bluewave Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 12z Euro OP That looks like some of the recent Monmouth winter storm specials. Too bad that isn't snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 That looks like some of the recent Monmouth winter storm specials. Too bad that isn't snow. Yeh when I the euros evolution of a 1007 mb surface retrograde from a S on Montauk to a 997 center back towards Asbury you can't help but say dam wish this was Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Going to be a NJ special on the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Going to be a NNJ special on the 18z NAM. Not really. Looks like the Euro so far through hour 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Not really. Looks like the Euro so far through hour 45. Through 48 hours it's basically nothing from NYC east and 0.25"+ for most of New Jersey away from the city, but a heavy batch is incoming from the South at that hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 The difference is that on the 12z run at 21z Wednesday the heaviest was up towards the CT coast where on the 18z run it's on the DE beaches at the same hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Overall pretty big run to run differences. The lack of model continuity continues with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Overall pretty big run to run differences. The lack of model continuity continues with the NAM. Euro's rain for the coast came after hour 54. NAM appears to be taking a similar approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 NYC is under 0.50" through 72 hours with more than double that 50 miles to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Both the 18z NAM and 12z ECMWF show potent 5H vort rotating around the ULL over LI/NYC around 3z Thursday, enhancing another band of heavy rain off the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Both the 18z NAM and 12z ECMWF show potent 5H vort rotating around the ULL over LI/NYC around 3z Thursday, enhancing another band of heavy rain off the ocean. Yes, mostly goes north into the LHV and then extreme NNJ. This is still going to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx?northeast Way less dry here this year. Especially with the July deluge. We had a pretty dry period between that and more recently but after last year it had minor effects on local vegetation. I was just up in Rhode Island and it is suuuuuper dry up there on par with what we had here last year. This coming event looks a little on the lame side. Winds on the coast meh. I'll take some rain of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 20, 2014 Author Share Posted October 20, 2014 18z gfs just caved towards the euro. 1.00+ for the NYC metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 18z gfs just caved towards the euro. 1.00+ for the NYC metro areaIt's still the most progressive model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 SREF is wetter again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Both the Gfs and Nam increased QPF especially from central jersey south. The Nam shows two areas of high QPF, one toward Maine and the other in southern NJ. So this system could be a little bit more significant than I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 21, 2014 Author Share Posted October 21, 2014 Euro and gfs last night all had Phl and NYC over a inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 21, 2014 Author Share Posted October 21, 2014 06z nam is also over a inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 06z nam is also over a inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Inverted trough feature on the 9z SREF mean over SNJ tomorrow morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Southern NJ just gets dumped on by the 12z NAM. 5.2" bullseye showing up 50 miles east of ACY with most of the Jersey coast 3"+ just through 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Little Fujiwhara action upcoming with the upcoming disturbances. Will be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Southern NJ just gets dumped on by the 12z NAM. 5.2" bullseye showing up 50 miles east of ACY with most of the Jersey coast 3"+ just through 36 hours. NAM is a CWNJ dry hole. Everyone else gets over .75": Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 The placement of that heavy band could easily be wrong. Most models had it over the LHV going into last night, now more towards SNJ. It's going to come down to nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Thunderstorms firing right over I-95. 12z GFS has an enhanced area of rain today from about KMMU eastward to the Suffolk County line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 12z GFS is a good soaker for pretty much the whole state of New Jersey. More expansive with the precip and a bit further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 21, 2014 Author Share Posted October 21, 2014 Just had some pretty heavy downpours roll through here in Holmdel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Last week I thought this whole week would be cloudy and dreary but yesterday and today so far have been really nice, sunny and we clear out by Friday so most of this week will be salvaged and will also average above normal (68F right now). If I had to bet I'd say my area gets less than an inch with all of this and southern NJ is this region's jackpot zone at possibly 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Sunny and warm...still working in shorts...so all that noise yet most get one day of ordinary rain tomorrow and thats about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 21, 2014 Author Share Posted October 21, 2014 Grass is still green and growing here...late end to the growing season this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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