wildweatherman179 Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 EURO seems to be wanting to give us something else to track for Thanksgiving week. That's a long way off but the signal has been there for a day or 2 I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 Anybody want to give any thoughts on when we might actually see a nicely developed low down here for the first time this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Anybody want to give any thoughts on when we might actually see a nicely developed low down here for the first time this winter? This weekend from the looks of things. Strong storm system.....Probably a severe threat for somewhere. It's going to feel like summer when compared to what we've been experiencing lately. It's looking a lot better as we get past the next 7 days or so as you can see the ridging returning off the west coast in the GOA/Alaska and it may make it over the top eventually. This should promote cold air generation in Canada which will drop south again. Have to see what the Ensembles and Weeklies show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 This weekend from the looks of things. Strong storm system.....Probably a severe threat for somewhere. It's going to feel like summer when compared to what we've been experiencing lately. It's looking a lot better as we get past the next 7 days or so as you can see the ridging returning off the west coast in the GOA/Alaska and it may make it over the top eventually. This should promote cold air generation in Canada which will drop south again. Have to see what the Ensembles and Weeklies show. Sorry, I wasn't specific enough. I meant a wintry type low not a wash out. I saw the one you're talking about. Too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Weeklies go out to Dec 18th..... Starting around Nov 29th... There's troughing across pretty much all of the US and Canada. The general look after that is troughing over the west or off the west coast and Alaska and into the southern US on occasion and ridging near the Hudson Bay/East US. This says to me that the coldest air will be over the western and southern/south central US. Some blocking shows up from time to time and the trough disappears from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 18, 2014 Author Share Posted November 18, 2014 Weeklies go out to Dec 18th..... Starting around Nov 29th... There's troughing across pretty much all of the US and Canada. The general look after that is troughing over the west or off the west coast and Alaska and into the southern US on occasion and ridging near the Hudson Bay/East US. This says to me that the coldest air will be over the western and southern/south central US. Some blocking shows up from time to time and the trough disappears from time to time. Sweet. I won't have to worry much about my forecast busting then. :-) The east based cold look was almost 100 percent typhoon activity and even still the core of the cold started over west central Canada. It wasn't the 'real' pattern so to speak. I think the euro is finally starting to make sense. At least in my eyes anyway. I may be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Set a new all-time November record low last night. It got down to 6 degrees, which beat the old record of 7 degrees, set back in 1976. The 00z ensembles last night were pretty ugly (warm) as we head into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Set a new all-time November record low last night. It got down to 6 degrees, which beat the old record of 7 degrees, set back in 1976. The 00z ensembles last night were pretty ugly (warm) as we head into December. 9 degrees this morning. I never have seen it that cold before Thanksgiving. Sure was a treat to see. But honestly I wouldn't mind a nice warm up for a I'll bit either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 12z Euro right now looks like a warm up, followed by rain (might be severe in AR), followed by a cool down, followed by a warm up/rain and possible cold frontal passage on Thanksgiving. Pretty potent ridge developing in the GOA, so it's going to drop a trough down into the SW and that's going to be slow to move east with ridging over the east. Very cold air flooding down the Rockies/Plains at the end of the run with the trough still in the SW, so it looks like there will be snow breaking behind the front back in the cold air. Interesting solution but I'm not trusting any model outside of 5 days right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 18, 2014 Author Share Posted November 18, 2014 It looks to me just from the looks of stratospheric temps that we had better enjoy the last few weak warm ups that we are going to get. (That I was recently griping about, ha) December may bring historic weather to our region this year. Maybe some stuff that we only get to see once in our lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 It looks to me just from the looks of stratospheric temps that we had better enjoy the last few weak warm ups that we are going to get. (That I was recently griping about, ha) December may bring historic weather to our region this year. Maybe some stuff that we only get to see once in our lives. Eh, I dunno. I'd like to see it actually start happening. A few years ago, everyone chased the big SSW event that was shown on the extended range models that never actually happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 19, 2014 Author Share Posted November 19, 2014 Eh, I dunno. I'd like to see it actually start happening. A few years ago, everyone chased the big SSW event that was shown on the extended range models that never actually happened. What year was that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 What year was that? I don't recall, probably one of the bad years where it was warm, but everyone seems to hope for it every year though and it *should* happen this year, at least the SAI would point to it happening. But looking at the charts on CPC, the warming that occurred a few weeks ago has subsided and it looks pretty chilly up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 19, 2014 Author Share Posted November 19, 2014 I don't recall, probably one of the bad years where it was warm, but everyone seems to hope for it every year though and it *should* happen