WeatherFox Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 This would have been an incredible long duration winter storm. Here comes another batch from the north. I can only hope to see stuff like this in a couple months. True, but we know that with winter storms we need to get everything lined up , placed perfectly and synced. Storm track, intensity, speed, moisture availability, position of cold High Pressure, mesoscale banding, dryslotting, rain/snow line, etc. Anyway, I wish you all good luck as I now live in Florida and will miss those lovely snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Pouring rain here, looks to be a very wet day. The 11z HRRR maintains showers over the area right through 00z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Just a little diversion, the south Florida area is also getting some rain action. About 0.50 progged for Miami through this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms. Minor compared to NYC . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Yep..funny if it was the 23rd it wouldn't have even cracked the top 5 Yeah. But NYC is about to crack 2" for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Just to show you how bad the NAM is, it has less than 0.05" of rain falling today region wide. The models have been fairly useless in this event so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Just to show you how bad the NAM is, it has less than 0.05" of rain falling today region wide. The models have been fairly useless in this event so far. Must be the missing satellite data!!!!! (I think the models have been pretty good actually) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Anyone have a good, detailed 24 hour+ loop of the radar from this storm so far? COD goes to 200 frames so the crazy band last night is missing from the loop. this program lets you go back a few days: https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/weatherscope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Must be the missing satellite data!!!!! (I think the models have been pretty good actually) None of the models really had the rain into the city and central NJ that occured yesterday morning. They were further south over SNJ. Last night the models were too far south and east with that convective blob that crossed from Long Island into NJ. The models were too far North in New England saying that the heaviest rains would be up into Maine when in reality they have been in MA. Today the models were too far east with the band coming through the LHV and crossing into NNJ. And none of the models really did well with the wind threat. Wasn't till a few high res models started picking it up yesterday. Overall the models did a great job of sniffing out the storm and that it would be a slow mover. I guess you can't expect them to be very accurate with QPF considering the convective elements involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 None of the models really had the rain into the city and central NJ that occured yesterday morning. The 4km NAM and HRRR both showed that band exactly as it happened last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 The 4km NAM and HRRR both showed that band exactly as it happened last night. Wasn't the 10/22 00z ECMWF bascially dry from NYC West? The 12z 4k NAM yesterday was basically dry the rest of the way, just scattered showers. The 12k NAM was a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Quiet here today because most of the rain has been west of the city since dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 The waves are essentially flat which is rare for a nor'easter of this caliber. Reminds me of the Boxing Day storm. The straight north winds blow down any swell created in the Se quadrant of the storm. Overall a nice storm. My moms plane was diverted from lga to JFK last night after two failed landing attempts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Quiet here today because most of the rain has been west of the city since dawn. Not much to talk about. Its rainy and dreary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 The waves are essentially flat which is rare for a nor'easter of this caliber. Reminds me of the Boxing Day storm. The straight north winds blow down any swell created in the Se quadrant of the storm. Overall a nice storm. My moms plane was diverted from lga to JFK last night after two failed landing attempts. LI sound waves have been 3'-6' since yesterday. That's very impressive for the sound. Like you said, North wind is off land and flattens the ocean out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Cool and raw outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Cool and raw outside Yet we're still pulling positive departure days dew to the warm mins. A +2 or greater October looks like a lock to me with more warmth next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 With 0.40" today, storm total of 1.60". