IsentropicLift Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 It looks like the rain set up a bit farther north than modeled no? I thought southern NJ should have gotten a piece of this precip as well (maybe not extreme southern NJ.) The modeling has been terrible so far. I can't say that it was unexpected giving the convective nature of everything. Even the latest HRRR is way too far south. Hope it can jog another 50 miles or so further North. Bit of a buzz kill here with black skies and drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Winds picking up now as well. Gusting to 20's at Long Island stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Nice bands rotating in from the ocean, looks like Monmouth county is getting pummeled with torrential downpours. Even though the intensity of the storms have weakened, it looks to pour for several hours at least. Pummeled is right. Been thundering here since about 4am. Up to 0.98" of rain. Getting slammed. 55F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 JFK just went passed 1" total. By way of contrast, CPK is at .68" total. Gusts in city are 20mph and 25mph @JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 HRRR continues to indicated that the main band will be south of the city within 90 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Been on the edge of the steadier rain here in Essex county. south of Long beach and east of point pleasant (over the waters), it shows that 10"+ has fallen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Pummeled is right. Been thundering here since about 4am. Up to 0.98" of rain. Getting slammed. 55F. No end in sight either, some intense echos look like they will make it onshore in the next 45 minutes or so. Somebody is gonna see over 4 inches of rain with this I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Thunder earlier with 0.75" here so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 That's a really impressive band of heavy rain /inv trof ?/ and there was an area of very impressive rotation about 25 miles off the coast of New Jersey just 90 minutes ago. The circulation in that area could've produced something memorable if it had drifted a bit farther west. What we'll see in the next few hours is the band and low level moisture tightening up around the developing sfc low, so this area of heavy rain will drift southwest and you'll start to see radar returns moving from NE to SW after lunch time. I think the short term models did a really good job of picking up on the idea that the heavy rain would stay away from the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Yup, that looks to be about it for me as far as this band is concerned. Got really nasty and windy in Ramsey for about 15 minutes and now it's just breezy with drizzle. I doubt I picked up anything more than a few hundreths of an inch here and even less at home given the strong subsidence over northern NJ. Oh well, hopefully I can get in on the next band tonight when the low begins coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Well the 12z NAM throws interior folks a bone by taking the band and rotating it back towards NNJ after midnight tonight. It's not a tremendous amount of rain but it's still >1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 The RAP brings heavy rain back in much later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 The RAP brings heavy rain back in much later today So does the 12z NAM, pretty much around 2-3AM and only lasting for 2 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 So does the 12z NAM, pretty much around 2-3AM and only lasting for 2 hours or so. NAM is over 12 hours of light to heavy rain for NYC and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 NAM is over 12 hours of light to heavy rain for NYC and LI. 8pm: 11pm: 2am: 8am tomorrow morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 8pm: 11pm: 2am: 8am tomorrow morning: I should have been more specific, I was referring to the 4k version. Brings rain into NYC around 04z and it's gone before 08z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Better version of the 4k NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 The 12z GFS pushes a similar wave of precip back over the area late tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 The 12z GFS pushes a similar wave of precip back over the area late tonight. Yes I was just posting about that in the New England forum. The GFS is well over an inch of rain from TTN east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 I'd like to see something like this in late January...hopefully there will be enough cold air for snow...this reminds me of 2002 when most of the precipitation in the fall came from a coastal system or noreaster... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Anyone notice that both the 12z NAM and GFS have 40+ mph wind gusts this afternoon and night for the coastal sections? Even 50+mph gusts for Eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Anyone notice that both the 12z NAM and GFS have 40+ mph wind gusts this afternoon and night for the coastal sections? Even 50+mph gusts for Eastern LI. Must be from the pressure gradient since the low itself isn't that strong at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Looks like our next band of rain is going to be from what is currently coming through Long Island Sound. The HRRR rotates this through the LHV and then into NJ by 5-6PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 It's getting quite gusty I noticed. We shall see what happens later but I assume there will be some more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Looks like our next band of rain is going to be from what is currently coming through Long Island Sound. The HRRR rotates this through the LHV and then into NJ by 5-6PM. That batch looks pretty weak..I think the area of precip south of LI if it holds together could bring heavier rain to the rest of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 That batch looks pretty weak..I think the area of precip south of LI if it holds together could bring heavier rain to the rest of the area This. And not for a few hours for western sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 That batch looks pretty weak..I think the area of precip south of LI if it holds together could bring heavier rain to the rest of the area It looks weak on KDIX. Not sure which radar site you looked at. The stuff south of Long Island if it holds together should go more towards Monmouth County and miss me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 And if you're talking about the heavy echoes south of the twin forks, the HRRR takes that up into eastern Long Island and southern New England. Eventually a piece of that makes it this far West in a much weakend state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 And if you're talking about the heavy echoes south of the twin forks, the HRRR takes that up into eastern Long Island and southern New England. Eventually a piece of that makes it this far East in a much weakend state. The coastal that is forming develops a westward pivot and motion later on tonight that rotates through LI and NYC. Euro now agrees as well with the NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 It looks weak on KDIX. Not sure which radar site you looked at. The stuff south of Long Island if it holds together should go more towards Monmouth County and miss me. on KNYC radar the stuff in LI sound looks pretty weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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