JoMo Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Had some sleet pellets and snow flurries as a band of moisture moved through earlier today. Not much, but nice to see it. Keeps hope for more wintry weather alive. I am actually looking forward to some warmer weather this weekend so I can get the Christmas lights up. Burn the heretic!! You know we don't hope for warm in the winter months, man! I'll probably use the time to mow the leaves up in my yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzarkWXguy Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 You all may not recognize me by my username but I'm a regular here. (I had to change it) Just wanted to wish all of my winter weather friends a very happy Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving! The warmup is still coming as we head into December. The MJO is currently going through it's 'warm' phases, but both the Euro/GEFS (bias corrected) are predicting it to hit the cold phases by about mid-December. The stratospheric warmth continues. Weeklies are just coming in now.... They suggest that the outlook (for colder weather) continues to improve as we head towards mid-Dec. Finally seeing a trough show up over the central US again as we head towards Christmas. Control run has a lot of cold fronts once we get past mid-Dec. So things are looking up, just have to wait out the warmth that's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Happy Thanksgiving everyone, hope you all had a great day! Not looking forward to this warmth!!! Its almost december and nearly 70 degrees this weekend predicted ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Interesting that we are still hanging on to the potential of some freezing drizzle or light freezing rain late Sunday into Monday morning. Either way, the brief cold snap Monday will be in sharp contrast to the weekend warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Winter Weather advisory out for freezing drizzle for parts of the area. Dec still looks pretty meh through mid-month. We get the Aleutian low back, but it's too strong and too far east so it floods the US with Pacific air, the good thing is that it will screw with the polar vortex and hopefully it will settle down during the latter half of the month so we can get winter started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving! The warmup is still coming as we head into December. The MJO is currently going through it's 'warm' phases, but both the Euro/GEFS (bias corrected) are predicting it to hit the cold phases by about mid-December. The stratospheric warmth continues. Weeklies are just coming in now.... They suggest that the outlook (for colder weather) continues to improve as we head towards mid-Dec. Finally seeing a trough show up over the central US again as we head towards Christmas. Control run has a lot of cold fronts once we get past mid-Dec. So things are looking up, just have to wait out the warmth that's coming. Indeed! http://weather.kopn.org/wp/?p=1374 http://weather.kopn.org/wp/?p=1380 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Anybody have any good news to share? Our little forum here is dead. Reading through the other forums it still sounds like the next 2 weeks will be fairly boring. Going from 70 yesterday to 25 today was a shock to the system. Lots of people playing bumper cars on I-49 this morning due to the little bit of freezing drizzle/fz rain this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Anybody have any good news to share? Our little forum here is dead. Reading through the other forums it still sounds like the next 2 weeks will be fairly boring. Going from 70 yesterday to 25 today was a shock to the system. Lots of people playing bumper cars on I-49 this morning due to the little bit of freezing drizzle/fz rain this morning. Weeklies come out in a few hours. For the next few weeks, it looks boring winter weather wise. It doesn't look as warm as it once did, so that's always good this time of year. (Actually below normal for a bit next week) But overall, everyone seems to be waiting until Mid-Late December for something to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Weeklies just finished up... Missing the last 2 days, so it stops at Dec 30th. Things are still looking better after mid-month, so say after Dec 16th-Dec 17th or so. The higher heights over Canada is going to move north towards the pole with time and higher heights pretty much encircles the pole. Our part of the world will come under increasing troughing as we get past mid-month. The constant lower heights over the NE Pacific and GOA look weaker and it retrogrades to the west somewhat. We'll have to make sure that area isn't stronger or farther east than what the ensembles show. Overall, better looking once we get past mid-month still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 According to the 12z Euro, much of the SE 1/2 of the US is actually pretty seasonable to below normal despite the torch being shown across Canada from next Tues to Friday. We'll probably be on the western edge of the colder air, as just out across central KS and OK it might be above normal while it's below normal to the East. The 12z ensemble continue to slowly push the higher heights over Canada farther north with time. I'm actually pretty curious to see what happens from about the 20th on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Mike V from WSI tweeted this a bit ago. https://twitter.com/WSI_Energy/status/539907856712364033 This is basically what the Euro Weeklies above showed as we head into late Dec. High heights over the pole and an active storm track near us = fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 We're getting to where we need to go, just going to take some time. The Euro Ensembles are following the weeklies pretty much. Anyone remember winter 2002-2003? Dec 2002 had a warm spell. New SST CA is out. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201411/carealtime.html Overall, not much change from the prior months. This is JFM temps: The JFM 500 MB map shows the Aleutian low, ridging over the top, and the active southern stream. This is what the Weeklies are starting to show at the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 New monthly JMA is out. Week 3 & 4 are looking pretty good. Aleutian low has settled back where it *should* be. Ridge pumped up in the west. Looks like an active southern stream across the southern part of the US. Very El-Ninolike. Now to see if the Euro weeklies continue their forecast this afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I know I rarely post in here, but thank you JoMo for keeping this regional thread going with the updates you are providing. After going through OKC climate data for historical winters, I have found it is very, very, rare, if not unheard of, to have constant cold from Dec-Feb in our region. Hopefully the analogs that others have pointed out in other subforums of Dec warmth/JF cold plays out this winter