IsentropicLift Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 The coastal that is forming develops a westward pivot and motion later on tonight that rotates through LI and NYC. Euro now agrees as well with the NAM and GFS. I agree that the rain will eventually get here, I just don't think it will be what the coast saw this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 I agree that the rain will eventually get here, I just don't think it will be what the coast saw this morning. Coast is favored for tonight for sure. From Eastern NJ through LI. Models have NE 40+mph winds and 1" of rain or more in some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 The latest HRRR might be too far West, we shall see. It now wants to focus on the batch developing offshore further West and takes it right over NYC and into NNJ over the next four hours. Would be a steady heavy rain by dusk if true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 12z Euro has 40-45mph wind gusts for NYC and 45+mph wind gusts for LI for later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 12z Euro has 40-45mph wind gusts for NYC and 45+mph wind gusts for LI for later this evening. Sneaky wind advisory with the afternoon packages? What about interior NNJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 JFK is gusting to 35 right now. I would think that long island might see a wind advisory but I doubt anyone else does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Good winds here already, gusts to 30-35 in the last few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Winds are already gusting over 30mph at EWR, JFK, ISP and FRG. Wind advisories might definitely be needed this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Anyone notice that both the 12z NAM and GFS have 40+ mph wind gusts this afternoon and night for the coastal sections? Even 50+mph gusts for Eastern LI. The 12z 4km WRF and HRRR are showing near 50kt surface winds around the twin forks tonight. This is likely with convection though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Winds have increased dramatically here, looks like we are getting right into the tightest gradient. Should be a wet and windy one thru early tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 on KNYC radar the stuff in LI sound looks pretty weak Do you know how much rain you've gotten so far since you are fairly close to my loacation? I seem to be at about .40", but want to make sure my guage isn't messed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Picked up 0.46" of rain so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Do you know how much rain you've gotten so far since you are fairly close to my loacation? I seem to be at about .40", but want to make sure my guage isn't messed up. I haven't measured but sounds about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Is that a twister (waterspout) out there in the ocean? http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0Q-1-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Do you know how much rain you've gotten so far since you are fairly close to my loacation? I seem to be at about .40", but want to make sure my guage isn't messed up.Checking wunderground, that looks about right for your area... heavier amounts fell to your east with 0.80" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 ^^^That looks pretty tornadic to me, but I'm no expert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Currently, 40 knot easterly winds with 3-4' waves inside the LI Sound. Coupled with a new moon period, I'm wondering how there isn't a coastal flood advisory for parts of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 925mb winds off 18z RAP: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Currently, 40 knot easterly winds with 3-4' waves inside the LI Sound. Coupled with a new moon period, I'm wondering how there isn't a coastal flood advisory for parts of the area. Just as I typed this, a Gale Warning was just issued for the entire LI Sound. Curious to see about coastal flooding now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Block Island gust 43mph. Buzzard Bay 45mph gust Buoys south of LI gusting 47mph to 51mph. Sustained wind 42mph gust 51mph at buoy 44066 http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=44066 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Nice batch near Peekskill starting to rotate SW towards NNJ with embedded heavy downpours. This is the area that near Bridgeport earlier that I was referencing. Dopplar radar estimates are increasing to > 0.50" per hour with that cluster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 .09" since midnight for a storm total of .51". Expecting another 0.50-0.75". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 I got 1.05inch so far in Bensonhurst Brooklyn, raw , windy and some light rain falling again now, feels like fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Uh, do nor'easters usually come with multiple instances of waterspouts/offshore rotation? Quoting OKX from this morning, thank goodness that's over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Looks pretty awesome on radar. Like it has a convective core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Looks like the short range models are on track as very intense bands are explanding offshore and move wwd. Another round of heavy rain and wind looks to be a lock tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 If you do a 24 frame loop with short duration between frames on OKX on Pykl3 it almost looks like an eyewall rotating around a central low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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