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Anyone have a good, detailed 24 hour+ loop of the radar from this storm so far? COD goes to 200 frames so the crazy band last night is missing from the loop.here's a 24 hour loop ending 18z today: http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KDIX∏=bref1&bkgr=black&endDate=20141023&endTime=18&duration=24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 here's a 24 hour loop ending 18z today: http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KDIX∏=bref1&bkgr=black&endDate=20141023&endTime=18&duration=24 Fantastic thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Max winds just updated: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS NYC/LA GUARDIA 41 1114 PM 10/22 ASOS NYC/JFK AIRPORT 39 920 PM 10/22 ASOS 1 NNE EAST NEW LONDO 51 344 AM 10/23 MESONET BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT 48 1257 AM 10/23 ASOS MIDDLE BEACH 50 1100 PM 10/22 MESONET 1 E POINT LOOKOUT 45 232 AM 10/23 MESONET WESTHAMPTON AIRPORT 52 715 PM 10/22 ASOS EATONS NECK 51 215 AM 10/23 MESONETNAPEAGUE 48 201 AM 10/23 MESONET1 NNE CRYSTAL BROOK 48 800 PM 10/22 MESONETMECOX 46 641 PM 10/22 MESONETISLIP AIRPORT 46 1040 PM 10/22 ASOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Latest Storm Totals: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 1.62" total here and 4.20" for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Jersey Shore jackpot. ...OCEAN COUNTY...2 NNE BRICK TWP 3.88 830 AM 10/23 COCORAHSNW PINE BEACH 3.10 800 AM 10/23 COCORAHS 1233 PM HAIL BRICK TWP 40.07N 74.12W10/21/2014 M0.25 INCH OCEAN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER1235 PM HAIL BRICK TWP 40.07N 74.12W10/21/2014 M0.50 INCH OCEAN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER1235 PM HAIL BRICK TWP 40.07N 74.12W10/21/2014 M0.75 INCH OCEAN NJ SOCIAL MEDIA1245 PM HAIL TOMS RIVER 39.95N 74.20W10/21/2014 M0.25 INCH OCEAN NJ PUBLIC1256 PM HAIL COLTS NECK 40.29N 74.17W10/21/2014 M0.25 INCH MONMOUTH NJ TRAINED SPOTTER0100 PM HAIL BAYVILLE 39.91N 74.15W10/21/2014 M0.25 INCH OCEAN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER0105 PM HAIL POINT PLEASANT 40.08N 74.07W10/21/2014 M0.25 INCH OCEAN NJ COCORAHS0208 PM WATER SPOUT 1 E SEASIDE HEIGHTS 39.94N 74.05W10/21/2014 ANZ451 NJ SOCIAL MEDIA0445 PM HAIL JEFFERSON TWP 40.96N 74.59W10/21/2014 M0.25 INCH MORRIS NJ TRAINED SPOTTER Small waterspout off Lavallette shortly after 2:00 p.m. by JSHN contributor Matt Burk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Latest Storm Totals: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS How often does CPK jackpot! Pretty cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 How often does CPK jackpot! Pretty cool NYC jackpots quite often during snow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 NYC jackpots quite often during snow events. NYC as in JFK lga and cpk? Regardless given the amount of reports I find it cool. Last night it looked like eastern li had it in the bag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 NYC as in JFK lga and cpk? Regardless given the amount of reports I find it cool. Last night it looked like eastern li had it in the bag NYC as in KNYC, Central Park. They have jack potted many times during snow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cygnus X-1 Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Wouldn't this eclipse blocking mess be better described as a cut off low, rather than a Nor'easter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Wouldn't this eclipse blocking mess be better described as a cut off low, rather than a Nor'easter? Cut off low pressure systems are usually in the upper levels and typically do not deepen very much. Here you had the initial cyclogenesis and the deepening phase which occured on Wednesday and into Wednesday night which was aided by a strengthening LLJ. On Thursday the low began to occlude and weaken. The result has been essentially a rotting low pressure system that more or less rained itself out over us. The epic paste bomb from late February 2010 essentially did the same thing. This setup during January would have likely produced something epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cygnus X-1 Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Cut off low pressure systems are usually in the upper levels and typically do not deepen very much. Here you had the initial cyclogenesis and the deepening phase which occured on Wednesday and into Wednesday night which was aided by a strengthening LLJ. On Thursday the low began to occlude and weaken. The result has been essentially a rotting low pressure system that more or less rained itself out over us. The epic paste bomb from late February 2010 essentially did the same thing. This setup during January would have likely produced something epic. Interesting. I just saw it as a low not strung by the jet stream; a sit and spin crap fest. Thank you for your response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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