this year, at least the SAI would point to it happening. But looking at the charts on CPC, the warming that occurred a few weeks ago has subsided and it looks pretty chilly up there. I think it was 11-12 you were referring to. I think the problem was that a lot of people missed the qbo state which, if I'm not mistaken, in negative phase allows the PV to split. It stayed positive the whole time. I could be wrong but I think that was the worst year along with 2012-13 in my recent memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Any good news from the 12z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 12z Euro was a bit late today. The general warmup and rain this weekend followed by a shot of cooler air, followed by another warmup due to a system digging into the SW remains the same. At some point around Thanksgiving a very strong cold front will pass through. (we'll have to see what happens around that time) 12z GGEM is also dumping Arctic air in around Thanksgiving. Last nights Euro Ensemble and Control for Day 11+ were about as far apart as you can get. The control was much colder and stormier while the ensembles were warmer. EDIT: Today's 12z Euro ensembles/control were much closer together. Looks like a crappy start to Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 KSPR's Kevin Lighty issued his winter forecast Monday night. He is going for below normal temps and above average snowfall (20-25"). KOAM's Doug Heady releases his forecast tonight. Since switching to satellite I don't get KOAM anymore, but will be interested to read what his thoughts are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Doug Heady says: Below normal temps.... 20-30" of snow... 1-2 ice events. (we average 17" of snow in Joplin) And something about 15 more cold air surges.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Thanks JoMo, 15 more surges of cold air! Wow. Sounds like a fun winter is in store. The great part is that it isn't even officially winter yet and we've already had a MAJOR arctic outbreak and a minor storm to track. On a different note, if you haven't checked out the Upstate NY forum and the Lake Effect Snow thread you should do so. The pictures are astonishing. Amazing and dangerous both at the same time and 2-3 more feet possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 If only the 00z Euro would keep that same look for the next 8 days or so..... That would be an incredible winter storm for us right after Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 20, 2014 Author Share Posted November 20, 2014 I'll take one of those please! I think that would be a storm everyone would be happy with. I guess the euro has a fantasy mode too. Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Darn, 12z Euro loses the big storm.... however it has one heck of an Arctic front pushing through on Thanksgiving with some snow behind it. The JMA came out today. The 2nd week looks pretty meh, but the 3rd-4th week are looking better, so this means the 'warmup' being shown on the Euro ensembles probably won't stick around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Weeklies are out.... They show ridging taking over much of the US by Dec 2nd that gradually moves more ENE with time. Troughing from Alaska down the west coast. This moves around a bit but generally persists through the end of the run on Dec 21st. Things do start looking more blocky at the pole as early as the end of the first week in Dec. There are also signs from about Dec 10th on that there's more troughing from the SW across the southern US. The control run is largely in disagreement with the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Euro has been flip flopping a bit. 12z Euro...The general look remains the same as previous looks with rain this weekend, followed by a brief cool down, followed by a colder airmass on Thanksgiving and a zonal/ridging look with temps warming up by Fri/Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Still looks like we will warm up as we head into early December. The models have been a little farther south with the cold air and a bit slower to warm it up, but it still looks like it will eventually happen. Here comes the expected strat warm surge. You can see the first one back in October, shortly before we got cold, now you can see the second one building at the end of the loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 That strat warm better make it's way on this side or we're screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 That strat warm better make it's way on this side or we're screwed. It should. The last one started exactly like that if I'm not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yeah, the strat image above updated an additional day and you can really see the warmth exploding. I'm not sure on the perfect location for it, as long as it weakens/deforms/splits the PV which would allow the jet to buckle and the -AO. I think it's generally following the expected pattern that would be seen with a high SAI like we had back in October, but it will probably be mid-late Dec before we feel the impact and that's when we are expected to go back to a more wintry pattern. (at least that is what happened with the other high SAI years) 12z Euro wasn't as far south with the cold air this run and has next Sun/Mon/Tues highs around 70 to the lower 70's. Thanksgiving still looks cool to seasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Weeklies today don't look too bad from mid-Dec on as there looks to be more blocking at the pole. Doesn't look like we'll be able to shake the Alaska/NE Pacific trough though as it sticks around. Ultimately, we want it to be farther west, and by the end of the run around Christmas it does look like it's backing west. We'll see what happens but I think at some point, if the strat warming continues, it's going to change things around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Had some sleet pellets and snow flurries as a band of moisture moved through earlier today. Not much, but nice to see it. Keeps hope for more wintry weather alive. I am actually looking forward to some warmer weather this weekend so I can get the Christmas lights up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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