as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I know I rarely post in here, but thank you JoMo for keeping this regional thread going with the updates you are providing. After going through OKC climate data for historical winters, I have found it is very, very, rare, if not unheard of, to have constant cold from Dec-Feb in our region. Hopefully the analogs that others have pointed out in other subforums of Dec warmth/JF cold plays out this winter as well. It gets pretty lonely in here when the weather is boring, so thanks for posting. It seems like El Nino years are slow starters more often than not. We hit our peak cold from late Dec into mid-January around these parts. I hope that's when we see a favorable pattern for storm systems if we don't have Arctic cold available. Our snow usually doesn't stick around very long this far south, so it doesn't have to be real cold, just cold enough to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Weeklies are in.... Looks like winter will arrive at the end of the month. Those higher heights begin to pull north into northern Canada and the Arctic and clear our area around Dec 22nd... They remain across the pole area the rest of the run (Jan 4th).... General troughing develops over the south.(our area as well and stays there through the end of the run) The colder than normal 850 MB temps show up during that time as well. The control run is frigid during that time. Happy days will return.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Thanks for the update JoMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 1 year ago today we were getting a pretty good snowfall. I wish that was happening again this year. Still sounds like patience is the name of the game for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Hello everyone. Do you mind if I join your group? I have been studying weather for a long time as a hobby and I enjoy discussing it as well. I'm looking forward to the upcoming/current winter season although it looks like it may be a slow starter except for the November snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Hello everyone. Do you mind if I join your group? I have been studying weather for a long time as a hobby and I enjoy discussing it as well. I'm looking forward to the upcoming/current winter season although it looks like it may be a slow starter except for the November snow. Welcome OkWx! The more the merrier. Weather has been a lifelong hobby for me as well. Where in OK do you live? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 00z Euro Ensembles are looking better at the very end. Still following the path of the weeklies. Now the end of the 06z GFS is getting interesting in the long range as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Welcome OkWx! The more the merrier. Weather has been a lifelong hobby for me as well. Where in OK do you live? Thanks. I have been in a few other weather communities but this one seems to be about the best one from what I have seen. I'm from eastern Oklahoma near Tahlequah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 The change shown in the ensembles around Christmas or a little before looks promising. The key in our region for a storm around Christmas will be the mean position of the trough, and whether we get dry NW flow, or whether something can dig to our SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 The change shown in the ensembles around Christmas or a little before looks promising. The key in our region for a storm around Christmas will be the mean position of the trough, and whether we get dry NW flow, or whether something can dig to our SW. Yep, but prior to that, the 12z Euro says you may want to watch the NW side of that strong low sitting over TX in about 9-10 days. Looks like a marginal type situation but weird things happen under strong upper lows this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 12z Euro ensembles continue to look better and better as we head towards the 20th-21st on the overall pattern. It does cool down a bit before that though, and there is a classic Nino (below normal temps in the southern US) showing up. Some of the individual ensemble members show frozen precip on the NW side of that upper low (i laughed at the 20+ inch snow output in this area) expected in 8-10 days somewhere over the southern US. A couple other members have frozen precip after that. I think we need to keep a close eye on that Day 8-10 system for a "surprise" on the NW side of it, however the location is not certain yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 12z Euro ensembles continue to look better and better as we head towards the 20th-21st on the overall pattern. It does cool down a bit before that though, and there is a classic Nino (below normal temps in the southern US) showing up. Some of the individual ensemble members show frozen precip on the NW side of that upper low (i laughed at the 20+ inch snow output in this area) expected in 8-10 days somewhere over the southern US. A couple other members have frozen precip after that. I think we need to keep a close eye on that Day 8-10 system for a "surprise" on the NW side of it, however the location is not certain yet. Sounds good! Even if the system in 8-10 fails to provide a good snow, just the fact we are getting southern stream systems showing up is a big plus. With our weather acting more like a typical El Niño, strap in once we start tapping into colder air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Sounds good! Even if the system in 8-10 fails to provide a good snow, just the fact we are getting southern stream systems showing up is a big plus. With our weather acting more like a typical El Niño, strap in once we start tapping into colder air. Yeah, it's really iffy on that system. Temps would likely be really close throughout the atmosphere as it's currently modeled. It would probably come down to dynamics and maybe even night vs day for that to happen. It's at least something to watch while we wait on the longer range changes to get here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 It appears that the system in question is looking better with each model run. I so very much hope that the prolonged storminess over the south and eastern US that is expected by month's end verifies. As of right now it looks like all roads point to cold and snow again by new years. Bastardi on weatherbell seems to think it's a sort of dream scenario as we roll into the Christmas timeframe. I hope he is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 On my phone and don't have time to post images, but the 12z GFS now shows the bowling ball moving across TX scenario the Euro has shown for next Sun/Mon. Looks like mainly rain at this point from the temp profile I looked at, but it wouldn't take much colder to offer a good dump snow on someone. Nice to have something to track now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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