think they will, we will still be looking at a decent winter in my opinion as long as it snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Come on Canada! (the snow in our area is from a 2nd system) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 12z Euro has the system too, just cold enough for some kind of frozen on the NW side of the low. This is the 240 Euro anomalies, you can see the low parked over SE AR and NE LA on this run. In order to get a better look in the long range or a 'pattern change', We need the "501" low west of Alaska to either sit there or to retrograde, which will build the ridge in the west, which will cut off the Pacific flow into Canada and result in downstream troughing and colder air. If we can get that, plus split flow bringing in systems, we would be looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Come on Canada! (the snow in our area is from a 2nd system) Euro (125°) says snow over the elevation areas of Eastern Oklahoma into NWA and Missouri on day 9-10. Some places 6 inches or more. Also coming in colder this run for the area. Come on snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Also, I was thinking a bit, JoMo brought up a recurring 62 day pattern. I would be quite interested to see if we don't get a repeat of the storms of November in January. That would be almost a promise of near 14 days of seeing some kind of snow on the ground. Also, while I'm thinking about it as well, the overall pattern does have a lot of similarities to early October at the moment minus the large undercutting storms off the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 I guess in Niño years I have to remember that when Tulsa says "Mostly Cloudy" it really means "It's going to rain". Haha. Nice rain showers tonight though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 New JMA weekly/monthly or whatever you want to call it is out today. Week 2 the changes start happening and by week 3-4, the ridging is into Alaska and western Canada/the west. Temps below normal over roughly over the southeast half of the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 12z Euro goes big snowy with the second system starting Friday the 19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.