Allsnow Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 First potential cutoff noreaster Euro 1.00+ for area Gfs .5 for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 Basically it's a few dreary cooler days with occasional showers before we go unseasonably mild again. Looks like a +2 or greater month is a strong possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 Basically it's a few dreary cooler days with occasional showers before we go unseasonably mild again. Looks like a +2 or greater month is a strong possibility. We're +2.8 so were sure to finish above normal but I dont see any widespread 70s for the duration of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 Nice noreaster on the euro for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 20, 2014 Author Share Posted October 20, 2014 00z euro is still pretty wet for the area. It stalls the storm further south then the gfs which leads to the higher rainfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 00z euro is still pretty wet fit the area. It stalls the storm further south then the gfs which leads to the higher rainfall How are the ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 20, 2014 Author Share Posted October 20, 2014 How are the ensembles? Similar to op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 I really wouldn't take model QPF forecasts too seriously with this event. Systems that cut off are notorious for producing excessive rainfall wherever the best features setup. In this case, it looks like the area will be on the backside of the low so a lot of the rain should go more towards New England. It will still be cool and showery with periods of heavier rains, but not as bad as it could of been with the 500mb low over say Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 The 12z NAM is considerably wetter for nothern areas, especially portions of the LHV and northeast NJ. Much like the last rain event, it's going to come down to the exact location of the various waves of precip. This doesn't look like a widespread steady rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 12z NAM totals with the system still ongoing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 12z Nam went toward the Euro and Ensembles. Euro and the ensembles have been wetter for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Hoping that the meh solution on the GFS is out to lunch. Can't think of many worse outcomes than days of drizzle and light rain with chilly temps and breezy conditions. If it's going to be nasty then let it trully be nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 at this point looks like its just going to be a disgusting couple of days. cant wait for this to be outta here that's for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Hoping that the meh solution on the GFS is out to lunch. Can't think of many worse outcomes than days of drizzle and light rain with chilly temps and breezy conditions. If it's going to be nasty then let it trully be nasty. Considering how dry its been around here the last few months and practically every "event" has underperformed for most of the metro - I would lean more towards the dryer GFS solution verifying http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014102012/gfs_apcpn_neus_18.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Considering how dry its been around here the last few months and practically every "event" has underperformed for most of the metro - I would lean more towards the dryer GFS solution verifying http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014102012/gfs_apcpn_neus_18.png It hasn't been dry, at least not up by me. Measurable rain at least 3-4 days a week since Labor Day. Before that was dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 The 12z EURO is at least an inch plus for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 It hasn't been dry, at least not up by me. Measurable rain at least 3-4 days a week since Labor Day. Before that was dry. http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx?northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 It hasn't been dry, at least not up by me. Measurable rain at least 3-4 days a week since Labor Day. Before that was dry. 3 - 4 days a week since labor day ???? yeah right - then why are you under the abnormally dry area on this map ? - if you have had 3 - 4 days of precip per week in the last 7 weeks you wouldn't be abnormally dry. http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx?northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx?northeastI can only go by what I've experienced and that has been a lot more rain the last few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 3 - 4 days a week since labor day ???? yeah right - then why are you under the abnormally dry area on this map ? - if you have had 3 - 4 days of precip per week in the last 7 weeks you wouldn't be abnormally dry. http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx?northeast Because we had virtually zero rain here in July and August outside of a rouge thunderstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Because we had virtually zero rain here in July and August outside of a rouge thunderstorm Well show me a reporting station closer then Newark to your location and post it here - Newark is only a few miles south of you correct ? And they have only had 60 % of their normal precip amount since September 1st Labor Day http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.cdus41.EWR.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 It has rained but still overall a bit below normal the past 6 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Well show me a reporting station closer then Newark to your location and post it here - Newark is only a few miles south of you correct ? And they have only had 60 % of their normal precip amount since September 1st Labor Day http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.cdus41.EWR.KOKX.html From my house to Newark Airport is just over 29 miles per google maps. By way of the crow is probably closer to 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 The activity haas picked up over the past few weeks even if the net result is still below normal precip. But we get events like this week and others and it will probably even out. With the El Niño, warm east coast waters, and a more active subtropical jet we should see the precip pick up going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 I accidentially deleted my previous post because it was showing as a duplicate and then it wasn't. I used Caldwell Airport since that's less than ten miles from my house. So far we're at 8 days with measurable rain there out of 20 or 40% for a weekly average of 2.8 days per week. September was officially drier than I thought, but the second half of the month was more active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Anyway the whole point is that the dry begets dry ship has sailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Hard to tell off the free maps but the 15z SREF mean looks considerably further southwest and wetter for the area. I think we see two areas of heavy rain, with the main slug into Maine and a secondary slug into the LHV and NNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 The Euro ensemble mean is really juicy for the area. Roughly six panels of significant rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 12z Euro OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 As I suspected, the 15z SREF had more members shift SW 15z VS 09z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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