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Massive Nor'easter Disco 10/21-25


Damage In Tolland

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Still pouring down this way. I'm only about 3 miles from the BOX office in the industrial park, so I go by their numbers for snow/rain. They had 3.6" earlier this afternoon. Must be over 4" by now

Yeah this was the drought buster we needed. I am a stones throw away from that office and I assume i am over four inches now. Pouring

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"Even a blind bird catches a bird once in a while"

 

Yep....It reminds me of a tale a professor once told me in a business class.  He said that if you took a group of 1000 people and the first day you told half the people that a stock was going up and the other half that it was going down and repeated this every day till you had 10 people, those 10 people would think you're a genius because you're always right.  I suppose you can do that with a forecast as well.  The problem is that everyone here can see your call but casual users wouldn't and after a while they'd think that you're a genius.

 

Speaking of the storm, there were some impressive wind gusts here.  I had one last evening that broke off a large limb from a tree along my road.  It landed right on my cable TV line taking out my Internet access and leaving a line down across the street until this afternoon.

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Well weenies give weenie props quite often..but to get the mets to actually admit that we do know our stuff and can do a good job is pretty rare.. almost never ..so it's special.

Buit thank you my dear friend

Hey! I gave you props yesterday! Old people have feelings too...

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Well it's no CA drought, but this was the driest I can ever recall. The river that barely was flowing is now moving nicely.

meh, tertiary river, water tables/reservoirs were fine, to me anyways drought is a long term kind of deal.We have had a long term precip deficit though running 70 to 85% of normal over the past 3 years
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Yep....It reminds me of a tale a professor once told me in a business class.  He said that if you took a group of 1000 people and the first day you told half the people that a stock was going up and the other half that it was going down and repeated this every day till you had 10 people, those 10 people would think you're a genius because you're always right.  I suppose you can do that with a forecast as well.  The problem is that everyone here can see your call but casual users wouldn't and after a while they'd think that you're a genius.

 

Speaking of the storm, there were some impressive wind gusts here.  I had one last evening that broke off a large limb from a tree along my road.  It landed right on my cable TV line taking out my Internet access and leaving a line down across the street until this afternoon.

Yeah our general area had some 45-50 Mph gusts last night.. I submitted the trees down on wires report to BOX this morning ,but they ignored it because they didn't have any advisories out for the county

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Well weenies give weenie props quite often..but to get the mets to actually admit that we do know our stuff and can do a good job is pretty rare.. almost never ..so it's special.

Buit thank you my dear friend

If credit is being given, wasn't the 24-36 hours of wind call one of Matt Noyes' on Twitter?

I recall the mets questioning that and the reply being a link to a tweet of a write-up and some ECM wind probabilities.

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When there's damage in a big event and they don't have "said" areas under an advisory.. I've noticed they mysteriously don't show up on the LSR

 

Chances are winds stayed under advisory criteria though so I don't know why it would matter either way. Only Ledge Light, KHVN, and KBDR gusted over 40 knots. 

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If credit is being given, wasn't the 24-36 hours of wind call one of Matt Noyes' on Twitter?

I recall the mets questioning that and the reply being a link to a tweet of a write-up and some ECM wind probabilities.

He had said on Monday he thought BOS would gust to 50 mph but then backed off on that on Tuesday and said non -damaging winds.. Then ramped them back up Wed AM. But the 36 hours thing was not him no.
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He had said on Monday he thought BOS would gust to 50 mph but then backed off on that on Tuesday and said non -damaging winds.. Then ramped them back up Wed AM. But the 36 hours thing was not him no.

Ahhh you're right. The first couple pages of this thread are pretty funny in hindsight.

Models have BOS gusting up to 45-50 mph for like 36 hours

link?

Euro wind probs and Nam. Have a look

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Look how bad some of those model forecasts were SUN/MON... we won't come close to 3" up here in VT, while this run had a blob of green (0.25-0.49") just south of BOS, in an area that got 4-6".

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

 

But with each model run, the tickle south did occur. Models had the low moving near the cc canal at some point. Ensembles were always a bit SE of the op. One thing models seem to underestimate is the QPF in the 1st 6hrs that models boost QPF. IOW, models all of the sudden jumped with 6hr QPF in BOS after 00s, but then lifted north and brought heavier QPF in the modeled TROWAL. It seems like when the heavier QPF gets established, many time mesoscale areas jackpot because everything is maxing out quickly in those first several hours, vs it moving north and sort of losing its punch. Not always, but our heavy rain events have displayed that before.

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