wildweatherman179 Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 I just figured I would start this up. We had a great thread last year. Hope for the same this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 20, 2014 Author Share Posted October 20, 2014 JoMo, any new model updates or news to speak of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 JoMo, any new model updates or news to speak of? I'll post them in the central US pre-winter thread and we'll save this thread for when a winter storm is expected to hit our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 20, 2014 Author Share Posted October 20, 2014 Sounds good man. That will keep things a little more neat in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 First frost/freeze looking more likely on Sat morning for MO, and maybe NW AR especially.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 Yeah. Depending on the GFS run you take, could make 32 in my neighborhood. If so, it would be pretty much right on schedule with climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Wake up time for Spot... the winds of winter close in. Haha.. .. but indeed looking like at least a frost is possible even here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 Welcome back Spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Wake up time for Spot... the winds of winter close in. Haha.. .. but indeed looking like at least a frost is possible even here Back from Spring/Summer hibernation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Back from Spring/Summer hibernation? Indeed. Cant wait to see what this winter has for us all. After reading and studying long range forecasts for the winter.... could be interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 FIRST OFFICIAL FREEZE WATCH! FXUS64 KTSA 292020 AFDTSA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 320 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 .DISCUSSION... AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS HAS PROVIDED THE REGION WITH A NEAR PERFECT AUTUMN DAY. SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RULE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DRY. THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS COLD FRONT WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL SEASON SO FAR. BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY PREVAILS. A HARD FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THEREFORE...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERLY PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS SOME DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE BECOMES INCORPORATED INTO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END ON WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA PUTTING AND END TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Hello Winter Weather Watching Buddies!! Coming out of my summer hibernation!! Hoping for a rockin' winter for our area!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 Hello Winter Weather Watching Buddies!! Coming out of my summer hibernation!! Hoping for a rockin' winter for our area!! Welcome back from hibernation. Things are looking pretty amazing so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 1, 2014 Author Share Posted November 1, 2014 Just dropped to freezing officially for the first time. If that doesn't get someone in the mood for winter, I don't know what will. Happy November 1st everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 2, 2014 Author Share Posted November 2, 2014 43 degrees and sleeting here. First time I've ever saw it sleet at such a high surface temp. I have heard of it happening before but this is a new first for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 12z Euro has fantasy snow or ice showing up at the end of the run on Tues night into Wed Nov 12th. Primarily NW AR and SW MO. Ridge still hooking over the top and back down Alaska and the west coast. Cold look for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 2, 2014 Author Share Posted November 2, 2014 Yeah. As of right now, temps are pretty marginal but it very well could get colder by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Monster Aleutian storm along with Typhoon Nuri are responsible for that big Central U.S. trough in the long range Euro. Looks like an active upcoming pattern. Day 8 upper air analogs...a couple of these dates were big producers across the Southern Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Hey all. Good to be back! Hit 21º Saturday morning on my weather station. Looks like an interesting November. Look forward to following it along with each of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 3, 2014 Author Share Posted November 3, 2014 Hey all. Good to be back! Hit 21º Saturday morning on my weather station. Looks like an interesting November. Look forward to following it along with each of you. Welcome back. If I didn't know any better I would still say that the euro has snow potential for 12z Nov 12th. It looks like a classic Eastern Oklahoma/Northwest Arkansas snow maker in my opinion. Not saying it will happen but I think it bears watching. Thanks for the tropical tidbits links JoMo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Hey Wx 24/7. I can't believe we have stuff to track already here in November. Anyone checked the 00z GFS? There's a couple of possible wintry systems to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 3, 2014 Author Share Posted November 3, 2014 Hey Wx 24/7. I can't believe we have stuff to track already here in November. Anyone checked the 00z GFS? There's a couple of possible wintry systems to watch. I can't find a fully loaded 00z gfs yet but I was seeing some hints that we could have some fun between the 18z gfs and using the free euro stuff I found. I think it's going to be a fun month. Pretty chilly and wintry after the 12th or so. Where can I get the 00z already loaded? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 I can't find a fully loaded 00z gfs yet but I was seeing some hints that we could have some fun between the 18z gfs and using the free euro stuff I found. I think it's going to be a fun month. Pretty chilly and wintry after the 12th or so. Where can I get the 00z already loaded? MAG site always updates pretty fast. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 3, 2014 Author Share Posted November 3, 2014 Thanks for another good link. I like the looks of that pattern. Looks like your area could get a measurable snow out of this pattern. May be a little hard to come by down this way. The 12th/13th has my interest. I'd like to see a little more moisture on the cold side of it but I'll take any measurable snow in November. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InstantWeatherMaps Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Unreal storm in the Aleutians on the latest GFS... 916.6mb!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 3, 2014 Author Share Posted November 3, 2014 Wow. Definitely a decent series of storms in the fantasy portion of the 00z GFS. I guess when I looked earlier it hadn't loaded all the way just yet. Will be looking forward to tracking something if they verify. Other than that, looks pretty darn cold for mid-November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 4, 2014 Author Share Posted November 4, 2014 Fantasy storm is back for the 14th and another on for the 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Hi, everybody! Good to be officially back for the winter (although I've been snooping around for weeks). Thanks to those of you who contribute model data, etc. You're the bee's knees. I'm a weenie for anamolous cold, so I'm stoked to see just how cold it'll be next week. A little snow would be awesome, but not getting too excited just yet. Anyway, here's to a long, snowy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 I wouldn't be surprised to see some light flurry activity in the Arctic cold next week. So far nothing showing up that would bring any accumulation but some snow showers or flurries might be possible from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 I'd take anything over a trace this month just for statistical significance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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